Every year when preparing for my fantasy draft, I come up with a plan of who I am going to take in every round. Anyone that does fantasy knows that it is impossible to get everyone you want. However, I once again had this list, so I thought I'd share it.
Here' how it works:
1) I go by the ADP rankings on Mockdraftcentral.com
2) I select which player I'd ideally want to draft from every set of 10 (1-10, 11-20, 21-30, etc)
3) I adjust accordingly based on the need to fill all position and backup every position
It's pretty simple, so here's the players I took and where they were ranked:
1-10: (5) Aaron Rodgers
11-20: (12) Jimmy Graham
21-30: (21) Steven Jackson
31-40: (38) Brandon Marshall
41-50: (41) AJ Green
51-60: (54) Jordy Nelson
61-70: (65) BenJarvus Green-Ellis
71-80: (71) Donald Brown
81-90: (83) Dwayne Bowe
91-100: (95) Jay Cutler
101-110: (105) Eric Decker
111-120: (113) Cedric Benson
121-130: (130) Houston
131-140: (140) Titus Young
141-150: (14!) Robbie Gould
Here' the roster breakdown:
QB: Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler
WR: Brandon Marshall, AJ Green, Jordy Nelson, Dwayne Bowe, Eric Decker, Titus Young
RB: Steven Jackson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Donald Brown, Cedric Benson
TE: Jimmy Graham
K: Robbie Gould
DEF: Houston
Overall, I feel this team would be a lock for the playoffs in any league. Rodgers is nearly unstoppable and Jimmy Graham is going to end the year in his own tier when it comes to tight ends (I like Gronk, but his numbers will be well under Graham's). Brandon Marshall is back with the Cutler; together they were one of the most dangerous aerial attacks. I don't actually like the Jordy Nelson pick (I think he had his career year last year, but he was the best player available. Bowe should return to form this season, Decker will be Peyton's favorite target (which equals big fantasy production) and Titus Young is in a situation in which he could be a top-15 fantasy WR. I believe in the Law Firm more than most and SJax still has something left in the tank. Brown and Benson are both starting runningbacks and could easily find themselves in the starting lineup depending on matchups. If you have this team or something close to it, you should be happy.
Friday, September 7, 2012
Monday, August 20, 2012
Erd's Guide to Fantasy Football 2012
Who should I draft with the 2nd pick? Should I target a QB in round 1? If I don't get a QB early, who should I target? What rookie will have the biggest impact?
These are all questions that are commonplace at this time of the year. As we approach the week 3 of the preseason, fantasy football drafts are in full swing. Every expert has posted their mock drafts, sleepers, busts, etc., but if you read enough of them, you realize there are very few things that are a consensus when it comes to fantasy football. Unfortunately, most of the time the "experts" get it wrong. This doesn't mean they don't know anything, it's just the nature of the game. People don't want to read "don't draft rookies, they aren't proven" or "when in doubt, take the best player available". That simply doesn't sell tickets. They are put in a position to name a player and that's what they do.
I did not want to do that, so I'm just going to give you my top 10 at each position. More importantly though, I'm going to give you the draft strategy I've used for years. Some details of it have changed as the fantasy landscape has, but the idea remains the same. But first, let's answer those questions:
Here's a little disclosure before we begin:
Like any advice, you always need to take your league's scoring system into consideration. My advice is geared towards a league that starts QB, WRx3, RBx2, TE, FLEX, K, DEF. Scoring is (Pass TD-6, 25 pass yards-1, Rush/Receiving TD-6, 10 yards rush/receiving-1, .5 points per reception).
Who should I draft with the 2nd pick?
This is simple for me, it's Aaron Rodgers. Now for the old school fantasy managers like myself, it aches me to throw out the idea of not going RB with my first pick, but the game has changed. RB's are no longer the fantasy beasts, top tier QB's are. I could go into all the statistics, but I don't have the time. Just trust me on this one. Just consider this stat-line for Rodgers: (250 yards/ 3 TD/ 1 INT). Now most people would consider that a mediocre game for the league's best QB, but compare that to this stat-line for Ray Rice: (120 yards, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 30 yards, 1 TD). That would be a great stat-line for any RB on your fantasy team. Well the difference between Rodgers' average game and Rice's very good game is 3 points. In 15 games, Rodgers' averaged 32.5 points/week, Rice averaged just over 21 points/week in his 16 games. So there it is in a nutshell. Rodgers is not only the more consistent fantasy scorer, but also the safer pick, given the health of RB's in the league. Here is the segue into the next question.
Should I target a QB in round 1?
I already said I would take Rodgers with the 2nd pick, but I'd probably take him with the 1st pick. I will answer this question by building upon my last answer. Rodgers averaged 32.5 points/week, while the #10 fantasy QB averaged 18.1 points/week. Rice averaged 21.0 points/week, while the #10 RB average 12.7 points/week. It is just a matter of consistency. A top tier QB is a better bet than a top tier RB. I would take Rodgers, Brady or Brees in the 1st round without any hesitation. However, my next few QB's (Stafford, Cutler, Newton) don't have the track record of consistency, so if you don't get one of the top 3, you should go elsewhere in round 1.
If I don't get a QB early, who should I target?
Outside of Rodgers/Brady/Brees, every QB has question marks going into this season. You will probably see those 3, as well as Stafford and Newton gone in the first 2 rounds. According to most rankings, you would be looking at Vick, Eli, Peyton, Romo and Rivers next. These are solid QB's, but you are going to get better value with a WR/RB in rounds 3-6. You'll likely see those guys go, and you'll probably see some joker take RG3 or Luck too early also. By round 7, you probably will see 8-12 QB's get drafted, depending on the size of your league. At this point, you should pull the trigger on Cutler, Ryan, or Schaub (I have Cutler ranked as my #5 QB, but you'll see that in my rankings later). If you don't get one of the perennial top tier QB's, be patient, there is plenty of value to get later.
What rookie will have the biggest impact?
Last year we saw rookies make a big impact (AJ Green, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, etc.) so there's no reason to say that rookies can't help out your fantasy team. But I'll say this once, DRAFT ROOKIES AT YOUR OWN RISK! There is a lot of hype and expectations for Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, David Wilson, RG3, Andrew Luck, Justin Blackmon, etc., but they all have one thing in common, they haven't played a regular season game yet. When it comes to rookies, people overpay way too much. That being said, Trent Richardson will indeed have the biggest impact of any rookie. He will be running behind a very good offensive line and he will have a rookie QB, so you should expect a heavy work load. He's not worth the possible 1st round pick it will take to get him, but if you are dead set on taking a rookie or he falls to the 3rd round, then I say he's your man.
Now that we have all that out of the way, here is the strategy I approach every draft with:
1. Don't Overpay For One Big Year
Every year, you see guys who haven't done much get taken way too early. Let's take Eddie Royal for example. In the 2008 season, rookie WR Eddie Royal broke out with 91 catches, 980 yards and 4 TD's. The following season, people were taking him far ahead of consistent receivers like Donald Driver, who in 2008 had 74 catches, 1012 yards, 5 TD's in 2008, which was his 5th straight 1000 yard season. Well as they say, the rest is history. Driver went on to notch 70 catches, 1061 yards and 6 TD's in 2009. As for Royal, he has notched a total of 115 catches, 1127 yards, and 4 TD's over the last 3 seasons. Ironically, Royal is a decent sleeper to bounce-back in San Diego this year, but when you have the choice, take the consistent producer over the one year wonder.
2. Pay Attention To Details
Situations change from year to year in the NFL. Players get traded, coaches get fired, schemes get changed, so you have to pay attention to the details. A lot of people are following the Peyton Manning situation closely to see if he's healthy, but I'm not concerned, because I'm not drafting him. Peyton is one of the greatest QB's to play the game, but there are too many changes for it to work well. He no longer has Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, so there goes any familiarity he had with his targets. He is going from playing in ideal playing conditions indoors in Indianapolis to playing outside, up in the mountains of Denver. The one knock on Peyton was his postseason performance, which coincidentally takes place in January, up in the snow and cold. He could have a good year, but watch for the warning signs.
3. Sexy Picks Don't Win Championships
Everyone wants to make the sexy pick that gets the draft room buzzing "that's a great pick bro" or "I love that pick", but think of it this way, draft picks are like girlfriends. Yeah, you want the girlfriend that is so hot that your friends invite her to hang out at the fantasy draft just to look at her, but in reality, the girlfriend that cooks the wings, serves up the appetizers, and delivers the beer to the draft room is by far the better pick. So what does that mean this year? Ryan Mathews' #4 ranking in Yahoo! will get your friends excited at the draft, but #39 ranked Steven Jackson will continue to make you happy every week.
4. Take A Chance Late
I've been preaching consistency early in the draft, but if you look at my teams, you'll see I draft for upside after my first 6-7 picks. Once you start to fill your starting spots, start looking at your sleepers. Reaching for someone in the 8th round isn't going to hurt your team if you have a starting lineup full of consistent producers. It is all about risk vs. reward, so now is your time to make your splash.
5. Please Don't Take A Kicker Or Defense Early
I'm not going to talk about taking kickers much, because if you are not waiting until the last round to grab one, you probably aren't winning anyways. Excluding Akers (ranked #20 going into the year) who had a huge year last year, 28 points separated the #2 and #16 kickers, only 1.75 points/week. So please, don't draft a kicker until the last round, they aren't worth it. Now let's get to defense. It's a little trickier because defense strategy depends on the size of the league. If you are in a 10 team league or smaller, you should be using the free agent pool to play matchups every week. Most managers will have at most 2 defenses on their roster, meaning in a 10-team league, you will 14 defenses to choose from every week. Now if your league is 12 teams or bigger, you probably don't want to go this route. Your defense pool will probably be in the single digits, so getting a solid defense is much more necessary, but you still shouldn't take them early. Keep in mind that defenses change every year in the NFL. The New York Jets defense was the top ranked fantasy defense only 2 years ago, but now they are ranked #10. You simply can't predict how well a defense will be, so why take the risk early?
I hope I still have your attention, because here are my rankings:
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers
Tom Brady
Drew Brees
Matthew Stafford
Jay Cutler
Cam Newton
Michael Vick
Eli Manning
Matt Ryan
Tony Romo
Runningback
Arian Foster
LeSean McCoy
Ray Rice
Chris Johnson
Darren McFadden
Matt Forte
Maurice Jones-Drew
Adrian Peterson
Ryan Mathews
Trent Richardson
Wide Receiver
Calvin Johnson
Brandon Marshall
Larry Fitzgerald
Andre Johnson
AJ Green
Victor Cruz
Roddy White
Greg Jennings
Wes Welker
Hakeem Nicks
Tight End
Jimmy Graham
Rob Gronkowski
Vernon Davis
Antonio Gates
Jermichael Finley
Aaron Hernandez
Brandon Pettigrew
Fred Davis
Jason Witten
Owen Daniels
If you made it this far, thanks for reading. Feel free to share you thoughts and good luck on draft day!
-Erd
These are all questions that are commonplace at this time of the year. As we approach the week 3 of the preseason, fantasy football drafts are in full swing. Every expert has posted their mock drafts, sleepers, busts, etc., but if you read enough of them, you realize there are very few things that are a consensus when it comes to fantasy football. Unfortunately, most of the time the "experts" get it wrong. This doesn't mean they don't know anything, it's just the nature of the game. People don't want to read "don't draft rookies, they aren't proven" or "when in doubt, take the best player available". That simply doesn't sell tickets. They are put in a position to name a player and that's what they do.
I did not want to do that, so I'm just going to give you my top 10 at each position. More importantly though, I'm going to give you the draft strategy I've used for years. Some details of it have changed as the fantasy landscape has, but the idea remains the same. But first, let's answer those questions:
Here's a little disclosure before we begin:
Like any advice, you always need to take your league's scoring system into consideration. My advice is geared towards a league that starts QB, WRx3, RBx2, TE, FLEX, K, DEF. Scoring is (Pass TD-6, 25 pass yards-1, Rush/Receiving TD-6, 10 yards rush/receiving-1, .5 points per reception).
Who should I draft with the 2nd pick?
This is simple for me, it's Aaron Rodgers. Now for the old school fantasy managers like myself, it aches me to throw out the idea of not going RB with my first pick, but the game has changed. RB's are no longer the fantasy beasts, top tier QB's are. I could go into all the statistics, but I don't have the time. Just trust me on this one. Just consider this stat-line for Rodgers: (250 yards/ 3 TD/ 1 INT). Now most people would consider that a mediocre game for the league's best QB, but compare that to this stat-line for Ray Rice: (120 yards, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 30 yards, 1 TD). That would be a great stat-line for any RB on your fantasy team. Well the difference between Rodgers' average game and Rice's very good game is 3 points. In 15 games, Rodgers' averaged 32.5 points/week, Rice averaged just over 21 points/week in his 16 games. So there it is in a nutshell. Rodgers is not only the more consistent fantasy scorer, but also the safer pick, given the health of RB's in the league. Here is the segue into the next question.
Should I target a QB in round 1?
I already said I would take Rodgers with the 2nd pick, but I'd probably take him with the 1st pick. I will answer this question by building upon my last answer. Rodgers averaged 32.5 points/week, while the #10 fantasy QB averaged 18.1 points/week. Rice averaged 21.0 points/week, while the #10 RB average 12.7 points/week. It is just a matter of consistency. A top tier QB is a better bet than a top tier RB. I would take Rodgers, Brady or Brees in the 1st round without any hesitation. However, my next few QB's (Stafford, Cutler, Newton) don't have the track record of consistency, so if you don't get one of the top 3, you should go elsewhere in round 1.
If I don't get a QB early, who should I target?
