US Open Picks

It's a week away now, and I'm really gearing up for the US Open.  Whether you play fantasy golf or like to do some sports betting, you probably would like to know who is going to be in contention before it starts.  Well I am here to tell you who I think will be in the picture on Sunday.  I did my best impression of Moneyball and used some statistical analysis to calculate who has the skill set to do well next weekend.  I could just list the best guys in the world and be done with it, but instead I'm giving you 4 golfers in the top 25, top 100 and outside the top 100 in the world rankings..  Do with this what you will.

Before I get into it, here are the factors I took into account to get my composite rankings:
Strokes Gained - Putting, Average Going For It Shot Distance, Average Distance After Going For It, Driving Accuracy, Scrambling, 3-Putt Avoidance, Last 3 Tournament success, Last 3 US Open success, World Rank

Golfers ranked 1-25:

Luke Donald - It should be no surprise to see the #1 player in the world on this list.  Donald comes into the US Open playing well, having finished 12th, 1st, 6th and 3rd in his past four tournaments.  All he needs now is a major. Donald is near the top in Strokes Gained - Putting, a stat which I used in my rankings.  His game is solid all-around right now and his style of play should fair well next weekend.  He'll make a lot of pars, but in the US Open that will keep him safely on the first page of the leaderboard.  Statistically, Donald is my pick to win it.

Tiger Woods - It's amazing how badly Tiger seems to be playing, yet he is hitting the ball better than ever and has 2 wins on the season.  He is ranked 1st in both total driving and ball striking for the first time since 2000, a year in which he happened to win 3 majors.  He also is ranked 1st in Average Going For It Shot Distance and Average Distance After Going For It, meaning he is leaving himself in great position off the tee and he is hitting it close from there.  The only thing that is holding Tiger back is putting.  If Tiger can improve his mental approach on the greens and start dropping some putts, he will win multiple majors this year.

Sergio Garcia - Like Donald, Garcia is also chasing that first major win.  He is getting close though, with top 10 finishes in 2 of his last 3 US Opens and top 12 finishes in each of his last 4 majors.  At one point it seemed it was only a matter of time before Sergio notched his first major, but now the window is closing for Sergio.  He's only 32, but he's not exactly in his prime either.  A top 10 finish for Sergio is very likely, but he will need to play his best golf to be in contention late.

Zach Johnson - Johnson is one of the hottest golfers on the Tour right now, with a win and two runner-up finishes in his last four tournaments.  He also has a major under his belt, unlike the majority of guys on this list.  Much like Donald, Johnson is not going to be posting low scores, but he will be relevant on Sunday.  In the end I don't see Johnson winning it, but he should have a solid showing.

Golfers ranked 26-100:
Jim Furyk - Every time it seems like Furyk is going to fade away, he comes back playing well.  Although he hasn't fared well in majors in the past couple years, Furyk comes into the US Open playing solid golf.  He won the US Open in 2003 and the FedEx cup in 2010, so Furyk clearly has what it takes to win.  According to my rankings, a top 3 finish for Furyk is likely.

Bo Van Pelt - Van Pelt is a name you see on the leaderboards often, just rarely on the top.  He only has one PGA Tour victory in his career, but his consistency has him at #30 in the world golf rankings.  Van Pelt already has 5 top 10 finishes this year and will take that success into the US Open.  A top 10 finish for Van Pelt is possible, and a top 20 is a certainty.

Nicolas Colsaerts - Nicolas has been playing great golf on the European Tour all year long, and is currently 6th in the Race To Dubai.  Although Europeans don't usually fare well at the US Open, Colsaerts is playing great golf, which can translate to any course.

Ian Poulter -  When you dress and act like Poulter does, you need to be able to back it up.  Unfortunately, it isn't just him and Tiger, as he once predicted.  That being said, Poulter does have a solid game and finished 7th at the Masters this year.  Perhaps his prophecy comes true and it's just him and Tiger on Sunday afternoon, but likely he'll be in the clubhouse well before Tiger's off the course.

Golfers ranked 100+:
Jonas Blixt - You probably haven't hear of this guy, but this Swede played golf at Florida State and joined the PGA Tour this season.  After a rough start, Blixt has finished 13th or better in four of his last 5 tournaments.  You may see Blixt post a low round or two and find himself in the top 15 at the end of the tournament.

Michael Thompson - He hasn't done anything spectacular this year, perhaps that's why he is outside the top 100, but statistically Thompson isn't far away.  He ranks near the top in Strokes Gained - Putting and both Going For It statistics.  If ha can improve on his driving accuracy and keep the ball in the fairway, He could sneak into the top 20.

Davis Love III - It may be unfair to put DL3 in this list, but the Ryder Cup captain has played well at the US Open lately.  DL3 finished T6 and T11 in 2010 and 2011 respectively.  He had a stretch from 1995-2005 where he finished in the top 10 in 19 of 44 majors.  It's unlikely that the 48-year-old will finish top 10 this year, but a top 20 is very possible.

Blake Adams - This guy is a total workaholic (if you get that reference).  Frankly, there is a limited amount of players to choose from outside the top 100, and Adams is just a longshot.  He did manage to finish in the top 20 in both the Memorial and The Players last month.  A top 20 finish in a major would be a success for the first timer.

Stay tuned for my complete rankings for the entire field.