Outside of Rodgers/Brady/Brees, every QB has question marks going into this season. You will probably see those 3, as well as Stafford and Newton gone in the first 2 rounds. According to most rankings, you would be looking at Vick, Eli, Peyton, Romo and Rivers next. These are solid QB's, but you are going to get better value with a WR/RB in rounds 3-6. You'll likely see those guys go, and you'll probably see some joker take RG3 or Luck too early also. By round 7, you probably will see 8-12 QB's get drafted, depending on the size of your league. At this point, you should pull the trigger on Cutler, Ryan, or Schaub (I have Cutler ranked as my #5 QB, but you'll see that in my rankings later). If you don't get one of the perennial top tier QB's, be patient, there is plenty of value to get later.
What rookie will have the biggest impact?
Last year we saw rookies make a big impact (AJ Green, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, etc.) so there's no reason to say that rookies can't help out your fantasy team. But I'll say this once, DRAFT ROOKIES AT YOUR OWN RISK! There is a lot of hype and expectations for Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, David Wilson, RG3, Andrew Luck, Justin Blackmon, etc., but they all have one thing in common, they haven't played a regular season game yet. When it comes to rookies, people overpay way too much. That being said, Trent Richardson will indeed have the biggest impact of any rookie. He will be running behind a very good offensive line and he will have a rookie QB, so you should expect a heavy work load. He's not worth the possible 1st round pick it will take to get him, but if you are dead set on taking a rookie or he falls to the 3rd round, then I say he's your man.
Now that we have all that out of the way, here is the strategy I approach every draft with:
1. Don't Overpay For One Big Year
Every year, you see guys who haven't done much get taken way too early. Let's take Eddie Royal for example. In the 2008 season, rookie WR Eddie Royal broke out with 91 catches, 980 yards and 4 TD's. The following season, people were taking him far ahead of consistent receivers like Donald Driver, who in 2008 had 74 catches, 1012 yards, 5 TD's in 2008, which was his 5th straight 1000 yard season. Well as they say, the rest is history. Driver went on to notch 70 catches, 1061 yards and 6 TD's in 2009. As for Royal, he has notched a total of 115 catches, 1127 yards, and 4 TD's over the last 3 seasons. Ironically, Royal is a decent sleeper to bounce-back in San Diego this year, but when you have the choice, take the consistent producer over the one year wonder.
2. Pay Attention To Details
Situations change from year to year in the NFL. Players get traded, coaches get fired, schemes get changed, so you have to pay attention to the details. A lot of people are following the Peyton Manning situation closely to see if he's healthy, but I'm not concerned, because I'm not drafting him. Peyton is one of the greatest QB's to play the game, but there are too many changes for it to work well. He no longer has Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, so there goes any familiarity he had with his targets. He is going from playing in ideal playing conditions indoors in Indianapolis to playing outside, up in the mountains of Denver. The one knock on Peyton was his postseason performance, which coincidentally takes place in January, up in the snow and cold. He could have a good year, but watch for the warning signs.
3. Sexy Picks Don't Win Championships
Everyone wants to make the sexy pick that gets the draft room buzzing "that's a great pick bro" or "I love that pick", but think of it this way, draft picks are like girlfriends. Yeah, you want the girlfriend that is so hot that your friends invite her to hang out at the fantasy draft just to look at her, but in reality, the girlfriend that cooks the wings, serves up the appetizers, and delivers the beer to the draft room is by far the better pick. So what does that mean this year? Ryan Mathews' #4 ranking in Yahoo! will get your friends excited at the draft, but #39 ranked Steven Jackson will continue to make you happy every week.
4. Take A Chance Late
I've been preaching consistency early in the draft, but if you look at my teams, you'll see I draft for upside after my first 6-7 picks. Once you start to fill your starting spots, start looking at your sleepers. Reaching for someone in the 8th round isn't going to hurt your team if you have a starting lineup full of consistent producers. It is all about risk vs. reward, so now is your time to make your splash.
5. Please Don't Take A Kicker Or Defense Early
I'm not going to talk about taking kickers much, because if you are not waiting until the last round to grab one, you probably aren't winning anyways. Excluding Akers (ranked #20 going into the year) who had a huge year last year, 28 points separated the #2 and #16 kickers, only 1.75 points/week. So please, don't draft a kicker until the last round, they aren't worth it. Now let's get to defense. It's a little trickier because defense strategy depends on the size of the league. If you are in a 10 team league or smaller, you should be using the free agent pool to play matchups every week. Most managers will have at most 2 defenses on their roster, meaning in a 10-team league, you will 14 defenses to choose from every week. Now if your league is 12 teams or bigger, you probably don't want to go this route. Your defense pool will probably be in the single digits, so getting a solid defense is much more necessary, but you still shouldn't take them early. Keep in mind that defenses change every year in the NFL. The New York Jets defense was the top ranked fantasy defense only 2 years ago, but now they are ranked #10. You simply can't predict how well a defense will be, so why take the risk early?
I hope I still have your attention, because here are my rankings:
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers
Tom Brady
Drew Brees
Matthew Stafford
Jay Cutler
Cam Newton
Michael Vick
Eli Manning
Matt Ryan
Tony Romo
Runningback
Arian Foster
LeSean McCoy
Ray Rice
Chris Johnson
Darren McFadden
Matt Forte
Maurice Jones-Drew
Adrian Peterson
Ryan Mathews
Trent Richardson
Wide Receiver
Calvin Johnson
Brandon Marshall
Larry Fitzgerald
Andre Johnson
AJ Green
Victor Cruz
Roddy White
Greg Jennings
Wes Welker
Hakeem Nicks
Tight End
Jimmy Graham
Rob Gronkowski
Vernon Davis
Antonio Gates
Jermichael Finley
Aaron Hernandez
Brandon Pettigrew
Fred Davis
Jason Witten
Owen Daniels
If you made it this far, thanks for reading. Feel free to share you thoughts and good luck on draft day!
-Erd
Thursday, June 7, 2012
US Open Picks
It's a week away now, and I'm really gearing up for the US Open. Whether you play fantasy golf or like to do some sports betting, you probably would like to know who is going to be in contention before it starts. Well I am here to tell you who I think will be in the picture on Sunday. I did my best impression of Moneyball and used some statistical analysis to calculate who has the skill set to do well next weekend. I could just list the best guys in the world and be done with it, but instead I'm giving you 4 golfers in the top 25, top 100 and outside the top 100 in the world rankings.. Do with this what you will.
Before I get into it, here are the factors I took into account to get my composite rankings:
Strokes Gained - Putting, Average Going For It Shot Distance, Average Distance After Going For It, Driving Accuracy, Scrambling, 3-Putt Avoidance, Last 3 Tournament success, Last 3 US Open success, World Rank
Golfers ranked 1-25:
Luke Donald - It should be no surprise to see the #1 player in the world on this list. Donald comes into the US Open playing well, having finished 12th, 1st, 6th and 3rd in his past four tournaments. All he needs now is a major. Donald is near the top in Strokes Gained - Putting, a stat which I used in my rankings. His game is solid all-around right now and his style of play should fair well next weekend. He'll make a lot of pars, but in the US Open that will keep him safely on the first page of the leaderboard. Statistically, Donald is my pick to win it.
Tiger Woods - It's amazing how badly Tiger seems to be playing, yet he is hitting the ball better than ever and has 2 wins on the season. He is ranked 1st in both total driving and ball striking for the first time since 2000, a year in which he happened to win 3 majors. He also is ranked 1st in Average Going For It Shot Distance and Average Distance After Going For It, meaning he is leaving himself in great position off the tee and he is hitting it close from there. The only thing that is holding Tiger back is putting. If Tiger can improve his mental approach on the greens and start dropping some putts, he will win multiple majors this year.
Sergio Garcia - Like Donald, Garcia is also chasing that first major win. He is getting close though, with top 10 finishes in 2 of his last 3 US Opens and top 12 finishes in each of his last 4 majors. At one point it seemed it was only a matter of time before Sergio notched his first major, but now the window is closing for Sergio. He's only 32, but he's not exactly in his prime either. A top 10 finish for Sergio is very likely, but he will need to play his best golf to be in contention late.
Zach Johnson - Johnson is one of the hottest golfers on the Tour right now, with a win and two runner-up finishes in his last four tournaments. He also has a major under his belt, unlike the majority of guys on this list. Much like Donald, Johnson is not going to be posting low scores, but he will be relevant on Sunday. In the end I don't see Johnson winning it, but he should have a solid showing.
Golfers ranked 26-100:
Jim Furyk - Every time it seems like Furyk is going to fade away, he comes back playing well. Although he hasn't fared well in majors in the past couple years, Furyk comes into the US Open playing solid golf. He won the US Open in 2003 and the FedEx cup in 2010, so Furyk clearly has what it takes to win. According to my rankings, a top 3 finish for Furyk is likely.
Bo Van Pelt - Van Pelt is a name you see on the leaderboards often, just rarely on the top. He only has one PGA Tour victory in his career, but his consistency has him at #30 in the world golf rankings. Van Pelt already has 5 top 10 finishes this year and will take that success into the US Open. A top 10 finish for Van Pelt is possible, and a top 20 is a certainty.
Nicolas Colsaerts - Nicolas has been playing great golf on the European Tour all year long, and is currently 6th in the Race To Dubai. Although Europeans don't usually fare well at the US Open, Colsaerts is playing great golf, which can translate to any course.
Ian Poulter - When you dress and act like Poulter does, you need to be able to back it up. Unfortunately, it isn't just him and Tiger, as he once predicted. That being said, Poulter does have a solid game and finished 7th at the Masters this year. Perhaps his prophecy comes true and it's just him and Tiger on Sunday afternoon, but likely he'll be in the clubhouse well before Tiger's off the course.
Golfers ranked 100+:
Jonas Blixt - You probably haven't hear of this guy, but this Swede played golf at Florida State and joined the PGA Tour this season. After a rough start, Blixt has finished 13th or better in four of his last 5 tournaments. You may see Blixt post a low round or two and find himself in the top 15 at the end of the tournament.
Michael Thompson - He hasn't done anything spectacular this year, perhaps that's why he is outside the top 100, but statistically Thompson isn't far away. He ranks near the top in Strokes Gained - Putting and both Going For It statistics. If ha can improve on his driving accuracy and keep the ball in the fairway, He could sneak into the top 20.
Davis Love III - It may be unfair to put DL3 in this list, but the Ryder Cup captain has played well at the US Open lately. DL3 finished T6 and T11 in 2010 and 2011 respectively. He had a stretch from 1995-2005 where he finished in the top 10 in 19 of 44 majors. It's unlikely that the 48-year-old will finish top 10 this year, but a top 20 is very possible.
Blake Adams - This guy is a total workaholic (if you get that reference). Frankly, there is a limited amount of players to choose from outside the top 100, and Adams is just a longshot. He did manage to finish in the top 20 in both the Memorial and The Players last month. A top 20 finish in a major would be a success for the first timer.
Stay tuned for my complete rankings for the entire field.
Before I get into it, here are the factors I took into account to get my composite rankings:
Strokes Gained - Putting, Average Going For It Shot Distance, Average Distance After Going For It, Driving Accuracy, Scrambling, 3-Putt Avoidance, Last 3 Tournament success, Last 3 US Open success, World Rank
Golfers ranked 1-25:
Luke Donald - It should be no surprise to see the #1 player in the world on this list. Donald comes into the US Open playing well, having finished 12th, 1st, 6th and 3rd in his past four tournaments. All he needs now is a major. Donald is near the top in Strokes Gained - Putting, a stat which I used in my rankings. His game is solid all-around right now and his style of play should fair well next weekend. He'll make a lot of pars, but in the US Open that will keep him safely on the first page of the leaderboard. Statistically, Donald is my pick to win it.
Tiger Woods - It's amazing how badly Tiger seems to be playing, yet he is hitting the ball better than ever and has 2 wins on the season. He is ranked 1st in both total driving and ball striking for the first time since 2000, a year in which he happened to win 3 majors. He also is ranked 1st in Average Going For It Shot Distance and Average Distance After Going For It, meaning he is leaving himself in great position off the tee and he is hitting it close from there. The only thing that is holding Tiger back is putting. If Tiger can improve his mental approach on the greens and start dropping some putts, he will win multiple majors this year.
Sergio Garcia - Like Donald, Garcia is also chasing that first major win. He is getting close though, with top 10 finishes in 2 of his last 3 US Opens and top 12 finishes in each of his last 4 majors. At one point it seemed it was only a matter of time before Sergio notched his first major, but now the window is closing for Sergio. He's only 32, but he's not exactly in his prime either. A top 10 finish for Sergio is very likely, but he will need to play his best golf to be in contention late.
Zach Johnson - Johnson is one of the hottest golfers on the Tour right now, with a win and two runner-up finishes in his last four tournaments. He also has a major under his belt, unlike the majority of guys on this list. Much like Donald, Johnson is not going to be posting low scores, but he will be relevant on Sunday. In the end I don't see Johnson winning it, but he should have a solid showing.
Golfers ranked 26-100:
Jim Furyk - Every time it seems like Furyk is going to fade away, he comes back playing well. Although he hasn't fared well in majors in the past couple years, Furyk comes into the US Open playing solid golf. He won the US Open in 2003 and the FedEx cup in 2010, so Furyk clearly has what it takes to win. According to my rankings, a top 3 finish for Furyk is likely.
Bo Van Pelt - Van Pelt is a name you see on the leaderboards often, just rarely on the top. He only has one PGA Tour victory in his career, but his consistency has him at #30 in the world golf rankings. Van Pelt already has 5 top 10 finishes this year and will take that success into the US Open. A top 10 finish for Van Pelt is possible, and a top 20 is a certainty.
Nicolas Colsaerts - Nicolas has been playing great golf on the European Tour all year long, and is currently 6th in the Race To Dubai. Although Europeans don't usually fare well at the US Open, Colsaerts is playing great golf, which can translate to any course.
Ian Poulter - When you dress and act like Poulter does, you need to be able to back it up. Unfortunately, it isn't just him and Tiger, as he once predicted. That being said, Poulter does have a solid game and finished 7th at the Masters this year. Perhaps his prophecy comes true and it's just him and Tiger on Sunday afternoon, but likely he'll be in the clubhouse well before Tiger's off the course.
Golfers ranked 100+:
Jonas Blixt - You probably haven't hear of this guy, but this Swede played golf at Florida State and joined the PGA Tour this season. After a rough start, Blixt has finished 13th or better in four of his last 5 tournaments. You may see Blixt post a low round or two and find himself in the top 15 at the end of the tournament.
Michael Thompson - He hasn't done anything spectacular this year, perhaps that's why he is outside the top 100, but statistically Thompson isn't far away. He ranks near the top in Strokes Gained - Putting and both Going For It statistics. If ha can improve on his driving accuracy and keep the ball in the fairway, He could sneak into the top 20.
Davis Love III - It may be unfair to put DL3 in this list, but the Ryder Cup captain has played well at the US Open lately. DL3 finished T6 and T11 in 2010 and 2011 respectively. He had a stretch from 1995-2005 where he finished in the top 10 in 19 of 44 majors. It's unlikely that the 48-year-old will finish top 10 this year, but a top 20 is very possible.
Blake Adams - This guy is a total workaholic (if you get that reference). Frankly, there is a limited amount of players to choose from outside the top 100, and Adams is just a longshot. He did manage to finish in the top 20 in both the Memorial and The Players last month. A top 20 finish in a major would be a success for the first timer.
Stay tuned for my complete rankings for the entire field.
Thursday, May 31, 2012
Playoffs, and Injuries, and Triple Crowns! Oh My!
It's that time of the year again, the time when football news isn't actually on the forefront. Well, except for the two super divas TO and 85 who made headlines in their ongoing attempts to become relevant again. The Stanley Cup Finals are underway, the NBA Conference Finals are underway, and it's almost Memorial Day, which marks the first significant point in the season for baseball. There is also some horse racing action going on, so we better get going.
NHL vs. NBA
Whether you are primarily watching the NHL or NBA at this time of the year probably depends on where you live and the color of your skin. This dichotomy amongst sports fan is unfortunate, as both sports have a lot to offer the casual fan. I grew up favoring the NBA, but now I favor the NHL. I can attribute this to one factor and that is parody. If you want to watch the favorite team win, watch the NBA, but if you want an intriguing series, you have to favor the NHL. Just look at the numbers.
The favorites in the NBA playoffs were Miami out of the East and San Antonio/OK City (depending which bandwagon you are on) out of the West. Clearly we are going to see these teams in the finals. If you look at the playoffs in a whole, 8* out of the 10 series were won by the higher seed (the asterisk is for the Philly/Chicago series, which wasn't an upset after Rose went out). Essentially, the only upset, if you can call it that, was the 5th seeded Clippers over the 4th seeded Grizzlies.
The NHL, in contrast, is what the casual fan should be watching. We have the 8th seeded Kings against the 6th seeded Devils in the finals. Unlike the NBA, 8 out of the 14 series were won by the lower seed. Folks in New York and Vancouver probably aren't too happy, but who else doesn't like to see upsets? Thanks to NBC there is actually good NHL playoff coverage this year, but unfortunately there is still is the ESPN bias towards the NBA. The LA Clippers have gotten more airplay than the LA Kings. If it weren't for Barry Melrose, I wouldn't see any NHL news on channel 1602.
So to channel my inter-Forrest Gump, "That's all I have to say about that." I know everyone always loves my predictions, so I'll take the Kings in 5 games to win the Cup. In the NBA, I'll take the Heat to sweep the Celtics and the Spurs to win it in 6. I'll take the Heat over the Spurs in 7 in the Finals.
MLB Injuries
The MLB is approaching what enthusiasts consider the first important date in the baseball season. We are nearly 2 months in and hot bats are cooling off and slow starters are heating up. Pujols' epic homer drought is now in the rear-view mirror as he now sits at 8 homers on the year. The horrible Red Sox are just 2.5 games out of the division lead, which is still held by the Orioles, although they have lost 5 straight. I'm not concerned about standings or statistics at this point of the year (except the possibility of a Triple Crown for Hamilton, which I will touch on later), I'm more concerned about the injuries that are piling up. My Brewers have had more injuries than I can possibly remember, but fortunately our top 3 (Braun, Grienke, Gallardo) are healthy and going strong. Unfortunately for other teams, injuries may shape up the league this year.
Let's look at some of the big names that are on the shelf and how it will affect the league:
Mariano Rivera (out for season): This is going to hurt the Yankees down the stretch. They still have the talent to win games, but I'm predicting they miss the playoffs this year.
Matt Kemp (TBD): Kemp just returned from the DL, but re-injured his hamstring and initial reports are that it might be worse this time. The Dodgers were looking like they were going to run away with the division, but the loss of Kemp for another month or two could open the door for the Giants, who will be getting Pablo Sandoval back soon.
Evan Longoria (out til late June/early July): The loss of Longoria is immeasurable for the Rays. Like Kemp, Longoria has a hamstring injury, which are easily re-aggravated. I expect Longoria to miss the month of June. If the Rays can hang on without him, they'll be fine, but if they drop a few games behind the Yankees and Red Sox, they may be on the outside come playoff time.
Roy Halladay (out til mid-July): Let's start by saying mid-July is the optimistic timetable for Halladay. Just when Phillies fans were starting to gear up for Utley and Howard to return, they lose one of the best pitchers in the game. They are in the most competitive division in the NL, so this could possibly end the Phillies' season if Halladay has any setback.
Jered Weaver (out til late June/early July): The Angels received good news about Weaver's injury, but it still is likely he will miss at least 3-4 starts. Things were looking up for the Angels as Pujols was heating up and Haren was getting dialed in, but the Angels should be able to weather this injury. They likely will not make a run at Texas for the division, but a wild card spot should be attainable for the Angels.
Triple Crowns!
I'll Have Another or Josh Hamilton? Will either be able to accomplish the rare feat? We'll know much sooner if I'll Have Another can get it done at Belmont, but that was almost in jeopardy today. If you just read that article, you read how close horse racing came to having the worst thing possible happen. Hamilton's fate is just as much on the edge. A month ago Matt Kemp was in these talks, but a re-aggravated hamstring injury has put an end to that story. Hamilton has an ever greater history of injuries. First and foremost, Hamilton needs to stay healthy. Second, he will likely need to hold off a couple veteran White Sox in Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn. Third, he will need a little luck. If we see one triple crown this year, that would be incredible, but if we saw two, it would be historic. Once again, it's a great time to be a sports fan!!
NHL vs. NBA
Whether you are primarily watching the NHL or NBA at this time of the year probably depends on where you live and the color of your skin. This dichotomy amongst sports fan is unfortunate, as both sports have a lot to offer the casual fan. I grew up favoring the NBA, but now I favor the NHL. I can attribute this to one factor and that is parody. If you want to watch the favorite team win, watch the NBA, but if you want an intriguing series, you have to favor the NHL. Just look at the numbers.
The favorites in the NBA playoffs were Miami out of the East and San Antonio/OK City (depending which bandwagon you are on) out of the West. Clearly we are going to see these teams in the finals. If you look at the playoffs in a whole, 8* out of the 10 series were won by the higher seed (the asterisk is for the Philly/Chicago series, which wasn't an upset after Rose went out). Essentially, the only upset, if you can call it that, was the 5th seeded Clippers over the 4th seeded Grizzlies.
The NHL, in contrast, is what the casual fan should be watching. We have the 8th seeded Kings against the 6th seeded Devils in the finals. Unlike the NBA, 8 out of the 14 series were won by the lower seed. Folks in New York and Vancouver probably aren't too happy, but who else doesn't like to see upsets? Thanks to NBC there is actually good NHL playoff coverage this year, but unfortunately there is still is the ESPN bias towards the NBA. The LA Clippers have gotten more airplay than the LA Kings. If it weren't for Barry Melrose, I wouldn't see any NHL news on channel 1602.
So to channel my inter-Forrest Gump, "That's all I have to say about that." I know everyone always loves my predictions, so I'll take the Kings in 5 games to win the Cup. In the NBA, I'll take the Heat to sweep the Celtics and the Spurs to win it in 6. I'll take the Heat over the Spurs in 7 in the Finals.
MLB Injuries
The MLB is approaching what enthusiasts consider the first important date in the baseball season. We are nearly 2 months in and hot bats are cooling off and slow starters are heating up. Pujols' epic homer drought is now in the rear-view mirror as he now sits at 8 homers on the year. The horrible Red Sox are just 2.5 games out of the division lead, which is still held by the Orioles, although they have lost 5 straight. I'm not concerned about standings or statistics at this point of the year (except the possibility of a Triple Crown for Hamilton, which I will touch on later), I'm more concerned about the injuries that are piling up. My Brewers have had more injuries than I can possibly remember, but fortunately our top 3 (Braun, Grienke, Gallardo) are healthy and going strong. Unfortunately for other teams, injuries may shape up the league this year.
Let's look at some of the big names that are on the shelf and how it will affect the league:
Mariano Rivera (out for season): This is going to hurt the Yankees down the stretch. They still have the talent to win games, but I'm predicting they miss the playoffs this year.
Matt Kemp (TBD): Kemp just returned from the DL, but re-injured his hamstring and initial reports are that it might be worse this time. The Dodgers were looking like they were going to run away with the division, but the loss of Kemp for another month or two could open the door for the Giants, who will be getting Pablo Sandoval back soon.
Evan Longoria (out til late June/early July): The loss of Longoria is immeasurable for the Rays. Like Kemp, Longoria has a hamstring injury, which are easily re-aggravated. I expect Longoria to miss the month of June. If the Rays can hang on without him, they'll be fine, but if they drop a few games behind the Yankees and Red Sox, they may be on the outside come playoff time.
Roy Halladay (out til mid-July): Let's start by saying mid-July is the optimistic timetable for Halladay. Just when Phillies fans were starting to gear up for Utley and Howard to return, they lose one of the best pitchers in the game. They are in the most competitive division in the NL, so this could possibly end the Phillies' season if Halladay has any setback.
Jered Weaver (out til late June/early July): The Angels received good news about Weaver's injury, but it still is likely he will miss at least 3-4 starts. Things were looking up for the Angels as Pujols was heating up and Haren was getting dialed in, but the Angels should be able to weather this injury. They likely will not make a run at Texas for the division, but a wild card spot should be attainable for the Angels.
Triple Crowns!
I'll Have Another or Josh Hamilton? Will either be able to accomplish the rare feat? We'll know much sooner if I'll Have Another can get it done at Belmont, but that was almost in jeopardy today. If you just read that article, you read how close horse racing came to having the worst thing possible happen. Hamilton's fate is just as much on the edge. A month ago Matt Kemp was in these talks, but a re-aggravated hamstring injury has put an end to that story. Hamilton has an ever greater history of injuries. First and foremost, Hamilton needs to stay healthy. Second, he will likely need to hold off a couple veteran White Sox in Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn. Third, he will need a little luck. If we see one triple crown this year, that would be incredible, but if we saw two, it would be historic. Once again, it's a great time to be a sports fan!!
Monday, April 30, 2012
Go Pack Go! Analyzing a "Boring" draft
What about the Packers?
The 2012 NFL draft has come and gone, and teams have made the next steps towards their futures. Some grasp at straws as they spiral downward, some toss their life savings behind unproven potential, and some just make damn smart decisions. The latter are usually the least talked about drafts, the "boring" picks. Nothing exciting happening here, just good football decisions. Call me a homer, but I see this in the Green Bay Packers 2012 draft. Let's keep in mind that this team was 1 hung over Sunday from running the table in 2012. They are not losing a whole lot on the offensive side of the ball. If anything, I think they are going to be better than last year. They had no real reason to address any issues in this draft, and yet they come away with 2 solid players in the late afternoon rounds on Saturday. A quarterback who will build himself and develop himself behind the league's best. No pressure, no push, just learn. They were also able to bring in a promising tackle with the same stipulations. They won't need to get immediate contribution, but in 2 year we could have a starting tackle. Those are really the sexy picks of the Packers. From there, it just gets boring... and good.
The best offensive team in NFL history could have walked to the Super Bowl with any form of an NFL -ish defense. Unfortunately, they did not have one. The Packers saw the true value of Cullen Jenkins and Nick Collins this past season. Cullen made EVERY linebacker better by keeping guys off them, and was able to penetrate the backfield occasionally. He needed to be blocked. Last year, BJ Raji, Clay Matthews, AJ Hawk... they all felt the pain of no Cullen plugging the front. With Nick Collins in the lineup, Sam Shields looked like a pro-bowl candidate. Morgan Burnett simply could not be what Collins was, and his absence will be the most difficult to address. But remember, this defense doesn't need to be the NFL's best... it just can't be the NFL's worst. The Packers addressed some concerns immediately in Free Agency. No, they didn't pay top dollar to the sexy free agents... they paid bargain prices for guys to come in and work for a job. Working for your job will bring the best out of anyone. At the very least, Anthony Hargrove and Daniel Muir will force those around them to play to their potential.
Fast forward to today, the week following the NFL draft. Ted Thompson immediately addressed the most glaring concern by picking Nick Perry and Jerel Worthy. Perry can be a force on the edge, and will make an immediate impact. Having a threat opposite Clay Matthews instantly makes this defense better than last season. Throw in Worthy, who has the potential to work inside, take up space, and still get in the backfield (see Jenkins, Cullen). Toss in Mike Daniels, and we have an all out battle just to make this roster. The presence of the newfound pass rush instantly improves the Packers' entire defense. Insert Casey Hayward. A solid corner with a nice ceiling, not to mention this kid is the definition of a ball hawk. Oh yeah, he gets to learn from Charles Woodson.... If Hayward is able to push for a starting role, he may actually move Chuck to the back of the defense, solving the problem of replacing Collins. Jerron McMillian can be a special teams contributor immediately, and can help with depth in the secondary. Don't expect to hear his name a lot, but expect him to grow. The biggest intrigue comes in Terrell Manning. There was once a time when this kid was a top prospect, and he slid a ways down to land in Green Bay. He will be a special team specialist his first year, but he has the potential to be a big contributor in Green Bay. I think we look back at this draft in 4 years, and Manning is listed as a big pick by the Packers. (I mean come on, he's got the #1 thing every star needs in GB... dreads!)
Overall, a very boring draft for the Packers... and a boring draft typically means a good draft. Look for the Packers to be Super Bowl favorites yet again this season.
The 2012 NFL draft has come and gone, and teams have made the next steps towards their futures. Some grasp at straws as they spiral downward, some toss their life savings behind unproven potential, and some just make damn smart decisions. The latter are usually the least talked about drafts, the "boring" picks. Nothing exciting happening here, just good football decisions. Call me a homer, but I see this in the Green Bay Packers 2012 draft. Let's keep in mind that this team was 1 hung over Sunday from running the table in 2012. They are not losing a whole lot on the offensive side of the ball. If anything, I think they are going to be better than last year. They had no real reason to address any issues in this draft, and yet they come away with 2 solid players in the late afternoon rounds on Saturday. A quarterback who will build himself and develop himself behind the league's best. No pressure, no push, just learn. They were also able to bring in a promising tackle with the same stipulations. They won't need to get immediate contribution, but in 2 year we could have a starting tackle. Those are really the sexy picks of the Packers. From there, it just gets boring... and good.
The best offensive team in NFL history could have walked to the Super Bowl with any form of an NFL -ish defense. Unfortunately, they did not have one. The Packers saw the true value of Cullen Jenkins and Nick Collins this past season. Cullen made EVERY linebacker better by keeping guys off them, and was able to penetrate the backfield occasionally. He needed to be blocked. Last year, BJ Raji, Clay Matthews, AJ Hawk... they all felt the pain of no Cullen plugging the front. With Nick Collins in the lineup, Sam Shields looked like a pro-bowl candidate. Morgan Burnett simply could not be what Collins was, and his absence will be the most difficult to address. But remember, this defense doesn't need to be the NFL's best... it just can't be the NFL's worst. The Packers addressed some concerns immediately in Free Agency. No, they didn't pay top dollar to the sexy free agents... they paid bargain prices for guys to come in and work for a job. Working for your job will bring the best out of anyone. At the very least, Anthony Hargrove and Daniel Muir will force those around them to play to their potential.
Fast forward to today, the week following the NFL draft. Ted Thompson immediately addressed the most glaring concern by picking Nick Perry and Jerel Worthy. Perry can be a force on the edge, and will make an immediate impact. Having a threat opposite Clay Matthews instantly makes this defense better than last season. Throw in Worthy, who has the potential to work inside, take up space, and still get in the backfield (see Jenkins, Cullen). Toss in Mike Daniels, and we have an all out battle just to make this roster. The presence of the newfound pass rush instantly improves the Packers' entire defense. Insert Casey Hayward. A solid corner with a nice ceiling, not to mention this kid is the definition of a ball hawk. Oh yeah, he gets to learn from Charles Woodson.... If Hayward is able to push for a starting role, he may actually move Chuck to the back of the defense, solving the problem of replacing Collins. Jerron McMillian can be a special teams contributor immediately, and can help with depth in the secondary. Don't expect to hear his name a lot, but expect him to grow. The biggest intrigue comes in Terrell Manning. There was once a time when this kid was a top prospect, and he slid a ways down to land in Green Bay. He will be a special team specialist his first year, but he has the potential to be a big contributor in Green Bay. I think we look back at this draft in 4 years, and Manning is listed as a big pick by the Packers. (I mean come on, he's got the #1 thing every star needs in GB... dreads!)
Overall, a very boring draft for the Packers... and a boring draft typically means a good draft. Look for the Packers to be Super Bowl favorites yet again this season.
Friday, April 27, 2012
NFL Draft - Round 1 Draft Grades
Although the first round flew by, there was plenty of action. Some picks had me shaking my head and some had me shaking my fist. Here's my thoughts, pick by pick, as well as my winners, losers, steals and busts of the first round.
1. Indianapolis Colts - QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
This was a no-brainer. Luck is the best QB prospect since Elway and he will live up to the hype.
Grade: A+
2. Washington Redskins - QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor
I'm not as big on RG3 as others, but if he throws first, runs second, he will be in the league for quite some time. The cost of 2 first round picks may be a little steep though.
Grade: A-
3. Cleveland Browns - RB Trent Richardson, Alabama
The Browns gave up 3 picks to move up 1 spot to secure Richardson. I'm not sure they wouldn't have been better off taking Blackmon and going for a RB in Round 2, but they need playmakers. They aren't going to find playmakers with those 4th-7th round picks and Richardson is a beast.
Grade: A-
4. Minnesota Vikings - OT Matt Kalil, USC
The Vikings maneuvered the draft perfectly. They got 3 additional picks and still got the guy they were going to take anyway. Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Ndamakong Suh, etc. . . they needed to protect Ponder from the pass rushing beasts in the NFC North.
Grade: A
5. Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State
Blackmon is the type of guy that doesn't need single coverage to make plays. He's a T.O. caliber receiver and will immediately make that offense better, assuming their QB can get the ball to him.
Grade: A
6. Dallas Cowboys - CB Morris Claiborne, LSU
The Cowboys gave up a 2nd round pick to get Claiborne. I absolutely love Claiborne, but I love 2nd round picks more. I think they overpaid to move up, so that knocks their grade down.
Grade: B+
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - S Mark Barron, Alabama
I know this guy's draft value kept rising, but I think that it was more of a product of scarcity at the safety position than talent-related. They did manage to get a 4th round pick, but they should've stayed at #5 and taken Claiborne.
Grade: C
8. Miami Dolphins - QB Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M
I know they have ties to this guy and really like him, but they made a mistake. It seems to happen far too often, but teams get so desperate to find that franchise QB that they overlook glaring flaws. Brandon Weeden would've gotten a better grade here,
Grade: D-
9. Carolina Panthers - ILB Luke Kuechly, Boston College
Kuechly may be one of the more underrated players in the draft. That likely is because he's not a flashy guy who plays at a position that rarely has "sexy" picks. Fletcher Cox would've been a great choice here as well, but the Panthers got a guy that is just as safe a pick.
Grade: A
10. Buffalo Bills - CB Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina
Gilmore is a solid pick for the Bills. The Bills had a solid defense and Gilmore will make them even better. If they target offensive line and get another receiver tomorrow, they will be a team to watch in 2012.
Grade: B+
11. Kansas City Chiefs - DT Dontari Poe, Memphis
When it comes to defensive line, I don't take any stock in combine results. The best attribute for a defensive lineman is a high motor, which unfortunately is not measured at the combine. Poe just didn't show up in game film, which for a guy with his numbers means he doesn't have the motor needed at that position. Fletcher Cox was hands down the better choice here.
Grade: C-
12. Philadelphia Eagles - DT Fletcher Cox, Mississippi State
There isn't much to say about this pick, which is a good thing. The Eagles moved up to get a guy that really shouldn't have been there at #12. Cox was my top defensive lineman in the draft.
Grade: A
13. Arizona Cardinal - WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame
I will start by saying that I don't believe Floyd should've gone this high. I think he will struggle against top corners in the NFL, but with that being said, he is going to succeed early in his career because he won't be facing any team's best corner with Larry Fitzgerald on the other side. I don't like the player, but the pick actually works for them.
Grade: B
14. St. Louis Rams - DT Michael Brockers, LSU
I mentioned earlier how much I love 2nd round picks. The fact that the Rams ultimately moved from #2 to #14 and got two 2nd round picks and first round picks in 2013 and 2014 is astonishing. They could have taken anyone at this spot and have gotten a good a grade, but on top of those picks they got a solid defensive lineman with a high ceiling.
Grade: A+
15. Seattle Seahawks - OLB Bruce Irvin, West Virginia
I liked Irvin's upside, but in the late 2nd or 3rd round, not the middle of the 1st. Many described Irvin as the best pass rush specialist in the draft, which I can't argue, but he also has some baggage. Seattle simply reached way too far for a guy they probably could have gotten in the 2nd round. When so many teams were willing to trade up, they just did a poor job of draft management.
Grade: F
16. New York Jets - DE Quinton Coples, North Carolina
I already made it known that I have an issue with any defensive lineman that has his motor questioned. The knock on Coples is exactly that. People question his motor and accuse him of taking plays off. I really can't overlook that, even for the most athletically talented of players.
Grade: C-
17. Cincinnati Bengals - CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama
I thought the Bengals would go offensive lineman here and target Janoris Jenkins with their second pick in round 1. I'd like to be the first to congratulate the Bengals for finally avoiding the guy with character issue. I think Kirkpatrick has the ability to become a solid corner in the NFL.
Grade: B
18. San Diego Chargers - DE Melvin Ingram, South Carolina
San Diego may have gotten one of the best value picks in the 1st round. Ingram will immediately improve the Chargers' defensive front. That's all I have to say about that.
Grade: A
19. Chicago Bears - OLB Shea McClellin, Boise State
I was surprised to see McClellin go this high, especially ahead of Chandler Jones. I thought McClellin would be a perfect fit for the Packers or Patriots later in the 1st round, but clearly the Bears liked him a lot. McClellin is a good pick, but the Bears passed on some better players at this spot.
Grade: C+
20. Tennessee Titans - WR Kendall Wright, Baylor
I'm not sure if Wright has thanked RG3 for getting him drafted in the 1st round, but he should. Wright is a talent, but not a 1st round talent. It is common to see a receivers' draft stock rise with his QB. If the Titans really wanted to go with a WR, they should've gone with Stephen Hill, who I had just behind Blackmon in my receiver rankings. Had Hill been in that Baylor offense last year, he would've been the top receiver in this draft.
Grade: D+
21. New England Patriots - DE Chandler Jones, Syracuse
I was disappointed when the Patriots moved up to take Jones, because I wanted my Packers to get him. Jones has gone up draft boards in the past month, but unlike many other players, he deserved to be headed in that direction. Belichick & Co. continue to make the right moves on draft day.
Grade: A
22. Cleveland Browns - QB Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State
I had this in my mock draft and I was happy to see it happen. Weeden should not only compete with McCoy for the starting job, but he should win it. Weeden is going to be a better quarterback in the NFL than Tannehill, so clearly the Browns did well getting him at #22. If they can get him a dynamic receiver like Stephen Hill in the 2nd round, watch out for the Browns' offense.
Grade: A-
23. Detroit Lions - OT Riley Reiff, Iowa
Many people had Reiff going as high as #10 in their mocks, including yours truly. The game has gone from a running game to a passing game, but it still is won in the trenches. The Lions got a top-15 player and an offensive lineman that can step in immediately. You can never have enough offensive lineman, so when in doubt, take one. Especially when your teams' success is directly linked to keeping your quarterback healthy for the whole season.
Grade: A
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - OG David DeCastro, Stanford
Basically it's the same thing I said for the last pick. DeCastro is a guy that you can plug in immediately. He will help improve the Steelers' run game drastically.
Grade: A
25: New England Patriots - ILB Dont'a Hightower, Alabama
Once again the Patriots moved up to grab a guy that probably shouldn't have still been on the board. Hightower is going to be a presence in the middle of the Patriots defense and is well worth the 4th round pick he cost.
Grade: A
26. Houston Texans - DE Whitney Mercilus, Illinois
I've seen Mercilus go in the top-10 in some mock drafts and in the 2nd round in others, but this spot seems about right. Mercilus doesn't amaze me, but I also don't see any glaring flaws. I would've taken Andre Branch or Courtney Upshaw ahead of Mercilus, but he's still a solid pick.
Grade: B
27. Cincinnati Bengals - OG Kevin Zeitler, Wisconsin
Do you expect me to say anything bad about a fellow Badger? Good, because I won't. Zeitler is another solid lineman from a program that produces NFL-ready lineman on a yearly basis. Wisconsin is one of the best rushing teams in college football year in and year out, yet they haven't had a running back drafted in 5 years. This is testament to the talent of guys like Zeitler and Peter Konz, whose name you should hear called in the 2nd round.
Grade: B+
28. Green Bay Packers - DE Nick Perry, USC
The Packers got the guy I absolutely wanted them to get. I started to think Chandler Jones was a possibility, but in the end they got another solid pass-rusher from USC. The presence of Perry is going to likely double or even triple Clay Matthews' sack total in 2012. The added pressure on the quarterback will also take pressure of the secondary. I could keep going, but you get the picture.
Grade: A
29. Minnesota Vikings - S Harrison Smith, Notre Dame
This guy started to grow on me after some prodding. As I mentioned earlier when discussing the Mark Barron pick, this draft is very thin at safety. The Vikings clearly knew this and used a 4th round pick to get back into the 1st round to pick up Smith. I still believe Smith would've been a late 2nd round pick in another year, but he definitely is going to bring some intelligence to the Vikings.
Grade: B
30. San Francisco 49ers - WR A.J. Jenkins, Illinois
I loved the receiver named AJ in last year's draft and he really panned out. Unfortunately, I have similar feelings for another receiver in this draft, but his name is Stephen, not AJ. I actually had Alshon Jeffery, Rueben Randle and Brian Quick all ahead of Jenkins, so clearly this was not the guy the 49ers should've taken. I pride myself in my ability to evaluate receivers early in the draft, so I have no hesitations in grading this pick poorly.
Grade: D-
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - RB Doug Martin, Boise State
I thought Martin would go the Giants at #32 and it appears they were going to go that route, so the Bucs were wise to swap 4th rounders with the Broncos to get ahead of the Giants to get Martin. Martin is a back that can do it all, opposite of what they have right now in LaGarrette Blount. The cost was right and the pick was right.
Grade: B+
32. New York Giants - RB David Wilson, Virginia Tech
I believe the Giants were planning on having their choice of Martin and Wilson at this spot. Had that been the case, they would've been wise to move back 5-10 picks. Nonetheless, they needed another running back to fill the shoes of Brandon Jacobs. I still think the Giants could've picked up another pick and still have gotten Wilson in the 2nd round, but they still did well.
Grade: B
Winners
Patriots - The Patriots know they are a few playmakers on the defensive side of the ball from winning a superbowl. They managed to get two such playmakers in the 1st round for only the cost of a 3rd round and 4th round pick. They only have two 2nd round picks left in this year's draft, but if they get a defensive back and an offensive lineman, they will have done everything they needed.
Rams - I already touched on the reason I believe the Rams were winners in the 1st round. The moved down 12 spots, and in return, received two 2nd round picks in this year's draft (giving them 3 total), a 1st round pick in the 2013 draft, and a 1st round pick in the 2014 draft. Still, they managed to get Michael Brockers. They are in very good position to be on this list again tomorrow, with those three 2nd round picks.
Losers
Seahawks - Bruce Irvin may turn out to be a solid player, but it still can't be overlooked that they could've moved back to get him or even have gotten him in the 2nd round. They passed on the chance to take Fletcher Cox, which they will regret. Pete Carroll is a great recruiter, but his draft strategy should be questioned.
Dolphins - I'm not gonna say much here, you can read my thoughts in the bust below.
Round 1 Bust
Ryan Tannehill - It's plain and simple, Tannehill isn't the next Dan Marino. Hell, he isn't even the next Chad Henne (on a good day). There is something that Kiper, McShay, Mike Sherman, and the numerous random blog writers have in common, they all evaluate upside too heavily. Tannehill is raved about for his athleticism and his size, but they have nothing to do with being a quarterback in the NFL. The quarterback position has changed drastically. You no longer can get by with a game manager, you need an elite quarterback. In the past, teams drafted quarterbacks to cultivate them into solid game managers 3 years down the road. Those guys aren't the guys that can win you a superbowl. I could go on forever here, but I'll just wait 5 years to say I told you so.
Round 1 Steal
David DeCastro/Melvin Ingram - I'm tired and want to go to bed, so this is going to be short. These 2 guys are going to contribute immediately to their teams, and unlike almost every other team in the 1st round, they didn't have to give up anything to get them. These players fell and San Diego and Pittsburgh were rewarded for the patience. I'll sum it up by reminding everyone how quickly Pittsburgh submitted their pick. That should tell you how surprised they were to see DeCastro still there at #24.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
NCAA Tournament - Midwest Region Preview
Well last night we saw that anything can happen in the tournament. At halftime, people were penciling Iona in to upset Marquette, now they have the eraser out once again. Good thing the bracket doesn't count the play-in games, I'd be 0-2. I'll take Vermont and Cal tonight, so hopefully I can split the games. This is my final preview, so I hope you've enjoyed them. Be sure to check out the other regions: South, East, and West. No tips this time, let's get right to the games.
1 North Carolina vs 16 Lamar/Vermont
North Carolina wins 10 of 10
Why North Carolina Will Win. . .
North Carolina came into the season with expectations of winning a national title. They have done nothing so far to make you expect anything less. In their regular season finale against rival Duke, the Tar Heels showed why they were the preseason #1 ranked team. North Carolina is the top rebounding team in the country and the top scoring team in the field of 64. The biggest concern is John Henson's health entering the tournament. If he's good to go, Barnes, Zeller and crew will be favorites to get to the Final Four.
8 Creighton vs 9 Alabama
Creighton wins 5 of 10
Why Creighton Will Win. . .
Creighton is another one of those teams many people think are underseeded. The Bluejays were 28-5 on the season, but didn't play anyone ranked. There is one reason they can win a game in the NCAA tournament, Doug McDermott. McDermott is the top scorer in the tournament at over 23 points per game and is one of the best three-point shooters at 49%. He also adds 8 boards per game and shoots a staggering 61% from the floor. McDermott can carry this team to a victory like many scorers have in the past, but an off night or foul trouble could mean an early exit for the Blue Jays.
Why Alabama Will Win. . .
There really isn't anything spectacular about the Crimson Tide offense, but they are one of the best defensive teams in the country. They don't shoot well, but they also prevent their opponent's from hitting a lot of shots. This team failed to meet the expectations it had early in the season, but a win or two in the tournament could go a long way. This team has the athletes, they just never got everything together this year.
5 Temple vs 12 California/USF
California wins 5 of 10
Why Temple Will Win. . .
The A-10 was solid this year, and Temple was the regular season champion. The Owls come into the tournament having won 13 of their last 15 and have wins against Duke, Saint Louis and Xavier. Offensively, Temple is efficient. Ramone Moore and Khalif Wyatt both average over 17 points per game. Temple is littered with upperclassmen and that experience is valuable come tourney time. This team has Sweet 16 potential.
Why California Will Win. . .
I have California winning the play-in game for one reason, they get assists and high percentage shots. Had California won the Pac-12 tournament, they would've have been the only team to make the tournament. Instead, Colorado got the automatic bid and California is in as an at-large. Balanced scoring and a high shooting percentage can get this team through to the Sweet 16.
4 Michigan vs 13 Ohio
Michigan wins 8 of 10
Why Michigan Will Win. . .
Michigan had a solid season in the Big Ten. They got hot in games where they looked unbeatable, but then they went cold and look very beatable. The Wolverines rely on their outside shooting for offensive spurts. Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. are solid scoring threats, but the team's inability to get to the line could hurt them. This team is talented enough to overcome some scoring droughts, but a Sweet 16 may be the best case scenario for a streaky team.
Why Ohio Will Win. . .
Ohio is over-matched against Michigan. The Bobcats got into the tournament by winning the Mid-American tournament. D.J. Cooper is a solid scorer and they have balanced scoring all around, but they aren't particularly efficient on offense. If this team were to beat Michigan, it would truly be an upset.
6 San Diego State vs 11 NC State
NC State wins 6 of 10
Why San Diego State Will Win. . .
It's difficult to expect much from the Aztecs in a rebuilding year of sorts from their Sweet 16 team from last year. This team lacks an interior defensive presence and has more turnovers than assists. They do have a couple scorers in Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley who take nearly 44% of the team's shots. Although this team is the higher seed, they may be the underdog in the round of 64.
Why NC State Will Win. . .
NC State got into the tournament based primarily on the strength of their schedule. They play in ACC with perennial tournament teams. Despite having twelve losses on the season, eight of those came against ranked teams. After a four game losing streak, NC State has played well in their last five, nearly knocking off North Carolina in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack is solid statistically, having five players averaging in double-digits. The balanced scoring and team play could propel this team into the round of 32.
3 Georgetown vs 14 Belmont
Georgetown wins 9 of 10
Why Georgetown Will Win. . .
Georgetown is on upset alert and for good reason. The Hoyas have been knocked out in the round of 64 in the past two years. This is your typical Georgetown team, anchored by a big man that can do it all. If you didn't see him in the Big East tournament, senior Henry Sims is playing his best basketball. Sims can rebound, score, and pass the ball as well as any big man in the country. This is another talented Georgetown team that has Sweet 16 potential, but needs to focus on their first round matchup.
Why Belmont Will Win. . .
Belmont comes in having won 14 straight games, so momentum is on their side. They don't have any significant wins on the schedule, but they did lose to Duke by only one point in the first game of the season. This team is not as talented as Georgetown, but they can score and distribute the ball well. If the Bruins can pull off the upset against Georgetown, they could be headed to the Sweet 16.
7 Saint Mary's vs 10 Purdue
Purdue wins 5 of 10
Why Saint Mary's Will Win. . .
The Gaels finally overcame Gonzaga to take the West Coast Conference title. Now they have their eyes set on a Sweet 16. The team's top scorer, Matthew Dellavedova, is able to create his own shot and get to the rim, but is also an excellent passer. Along with double-double machine Rob Jones, this team is talented enough to make a run, but they will need solid defensive play to advance.
Why Purdue Will Win. . .
This could be the last time we see Robbie Hummel in a Purdue uniform. Hummel's career has been unfortunately riddled with injuries that kept him off legitimate Final Four teams. This year Hummel is looking to finally lead his team in the tournament. The Boilermakers win games through offensive and defensive efficiency. Their ability to play defense and take care of the ball can take this team into a Sweet 16.
2 Kansas vs 15 Detroit
Kansas wins 10 of 10
Why Kansas Will Win. . .
When you look at Kansas, you see a team full of athletes. Thomas Robinson is a man among boys, and there aren't many teams that can contain him. However, to make a Final Four run, Tyshawn Taylor will have to be on the top of his game. Withey gives the Jayhawks another interior presence and is a premier shot blocker. This team can go as far as they want as long as they play well together.
My Midwest Region Bracket
Sweet 16: North Carolina, California, Georgetown, Kansas
Elite 8: North Carolina, Kansas
Upsets: Cal over Temple and Michigan, NC State over SDSU, Purdue over St. Mary's, Kansas over UNC
50-50 Picks: Creighton over Alabama, California over Temple, Purdue over St. Mary's
Again I have the #1 and #2 seed in the Elite 8, but I have Kansas advancing to the Final Four. I have California winning a couple games, but that may change depending on how they look tonight. In my 50-50 games, I am taking Creighton because of the McDermott and Purdue because of their efficiency. Again, my California pick could change.
1 North Carolina vs 16 Lamar/Vermont
North Carolina wins 10 of 10
Why North Carolina Will Win. . .
North Carolina came into the season with expectations of winning a national title. They have done nothing so far to make you expect anything less. In their regular season finale against rival Duke, the Tar Heels showed why they were the preseason #1 ranked team. North Carolina is the top rebounding team in the country and the top scoring team in the field of 64. The biggest concern is John Henson's health entering the tournament. If he's good to go, Barnes, Zeller and crew will be favorites to get to the Final Four.
8 Creighton vs 9 Alabama
Creighton wins 5 of 10
Why Creighton Will Win. . .
Creighton is another one of those teams many people think are underseeded. The Bluejays were 28-5 on the season, but didn't play anyone ranked. There is one reason they can win a game in the NCAA tournament, Doug McDermott. McDermott is the top scorer in the tournament at over 23 points per game and is one of the best three-point shooters at 49%. He also adds 8 boards per game and shoots a staggering 61% from the floor. McDermott can carry this team to a victory like many scorers have in the past, but an off night or foul trouble could mean an early exit for the Blue Jays.
Why Alabama Will Win. . .
There really isn't anything spectacular about the Crimson Tide offense, but they are one of the best defensive teams in the country. They don't shoot well, but they also prevent their opponent's from hitting a lot of shots. This team failed to meet the expectations it had early in the season, but a win or two in the tournament could go a long way. This team has the athletes, they just never got everything together this year.
5 Temple vs 12 California/USF
California wins 5 of 10
Why Temple Will Win. . .
The A-10 was solid this year, and Temple was the regular season champion. The Owls come into the tournament having won 13 of their last 15 and have wins against Duke, Saint Louis and Xavier. Offensively, Temple is efficient. Ramone Moore and Khalif Wyatt both average over 17 points per game. Temple is littered with upperclassmen and that experience is valuable come tourney time. This team has Sweet 16 potential.
Why California Will Win. . .
I have California winning the play-in game for one reason, they get assists and high percentage shots. Had California won the Pac-12 tournament, they would've have been the only team to make the tournament. Instead, Colorado got the automatic bid and California is in as an at-large. Balanced scoring and a high shooting percentage can get this team through to the Sweet 16.
4 Michigan vs 13 Ohio
Michigan wins 8 of 10
Why Michigan Will Win. . .
Michigan had a solid season in the Big Ten. They got hot in games where they looked unbeatable, but then they went cold and look very beatable. The Wolverines rely on their outside shooting for offensive spurts. Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. are solid scoring threats, but the team's inability to get to the line could hurt them. This team is talented enough to overcome some scoring droughts, but a Sweet 16 may be the best case scenario for a streaky team.
Why Ohio Will Win. . .
Ohio is over-matched against Michigan. The Bobcats got into the tournament by winning the Mid-American tournament. D.J. Cooper is a solid scorer and they have balanced scoring all around, but they aren't particularly efficient on offense. If this team were to beat Michigan, it would truly be an upset.
6 San Diego State vs 11 NC State
NC State wins 6 of 10
Why San Diego State Will Win. . .
It's difficult to expect much from the Aztecs in a rebuilding year of sorts from their Sweet 16 team from last year. This team lacks an interior defensive presence and has more turnovers than assists. They do have a couple scorers in Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley who take nearly 44% of the team's shots. Although this team is the higher seed, they may be the underdog in the round of 64.
Why NC State Will Win. . .
NC State got into the tournament based primarily on the strength of their schedule. They play in ACC with perennial tournament teams. Despite having twelve losses on the season, eight of those came against ranked teams. After a four game losing streak, NC State has played well in their last five, nearly knocking off North Carolina in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack is solid statistically, having five players averaging in double-digits. The balanced scoring and team play could propel this team into the round of 32.
3 Georgetown vs 14 Belmont
Georgetown wins 9 of 10
Why Georgetown Will Win. . .
Georgetown is on upset alert and for good reason. The Hoyas have been knocked out in the round of 64 in the past two years. This is your typical Georgetown team, anchored by a big man that can do it all. If you didn't see him in the Big East tournament, senior Henry Sims is playing his best basketball. Sims can rebound, score, and pass the ball as well as any big man in the country. This is another talented Georgetown team that has Sweet 16 potential, but needs to focus on their first round matchup.
Why Belmont Will Win. . .
Belmont comes in having won 14 straight games, so momentum is on their side. They don't have any significant wins on the schedule, but they did lose to Duke by only one point in the first game of the season. This team is not as talented as Georgetown, but they can score and distribute the ball well. If the Bruins can pull off the upset against Georgetown, they could be headed to the Sweet 16.
7 Saint Mary's vs 10 Purdue
Purdue wins 5 of 10
Why Saint Mary's Will Win. . .
The Gaels finally overcame Gonzaga to take the West Coast Conference title. Now they have their eyes set on a Sweet 16. The team's top scorer, Matthew Dellavedova, is able to create his own shot and get to the rim, but is also an excellent passer. Along with double-double machine Rob Jones, this team is talented enough to make a run, but they will need solid defensive play to advance.
Why Purdue Will Win. . .
This could be the last time we see Robbie Hummel in a Purdue uniform. Hummel's career has been unfortunately riddled with injuries that kept him off legitimate Final Four teams. This year Hummel is looking to finally lead his team in the tournament. The Boilermakers win games through offensive and defensive efficiency. Their ability to play defense and take care of the ball can take this team into a Sweet 16.
2 Kansas vs 15 Detroit
Kansas wins 10 of 10
Why Kansas Will Win. . .
When you look at Kansas, you see a team full of athletes. Thomas Robinson is a man among boys, and there aren't many teams that can contain him. However, to make a Final Four run, Tyshawn Taylor will have to be on the top of his game. Withey gives the Jayhawks another interior presence and is a premier shot blocker. This team can go as far as they want as long as they play well together.
My Midwest Region Bracket
Sweet 16: North Carolina, California, Georgetown, Kansas
Elite 8: North Carolina, Kansas
Upsets: Cal over Temple and Michigan, NC State over SDSU, Purdue over St. Mary's, Kansas over UNC
50-50 Picks: Creighton over Alabama, California over Temple, Purdue over St. Mary's
Again I have the #1 and #2 seed in the Elite 8, but I have Kansas advancing to the Final Four. I have California winning a couple games, but that may change depending on how they look tonight. In my 50-50 games, I am taking Creighton because of the McDermott and Purdue because of their efficiency. Again, my California pick could change.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
NCAA Tournament - West Region Preview
Two down, two to go. I've already previewed the South and East regions, and now we move down to the West. As always, here's a couple tips for filling out your bracket:
- This is college, coaches make a difference. When it comes to picking teams in the tournament, don't overlook how good their coach is. Coaches like Tom Izzo are at their best come March.
- Make a pick and stick with it. Too often people will waffle on a pick and then switch it because they saw a statistic or article about some team. Usually you'll end up regretting it.
The tournament is nearly underway, with First Four games starting tonight. In the small chance you care, I'll pick Mississippi Valley State and Iona to win tonight and get into the field of 64. Let's get going to the teams that have byes tonight.
1 Michigan State vs 16 LIU Brooklyn
Michigan State wins 10 of 10
Why Michigan State Will Win. . .
Tom Izzo knows how to get it done. Michigan State has one of the best coaches come March and a Final Four has become expected every year, regardless of seed for the Spartans. This year is no different, considering the Spartans weren't ranked in the preseason polls. Draymond Green does it all, averaging 16 points, 10 rebounds and over 3 assists per game. Green can play inside and outside, which makes it difficult for teams to match up with him. Along with Green, the Spartans have several players who can score on any given night and have players who can come in and hit the three when needed. This team is well coached and poised to make a Final Four run.
8 Memphis vs 9 Saint Loius
Memphis wins 5 of 10
Why Memphis Will Win. . .
Memphis enters the tournament having won 11 of their last 12 games. Leading the scoring is sophomore Will Barton, but they have plenty of legitimate scorers. As a team, they shoot over 49% from the floor, which puts them near the top of the country. They also distribute the ball well, so the Tigers will definitely be a tough out of the tournament. They have an interesting matchup with Saint Louis in the opening round, where many believe both teams were vastly underseeded.
Why Saint Louis Will Win. . .
If you are looking for a coach that has been there and done that, look no further than the Billikens' Rick Majerus. In the mid-to-late '90s, Majerus had Utah among the best programs in college basketball. He did everything be win it all. Majerus now has the Billikens in the NCAA tournament ready to make an impact. I personally find their mascot to be one of the coolest looking in the tournament, but their logo sort of makes him look like the Grinch. Can the Billikens do their best Grinch impression and steal some tournament wins? They don't have the athletes that Memphis or Michigan State have, but Majerus will have this team ready against any team.
5 New Mexico vs 12 Long Beach State
New Mexico wins 7 of 10
Why New Mexico Will Win. . .
If you like San Diego State or UNLV, you should like New Mexico, since they took 2 out of 3 from both those teams this year. The Mountain West champions have senior Drew Gordon averaging a double-double. The Lobos also get 12 and 11 points per game from Kendall Williams and Tony Snell respectively. This team is deep and are near the top of the country in assists per game, but what will win them games in the tournament is their defense. New Mexico is a dangerous #6 seed who has a good chance of making it into the Sweet 16.
Why Long Beach State Will Win. . .
Not many teams can score with the 49ers. They have five players averaging over 9 points per game, with Casper Ware leading them with over 17 per game. Long Beach State played a very tough non-conference schedule. Kansas, North Carolina, Kansas State, Louisville, Xavier, and Creighton all found themselves on the 49ers schedule. While the only win came over Xavier, Long Beach State played well against some of the best teams in the country. That experience and their ability to score could be enough for them to make a cinderella run into the Sweet 16 or possibly beyond.
4 Louisville vs 13 Davidson
Louisville wins 8 of 10
Why Louisville Will Win. . .
The Cardinals are playing some of their best basketball entering the tournament. A lot of that has to do with the play of Peyton Siva. If you haven't seen him play, he is lightning quick and can finish at the basket. Louisville is led in scoring by senior Kyle Kuric, but has six players averaging at least 9 points per game. This is also a very good rebounding team. The trend of good coaches continues with Rick Pitino, who has had success everywhere he's been. Expect this team to do no different as it advances to the Sweet 16.
Why Davidson Will Win. . .
Well they don't have Stephen Curry, but the Wildcats can still score at will. They have five players averaging double digits and are also one of the best rebounding teams in the country. It may just be a year too early for Davidson though. They don't have a senior logging significant minutes, so this year will be about getting experience. However, that does not mean that this team does not have what it takes to win a game in the tournament. They definitely have the talent to get to a Sweet 16, but they are lacking the experience. I'm saying it now though, watch out for them next year.
6 Murray State vs 11 Colorado State
Murray State wins 9 of 10
Why Murray State Will Win. . .
It's hard to believe a team that went 30-1 is a #6 seed in the tournament. It goes to say that this team is much better than their seeding. If you haven't seen him play, Isaiah Canaan is one of the best scorers in the country. He averages over 19 points per game and gets Dick Vitale more excited than a bottle a Viagra. Canaan alone can carry this team through the tournament, but the Racers also have other players who can score. They shoot over 40% from beyond the arc as a team, so they could surprise anyone who looks at them like any other #6 seed.
Why Colorado State Will Win. . .
It's actually very surprising to see Colorado State in the tournament, especially as a #11 seed. This team was simply over matched against teams in the Mountain West conference and now they are facing the top teams in the country. They are extremely undersized and don't rebound very well, although they do shoot over 40% from the three point line. If the Rams are going to win a game in the tournament, they will need to do by getting hot from beyond the arc.
3 Marquette vs 14 BYU/Iona
Marquette wins 9 of 10
Why Marquette Will Win. . .
The Golden Eagles are one team you can never count out. They have come back from double-digit second half deficits on multiple occasions. They do this by scoring and playing stifling defense. The Big East player of the year Jae Crowder is a mismatch for anyone who guards him. Darius Johnson-Odom is a premier scorer who can score from anywhere on the floor. This team will get after you and aren't afraid to take it to the rim. Marquette can beat themselves with turnovers at times, but if they take care of the ball this is a Final Four team.
Why BYU/Iona Will Win. . .
As I said above, I believe Iona is going to win the play-in game and get to this spot. If they do, they could give Marquette a tough game. Mike Glover can score on the inside with the best of them. The Gaels could be this year's VCU, but they have a tough path to get to a Sweet 16.
7 Florida vs 10 Virginia
Florida wins 6 of 10
Why Florida Will Win. . .
Florida was a top-10 team in the preseason rankings, so this is a team that is underseeded in the tournament. They have five players who score in double digits and all of them aren't to get in and get a rebound. The front-runner for the Gators is Kenny Boynton, a junior guard who is terrific from beyond the arc. This is one of the most efficient offenses in the country and they take care of the ball. They started to get into their stride in the SEC tournament, so this could be a team to watch in the Sweet 16.
Why Virginia Will Win. . .
Virginia's defense is well-chronicled. Tony Bennett has this team in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2007. They started their season winning 14 of 15, but since have gone just 8-8. Their defense keeps them in games though, as seven of their nine losses were by three points or less. They do have an interior scorer in Mike Scott who can get it going at any time. If this team can get back on track, their defense could take them into a Sweet 16.
2 Missouri vs Norfolk State
Missouri wins 10 of 10
Why Missouri Will Win. . .
You shouldn't have to make much of an argument to have the Tigers in your Final Four. Missouri went 30-4 and won their conference tournament, showing consistency the whole season. They have arguably the best guard play in the country and Kim English is one of the best shooters in the country. This team will cruise past Norfolk State, but do have some tough matchups on their road to the Final Four.
My West Region Bracket
Sweet 16: Michigan State, Louisville, Marquette, Missouri Florida
Elite 8: Michican State, Marquette
Upsets: Florida over Missouri
50-50 Picks: Memphis over Saint Louis
It's mostly chalk in this region. The toughest game to pick is Memphis and Saint Louis, who are good teams. I just have some feeling that Missouri will fall early, but I couldn't pull the trigger on taking Florida over them, although I wanted to. EDIT: I decided to take Florida over Missouri. This could be my make or break pick of the tourney. Instead, I took Marquette in what would be an amazing game. When all is said and done, I am taking Izzo and Spartans to move on to the Final Four.
NCAA Tournament - East Region Preview
I move over to the East Region for my next tournament preview. In case you missed it, I already previewed the South Region. Before I get started, here's another couple tips for filling out your bracket:
- A premier scorer should never be overlooked. We have seen in the past that one player can carry a team. We had Kemba Walker last year and names like Jimmer Fredette, Stephen Curry, and Carmelo Anthony in recent history.
- Don't overlook recent tournament history. Take Syracuse for example. In the past 5 years, the Orange have been no worse than a #5 seed, but they have only reached the Sweet Sixteen twice in that span.
Again, below each matchup I'm giving you what I believe would be the result of a ten game series between the 2 teams. I'm also automatically advancing the #1 and #2 seeds. Here we go:
1 Syracuse vs 16 UNC Asheville
Syracuse wins 10 of 10
Why Syracuse Will Win. . .
Syracuse has only two losses on the season and is one of the deepest teams in the country. Still, most experts don't have the Orange in their Final Four and I am no different. The Orange have a hall of fame coach and play their signature zone which gives some teams problems. What they don't have is that premier scorer that can carry them in the second half of a game. They are also susceptible on the boards. If they run into a team that can hit 3's against their zone they could fall early. Still, it would be hard to not see Syracuse at least move on to the Sweet 16.
8 Kansas State vs 9 Southern Miss
Kansas State wins 8 of 10
Why Kansas State Will Win. . .
If there is one team in the country that Missouri doesn't want to play, it's Kansas State. The Wildcats beat Missouri twice this season and also notched wins against Baylor, Alabama, and Texas. Kansas State has shown it can compete against any team out there. They have the ability to get to the rim and clean up the boards. Jamar Samuels and Rodney McGruder could take this squad into the Sweet 16.
Why Southern Miss Will Win. . .
There isn't anything spectacular about Southern Miss. They haven't beaten or even played a ranked team all season, and that lack of experience against top teams could hurt them in the tournament. The Golden Eagles do have some solid depth and can get scoring from several different players. They also rebound well and take care of the ball, so they could give Kansas State a tough game. A Sweet 16 is unlikely, but in the NCAA tournament, you never know.
5 Vanderbilt vs 12 Harvard
Vanderbilt wins 9 of 10
Why Vanderbilt Will Win. . .
The Commodores are the trendy pick in the East region. They are coming off a big win over #1 Kentucky and an SEC tournament title. John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor can score with the best of them and Festus Ezeli is a force in the interior. However, their win against Kentucky came in their 3rd attempt and they are only 3-6 against ranked teams. This team has lofty Final Four expectations that will be difficult to live up to, but if they can build off of their momentum from the SEC tournament, they have the talent to go far.
Why Harvard Will Win. . .
Harvard basketball is at it's pinnacle right now. They are in the NCAA tournament for only the second time, the other being back in 1946. They also are the Alma mater of Jeremy Lin, who been all the hype in the sports world over the last few months. The Crimson are probably the smartest team in the tournament as well. All that being said, Harvard doesn't match up athletically with a Vanderbilt team. It would take a near perfect game to win their first tournament game ever, but they did beat Florida State early in the season. If you are looking for a 12-5 upset, I'd probably avoid this one, but that's also what they said about Lin.
4 Wisconsin vs 13 Montana
Wisconsin wins 9 of 10
Why Wisconsin Will Win. . .
It isn't always pretty to watch and it usually doesn't look spectacular in the box score, but the Badgers know how to win. The formula for the Badgers is simple, play defense and take care of the ball. This is evident as the Badgers have the best scoring defense in the country, are 8th in field goal percentage defense and are second in turnovers with less than 9 per game. The Badgers are led by senior guard Jordan Taylor, who has the ability to hit big shots and can carry this team in close games. The Badgers also shoot free throws very well and can get hot from beyond the arc. The Badgers are usually in the upset talk, but this is Wisconsin's 15th straight tournament appearance and they have won at least one game in each of the last 5 years. Expect the Badgers to make a run and have a possible match up with Ohio State in the Elite 8.
Why Montana Will Win. . .
Montana enters the tournament having won 14 straight and 20 of their last 21 games. The Grizzlies get great production from Will Cherry (16 PPG) and have five players averaging 9+ PPG. Their strength, however, is defense. They are solid in both scoring defense and field goal percentage defense. This team would throw most teams off their game, but may play right into Wisconsin's style. Their lack of depth is a concern as well, so even though some people have labeled Montana as a possible upset team, it will be difficult for the Grizzlies to get past Wisconsin.
6 Cincinnati vs 11 Texas
Texas wins 5 of 10
Why Cincinnati Will Win. . .
Cincinnati has had some perplexing losses this season and has also had some great wins, including a win over #2 Syracuse in the Big East tournament. The Bearcats are a physical squad who have a presence in Yancy Gates, who nearly averages a double-double. In all, the Bearcats have four starters who score in double digits and they all rebound well. Cincinnati's season could have fell apart following the brawl (and 20 point loss) against Xavier, but the team rebounded nicely and played well down the stretch. They are a tough out and could find themselves in the Sweet 16.
Why Texas Will Win. . .
J'Covan Brown knows how to score. Brown averages over 20 points per game and is a threat to put up 30 on any given night. Although the Longhorns have only won 20 games, they played the top teams in the Big 12 closely. Texas does rebound well and can get scoring from other sources, but they likely will go as Brown goes. Texas may be going home early, but if Brown gets hot, he could easily carry Texas into a Sweet 16.
3 Florida State vs Saint Bonaventure
Florida State wins 9 of 10
Why Florida State Will Win. . .
Florida State did something this year that no team has done in 15 years, they beat both Duke and North Carolina twice in the same season. They also come into the tournament with momentum; their last two wins are on back-to-back nights against those aforementioned teams. The Seminoles do this with defense, ranking 5th in field goal percentage defense. They also have a knack for knocking down the big three. If Deividas Dulkys can play like he did in their 33 point beat-down of North Carolina and Michael Snaer is on, this team could find itself in the Final Four.
Why Saint Bonaventure Will Win. . .
The Bonnies played themselves into the tournament by knocking off Xavier in the A-10 championship. They will need solid play from 6'9" senior Andrew Nicholson, who averages 18 points and 8 rebounds per game, but it will take a flawless game for them to get past Florida State in the round of 64. However, Saint Bonaventure burst some bubbles when it won the A-10 tournament, so they are playing with nothing to lose, which is always dangerous.
7 Gonzaga vs 10 West Virginia
West Viriginia wins 6 of 10
Why Gonzaga Will Win. . .
It was way back in 1999 when Gonzaga became everyone's favorite cinderella team. Gonzaga is now a mainstay in March, but that hasn't resulted in much success once they get there. They advanced to the Sweet 16 in three straight years from 1999-2001, but have only made it there twice since then. This Gonzaga team is solid, but not as good as some of their past teams. They do have four players averaging double digits and rebound well. It used to be the popular thing to pick Gonzaga, but this year you may want to look elsewhere for a cinderella. But then again, they have always done their best as the underdog.
Why West Virginia Will Win. . .
West Virginia has the Big East's top scorer in senior forward Kevin Jones. Jones also averages 11 boards and gets a block per game. The team as a whole rebounds well and they get added scoring from Darryl Bryant and Deniz Kilicli. There is no doubt about it though, this is Jones' team. The Mountaineers have been struggling as of late however, having lost 8 of their last 12 games. If West Virginia is going to win, it will need to be at the hands of Kevin Jones.
2 Ohio State vs 15 Loyola (MD)
Ohio State wins 10 of 10
Why Ohio State Will Win. . .
In a region full of elite scorers, the best player has to be Jared Sullinger. Sullinger is nearly unstoppable down low and is simply a beast. Along with Sullinger's 17 points per game, the Buckeyes get another 30 points per game from Deshaun Thomas and William Buford. With Aaron Craft spreading the ball around effectively, this team is hard to contain. It's surprising to see seven losses on their record, but six of those came against top-20 teams and the loss against Kansas came without Sullinger. This team is poised to make a Final Four and likely would've been a #1 seed had won the Big Ten final against Michigan State.
My East Region Bracket
Sweet 16: Syracuse, Wisconsin, Florida State, Ohio State
Elite 8: Wisconsin, Ohio State
Upsets: Texas over Cincinnati, West Virginia over Gonzaga, Wisconsin over Syracuse
50-50 Picks: Texas over Cincinnati
I believe the East Region is the best from top to bottom. I have Ohio State coming out of this region, and the only team I see possibly beating them is Wisconsin, since they did so earlier this year. Again, I don't have many upsets early besides Texas and West Virginia winning in the round of 64, but I do have Wisconsin knocking off Syracuse. I could really go either way with the Texas-Cincinnati game, but I took Texas because I believe the Big 12 is better at the top than the Big East is this year.
Monday, March 12, 2012
NCAA Tournament - South Region Preview
It's March Madness time again and everyone is busy filling out there bracket. Whether you are going chalk or trying to pick the next Cinderella team, you can't go wrong. There really is a lot of luck in picking a bracket, since almost any team can win on any given day. Here are a few tips before we get started:
I'm starting with the South region where Kentucky is the favorite. I automatically advance all #1 and #2 seeds, so you won't get any insight on #15 and #16 seeds. Remember, filling out a bracket is supposed to be fun, so don't worry to go outside the popular picks. Stay tuned for the rest of the regions which will be coming over the next couple days.
1 Kentucky vs 16 Mississippi Valley State/Western Kentucky
Kentucky wins 10 of 10
Why Kentucky Will Win. . .
Kentucky is the best team in the country. Anthony Davis is the best player in the country. John Calipari continually has top NBA talent on his team and this year is no different with Doron Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Terrence Jones, Darius Miller and Marquis Teague. A Final Four appearance is almost a certainty with this squad.
8 Iowa State vs 9 Connecticut
Iowa State wins 5 of 10
Why Iowa State Will Win. . .
Royce White is a talented 6'8" sophomore who can score from anywhere on the floor. He averages 13 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists and a steal per game, making him an all-around talent which will be hard to contain. Iowa State also shoots the three very well, especially senior guard Scott Christopherson who hits 45% from beyond the arc. White is talented enough to carry the team, but if they shoot well they can compete with anyone, as we saw in Big 12 play where they notched wins against Kansas and Baylor and played Missouri tough twice.
Why Connecticut Will Win. . .
Connecticut is the defending national champions and were #4 in the preseason rankings, but a tough Big East schedule and bad play resulted in a sub-.500 conference record. Nonetheless, Connecticut still is one of the more talented squads in the tourney. Jeremy Lamb, Shabazz Napier, and Alex Oriakhi all return from last year's championship team, and they add talented freshmen Ryan Boatright and Andre Drummond. If this team plays smart, they can make a run, but there is a reason they were 8-10 in the Big East this year.
5 Wichita State vs 12 VCU
Wichita State wins 7 of 10
Why Wichita State Will Win. . .
The Shockers are an experienced team, with five seniors getting significant minutes. Wichita State can play inside and outside. They have a 7-footer in Garrett Stutz and one the nation's best 3-point shooters (50%) in Joe Ragland, both of which are seniors. The Shockers also are smart with the ball, averaging only 12 turnovers per game and near the top in assist-to-turnover ratio. A smart, experienced club can usually do damage in the tournament and Wichita State is no different.
Why VCU Will Win. . .
Last year's cinderella team is dancing again. While they aren't as talented as last season, they play like a team that believes they are. They get after their opponents on defense, leading the nation in steals per game. The Rams average nearly as many steals as turnovers per game, so in order to beat them you must value each possession. Their downfall may be poor shooting from the perimeter and foul line, but if they can get points in transition, they could definitely be a Sweet 16 team.
4 Indiana vs 13 New Mexico State
Indiana wins 8 of 10
Why Indiana Will Win. . .
Indiana has competed against and beaten some of the nations best teams; Kentucky, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan all fell to the Hoosiers. There is one thing those wins have in common though, they were all at home. Indiana struggles away from their home court, going just 8-8 away from Assembly Hall. They also enter the tournament without senior guard Verdell Jones III, whose leadership was huge for Tom Crean's squad. With that being said, they still have Cody Zeller, a big man who can get up and down the floor and score against anyone in the post. They also have a point guard in Jordan Hulls who takes care of the ball and a playmaker in Christian Watford, who if he gets hot, can take Indiana into a Sweet 16.
Why New Mexico State Will Win. . .
The Aggies are lead by double-double machine Wendell McKines, who averages nearly 19 points and 11 rebounds per game. New Mexico State can score with anyone and rebounds very well, but they have not played a ranked team all season, so it will be interesting to see how they match up with the best teams in the country. What may hurt the Aggies is their inability to knock down the three (just under 33% on the season). If they can get after the boards and can get points in the paint, the Aggies could pull off the upset.
6 UNLV vs 11 Colorado
UNLV wins 9 of 10
Why UNLV Will Win. . .
The Runnin' Rebels are one of the best teams in the country in assists per game. In addition to distributing the rock, they also rebound and score very well. At the center of this is Mike Moser, UNLV's talented sophomore forward. Moser averages a double-double in points and rebounds and also adds 2 assists, 2 steals and a block per game. Also, in case anyone forgot, UNLV beat #1 North Carolina back in November by 10. This team could have an Elite 8 run in them.
Why Colorado Will Win. . .
Colorado got into the NCAA tournament by winning the Pac-12 tournament. There is a lot to be said about the Pac-12 when their regular season champion is going to be playing in the NIT. They did take 2 out of 3 against California, their only fellow Pac-12 team in the tournament. The Buffaloes do have momentum coming into the tournament and have four players averaging double-digits this season. Even if Colorado takes care of the ball, Andre Roberson will have to play big for Colarado to avoid an early exit.
3 Baylor vs 14 South Dakota State
Baylor wins 9 of 10
Why Baylor Will Win. . .
Baylor did not lose a game until January 16th and all 7 losses this season have come against tournament teams. Baylor has the length and talent to be a Final Four contender, but they have been inconsistent down the stretch. Perry Jones III is one of the best players in the country and can overpower most defenders. Quincy Acy and Quincy Miller are also mismatches for most teams. Baylor is going to be more athletic than nearly every team they play, so as long as they show up on the big stage, you likely will see them highlighted on a lot of brackets. You likely will also see their highlighter jerseys show up in the Elite 8.
Why South Dakota State Will Win. . .
If you are picking a bracket based on mascots, you might have the Jackrabbits in your Final Four, but even those that aren't are looking at them giving Baylor a run. Most of the attention is on 6'4" guard Nate Wolters, who is a top-10 scorer in the nation. Wolters makes most of his living going to the line, averaging over seven free throws per game. However, Wolters shoots a dismal 24% from beyond the arc, while the rest of the team shoots almost 43%. It will be tough for Wolters to score inside against a lengthy Baylor team, so if he starts to settle for the outside shot, they won't have a chance.
7 Notre Dame vs 10 Xavier
Notre Dame wins 7 of 10
Why Notre Dame Will Win. . .
This game won't be exciting to watch unless you are a Notre Dame fan. The Fighting Irish limit possessions and slow the game down, forcing their opponents to beat them in the half court. Despite losing Tim Abromaitis early in the year to an ACL injury, Notre Dame managed to go 13-5 in the Big East. Their formula for success is limiting turnovers and getting good shots. As long as they stick to their game, they will be a tough out early in the tournament.
Why Xavier Will Win. . .
Even if you follow college basketball, they biggest story about Xavier is their brawl with Cincinnati earlier in the season. After winning that game by 23 points to go to 8-0 on the season, Xavier lost 5 of their next 6 and haven't been the same team since. Tu Holloway is a solid player who can go off at any time and Xavier has 10 players averaging double-digit minutes. Xavier has a solid scorer and depth, which are two things you need in the NCAA tournament. They hadn't beaten a good team since Cincinnati until they beat Saint Louis in the A-10 tournament, but maybe the Musketeers are getting it all together at the right time.
2 Duke vs 15 Lehigh
Duke wins 10 of 10
Why Duke Will Win. . .
You either love them or hate them, but you can't argue that Duke is one of the best programs in the country. Coach K is arguably the best coach out there, which is always something to keep in mind. That being said, Duke hasn't fared well in recent years. Mason and Miles Plumlee provide them with a present down low, Austin Rivers isn't afraid to take the big shot, and Seth Curry can score as well. They have a Final Four caliber team, but the route there isn't easy for the Blue Devils.
My South Region Bracket
Sweet 16: Kentucky, Wichita State, Baylor, Duke
Elite 8: Kentucky, Baylor
Upsets: Wichita State over Indiana, Baylor over Duke
50-50 Picks: Iowa State over Connecticut
I pretty much have gone chalk in the South region. I have Kentucky advancing to the Final Four. My only real upsets are Wichita St over Indiana to advance to the Sweet 16 and Baylor over Duke to get into the Elite 8. I also am taking Iowa State over Connecticut, which probably puts me in the minority.
- Don't always listen to the "experts". They likely know more about college basketball than you do, but when they give you an upset pick to watch, they themselves aren't probably going to pick them. No one wants to hear them all say they are going chalk, so keep that in mind.
- Don't pick too many upsets. Last year was a crazy tournament, but there were still only 7 upsets in the round of 64, which is actually below the average of 8.
- There is luck involved, but don't overlook the odds. I always look at how teams would do in a ten game series. You'll see below how I think each team would do in a ten game series.
- Always pick 1, 2 and 3 seeds in their first round games. The points you earn by picking the upset is usually the same you earn for picking the top seed. A 14, 15, or 16 seed is likely not going to advance, so make the smart pick. No one cares if you finally picked the crazy upset after trying for 5 years.
- When in doubt, go chalk.
- Have fun, it only comes around once a year.
I'm starting with the South region where Kentucky is the favorite. I automatically advance all #1 and #2 seeds, so you won't get any insight on #15 and #16 seeds. Remember, filling out a bracket is supposed to be fun, so don't worry to go outside the popular picks. Stay tuned for the rest of the regions which will be coming over the next couple days.
1 Kentucky vs 16 Mississippi Valley State/Western Kentucky
Kentucky wins 10 of 10
Why Kentucky Will Win. . .
Kentucky is the best team in the country. Anthony Davis is the best player in the country. John Calipari continually has top NBA talent on his team and this year is no different with Doron Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Terrence Jones, Darius Miller and Marquis Teague. A Final Four appearance is almost a certainty with this squad.
8 Iowa State vs 9 Connecticut
Iowa State wins 5 of 10
Why Iowa State Will Win. . .
Royce White is a talented 6'8" sophomore who can score from anywhere on the floor. He averages 13 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists and a steal per game, making him an all-around talent which will be hard to contain. Iowa State also shoots the three very well, especially senior guard Scott Christopherson who hits 45% from beyond the arc. White is talented enough to carry the team, but if they shoot well they can compete with anyone, as we saw in Big 12 play where they notched wins against Kansas and Baylor and played Missouri tough twice.
Why Connecticut Will Win. . .
Connecticut is the defending national champions and were #4 in the preseason rankings, but a tough Big East schedule and bad play resulted in a sub-.500 conference record. Nonetheless, Connecticut still is one of the more talented squads in the tourney. Jeremy Lamb, Shabazz Napier, and Alex Oriakhi all return from last year's championship team, and they add talented freshmen Ryan Boatright and Andre Drummond. If this team plays smart, they can make a run, but there is a reason they were 8-10 in the Big East this year.
5 Wichita State vs 12 VCU
Wichita State wins 7 of 10
Why Wichita State Will Win. . .
The Shockers are an experienced team, with five seniors getting significant minutes. Wichita State can play inside and outside. They have a 7-footer in Garrett Stutz and one the nation's best 3-point shooters (50%) in Joe Ragland, both of which are seniors. The Shockers also are smart with the ball, averaging only 12 turnovers per game and near the top in assist-to-turnover ratio. A smart, experienced club can usually do damage in the tournament and Wichita State is no different.
Why VCU Will Win. . .
Last year's cinderella team is dancing again. While they aren't as talented as last season, they play like a team that believes they are. They get after their opponents on defense, leading the nation in steals per game. The Rams average nearly as many steals as turnovers per game, so in order to beat them you must value each possession. Their downfall may be poor shooting from the perimeter and foul line, but if they can get points in transition, they could definitely be a Sweet 16 team.
4 Indiana vs 13 New Mexico State
Indiana wins 8 of 10
Why Indiana Will Win. . .
Indiana has competed against and beaten some of the nations best teams; Kentucky, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan all fell to the Hoosiers. There is one thing those wins have in common though, they were all at home. Indiana struggles away from their home court, going just 8-8 away from Assembly Hall. They also enter the tournament without senior guard Verdell Jones III, whose leadership was huge for Tom Crean's squad. With that being said, they still have Cody Zeller, a big man who can get up and down the floor and score against anyone in the post. They also have a point guard in Jordan Hulls who takes care of the ball and a playmaker in Christian Watford, who if he gets hot, can take Indiana into a Sweet 16.
Why New Mexico State Will Win. . .
The Aggies are lead by double-double machine Wendell McKines, who averages nearly 19 points and 11 rebounds per game. New Mexico State can score with anyone and rebounds very well, but they have not played a ranked team all season, so it will be interesting to see how they match up with the best teams in the country. What may hurt the Aggies is their inability to knock down the three (just under 33% on the season). If they can get after the boards and can get points in the paint, the Aggies could pull off the upset.
6 UNLV vs 11 Colorado
UNLV wins 9 of 10
Why UNLV Will Win. . .
The Runnin' Rebels are one of the best teams in the country in assists per game. In addition to distributing the rock, they also rebound and score very well. At the center of this is Mike Moser, UNLV's talented sophomore forward. Moser averages a double-double in points and rebounds and also adds 2 assists, 2 steals and a block per game. Also, in case anyone forgot, UNLV beat #1 North Carolina back in November by 10. This team could have an Elite 8 run in them.
Why Colorado Will Win. . .
Colorado got into the NCAA tournament by winning the Pac-12 tournament. There is a lot to be said about the Pac-12 when their regular season champion is going to be playing in the NIT. They did take 2 out of 3 against California, their only fellow Pac-12 team in the tournament. The Buffaloes do have momentum coming into the tournament and have four players averaging double-digits this season. Even if Colorado takes care of the ball, Andre Roberson will have to play big for Colarado to avoid an early exit.
3 Baylor vs 14 South Dakota State
Baylor wins 9 of 10
Why Baylor Will Win. . .
Baylor did not lose a game until January 16th and all 7 losses this season have come against tournament teams. Baylor has the length and talent to be a Final Four contender, but they have been inconsistent down the stretch. Perry Jones III is one of the best players in the country and can overpower most defenders. Quincy Acy and Quincy Miller are also mismatches for most teams. Baylor is going to be more athletic than nearly every team they play, so as long as they show up on the big stage, you likely will see them highlighted on a lot of brackets. You likely will also see their highlighter jerseys show up in the Elite 8.
Why South Dakota State Will Win. . .
If you are picking a bracket based on mascots, you might have the Jackrabbits in your Final Four, but even those that aren't are looking at them giving Baylor a run. Most of the attention is on 6'4" guard Nate Wolters, who is a top-10 scorer in the nation. Wolters makes most of his living going to the line, averaging over seven free throws per game. However, Wolters shoots a dismal 24% from beyond the arc, while the rest of the team shoots almost 43%. It will be tough for Wolters to score inside against a lengthy Baylor team, so if he starts to settle for the outside shot, they won't have a chance.
7 Notre Dame vs 10 Xavier
Notre Dame wins 7 of 10
Why Notre Dame Will Win. . .
This game won't be exciting to watch unless you are a Notre Dame fan. The Fighting Irish limit possessions and slow the game down, forcing their opponents to beat them in the half court. Despite losing Tim Abromaitis early in the year to an ACL injury, Notre Dame managed to go 13-5 in the Big East. Their formula for success is limiting turnovers and getting good shots. As long as they stick to their game, they will be a tough out early in the tournament.
Why Xavier Will Win. . .
Even if you follow college basketball, they biggest story about Xavier is their brawl with Cincinnati earlier in the season. After winning that game by 23 points to go to 8-0 on the season, Xavier lost 5 of their next 6 and haven't been the same team since. Tu Holloway is a solid player who can go off at any time and Xavier has 10 players averaging double-digit minutes. Xavier has a solid scorer and depth, which are two things you need in the NCAA tournament. They hadn't beaten a good team since Cincinnati until they beat Saint Louis in the A-10 tournament, but maybe the Musketeers are getting it all together at the right time.
2 Duke vs 15 Lehigh
Duke wins 10 of 10
Why Duke Will Win. . .
You either love them or hate them, but you can't argue that Duke is one of the best programs in the country. Coach K is arguably the best coach out there, which is always something to keep in mind. That being said, Duke hasn't fared well in recent years. Mason and Miles Plumlee provide them with a present down low, Austin Rivers isn't afraid to take the big shot, and Seth Curry can score as well. They have a Final Four caliber team, but the route there isn't easy for the Blue Devils.
My South Region Bracket
Sweet 16: Kentucky, Wichita State, Baylor, Duke
Elite 8: Kentucky, Baylor
Upsets: Wichita State over Indiana, Baylor over Duke
50-50 Picks: Iowa State over Connecticut
I pretty much have gone chalk in the South region. I have Kentucky advancing to the Final Four. My only real upsets are Wichita St over Indiana to advance to the Sweet 16 and Baylor over Duke to get into the Elite 8. I also am taking Iowa State over Connecticut, which probably puts me in the minority.
Monday, March 5, 2012
Packers Draft Predictions
It's that time of the year again. Just when you are finally getting over your Superbowl hangover, the scouting combine and NFL draft are upon us. This year the Packers have some issues to address, but once again are entering the draft with more flexibility than most teams. Their strategy will likely lean towards a best player available approach, but defense needs to be the focus. Sitting at #28, anything could happen. The Packers have done very well with late 1st round picks in recent years, getting Rodgers at #24 in 2005, Matthews at #26 in '09, and Bulaga and Sherrod at #23 and #32 respectively in the last two drafts. Here are my predictions for who the Packers should be targeting in this years' draft:.
The Packers have obvious needs to fill on defense, but this pick will come down to who is the best player available. A perfect fit here would be Nick Perry, a hybrid pass rusher from USC, who would provide pressure opposite Clay Matthews in our 3-4 defense. Perry likely will go anywhere form the mid-late 1st round, so chances are good he could fall to the Pack. It's also possible that CB Janoris Jenkins could fall farther than expected because of character issues. Jenkins has top-10 talent and would give the Packers options with Charles Woodson getting older and Nick Collins' future uncertain. It is even a possibility that the Packers could move up several spots for Jenkins or Perry. If both are gone, other possibilities are DT Fletcher Cox, RB Lamar Miller, or C Peter Konz.
Pick 28, Round 2 - FS George Iloka, Boise State
The Packers are likely going to stay on the defensive side of the ball, and assuming they go Perry in the 1st, they'll look to bolster their secondary with this pick. Iloka is a tall, lengthy safety who will need to bulk up in the NFL, but he has solid potential and had a solid showing at the combine. Boise State isn't on the same level as SEC, Pac-12, or Big Ten schools when it comes to strength & conditioning, so had Iloka been elsewhere his stock would probably be much higher. The Packers are pretty solid against the run, so Iloka would be allowed to roam as a free safety, where he is at his best. Other choices here are DE Vinny Curry, CB Jayron Hosley, or CB Trumaine Johnson.
Pick 28, Round 3 - OG Senio Kelemete, Washington
The Packers will need to address depth on the offensive line at some point in the draft and likely it will come here. It's going to be a matter of Ted Thompson taking the top lineman on his board, so I'm going with Senio Kelemete, a versatile lineman who is better suited for the interior in the NFL. Kelemete is athletic and has the ability to get to the second level on running plays, but lacks the size and technique to be a tackle in the NFL. Nonetheless, his versatility will help provide depth for the Packers who haven't addressed the issue so far this offseason. Again it all comes down to who is available and where Thompson has them ranked, but other names that could be called here are Kevin Zeitler, Amini Silatolu, James Brown, or Brandon Washington.
Pick 28, Round 4 - ILB Vontaze Burfict, Arizona State
This name should sound familiar to college football followers, as Burfict was named Pac-10 freshman of the year in 2009 and was once considered one of the top linebackers in the country. Since then, things have gone downhill fairly quickly. Burfict has had on-field and off-field issues and didn't impress anyone at the combine. So why would I have the Packers taking him here in the 4th round? Well the real answer is why not? The Packers are a good team and taking a chance on a player like Burfict is something they can afford to do. Burfict may not be the elite linebacker many once thought, but he's also not a lost cause like some think. Somewhere in the middle is a solid NFL talent that, in the right situation, could be a steal at this point in the draft. Other possibilities here are QB Kirk Cousins, C Quentin Saulsberry, or TE Ladarius Green.
Pick 28, Round 5 - QB Russell Wilson, Wisconsin
You probably noticed I listed Kirk Cousins as a possibility with the last pick, well with Matt Flynn gone, the Packers need more than just Graham Harrell behind Aaron Rodgers on the depth chart. There may be some bias from me here, but I like the Packers taking Wilson from my Alma mater. The knock on Wilson is his size, but he is athletic and intelligent. Many compare him to Drew Brees, who also was overlooked by many for his size. There's not much else to say about this pick, but anything could happen here. Other names you should know are CB Justin Bethel and LB Tank Carder.
Pick 28, Round 6 - CB Justin Bethel, Presbyterian
Pick 28, Round 7 - OT Josh Oglesby, Wisconsin
Well that does it for my Packers draft predictions. If they get 2 of the guys I've listed above, it will be a good draft for the Green and Yellow. Look out for my full round 1 mock draft coming in the next couple weeks.
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