- A premier scorer should never be overlooked. We have seen in the past that one player can carry a team. We had Kemba Walker last year and names like Jimmer Fredette, Stephen Curry, and Carmelo Anthony in recent history.
- Don't overlook recent tournament history. Take Syracuse for example. In the past 5 years, the Orange have been no worse than a #5 seed, but they have only reached the Sweet Sixteen twice in that span.
Again, below each matchup I'm giving you what I believe would be the result of a ten game series between the 2 teams. I'm also automatically advancing the #1 and #2 seeds. Here we go:
1 Syracuse vs 16 UNC Asheville
Syracuse wins 10 of 10
Why Syracuse Will Win. . .
Syracuse has only two losses on the season and is one of the deepest teams in the country. Still, most experts don't have the Orange in their Final Four and I am no different. The Orange have a hall of fame coach and play their signature zone which gives some teams problems. What they don't have is that premier scorer that can carry them in the second half of a game. They are also susceptible on the boards. If they run into a team that can hit 3's against their zone they could fall early. Still, it would be hard to not see Syracuse at least move on to the Sweet 16.
8 Kansas State vs 9 Southern Miss
Kansas State wins 8 of 10
Why Kansas State Will Win. . .
If there is one team in the country that Missouri doesn't want to play, it's Kansas State. The Wildcats beat Missouri twice this season and also notched wins against Baylor, Alabama, and Texas. Kansas State has shown it can compete against any team out there. They have the ability to get to the rim and clean up the boards. Jamar Samuels and Rodney McGruder could take this squad into the Sweet 16.
Why Southern Miss Will Win. . .
There isn't anything spectacular about Southern Miss. They haven't beaten or even played a ranked team all season, and that lack of experience against top teams could hurt them in the tournament. The Golden Eagles do have some solid depth and can get scoring from several different players. They also rebound well and take care of the ball, so they could give Kansas State a tough game. A Sweet 16 is unlikely, but in the NCAA tournament, you never know.
5 Vanderbilt vs 12 Harvard
Vanderbilt wins 9 of 10
Why Vanderbilt Will Win. . .
The Commodores are the trendy pick in the East region. They are coming off a big win over #1 Kentucky and an SEC tournament title. John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor can score with the best of them and Festus Ezeli is a force in the interior. However, their win against Kentucky came in their 3rd attempt and they are only 3-6 against ranked teams. This team has lofty Final Four expectations that will be difficult to live up to, but if they can build off of their momentum from the SEC tournament, they have the talent to go far.
Why Harvard Will Win. . .
Harvard basketball is at it's pinnacle right now. They are in the NCAA tournament for only the second time, the other being back in 1946. They also are the Alma mater of Jeremy Lin, who been all the hype in the sports world over the last few months. The Crimson are probably the smartest team in the tournament as well. All that being said, Harvard doesn't match up athletically with a Vanderbilt team. It would take a near perfect game to win their first tournament game ever, but they did beat Florida State early in the season. If you are looking for a 12-5 upset, I'd probably avoid this one, but that's also what they said about Lin.
4 Wisconsin vs 13 Montana
Wisconsin wins 9 of 10
Why Wisconsin Will Win. . .
It isn't always pretty to watch and it usually doesn't look spectacular in the box score, but the Badgers know how to win. The formula for the Badgers is simple, play defense and take care of the ball. This is evident as the Badgers have the best scoring defense in the country, are 8th in field goal percentage defense and are second in turnovers with less than 9 per game. The Badgers are led by senior guard Jordan Taylor, who has the ability to hit big shots and can carry this team in close games. The Badgers also shoot free throws very well and can get hot from beyond the arc. The Badgers are usually in the upset talk, but this is Wisconsin's 15th straight tournament appearance and they have won at least one game in each of the last 5 years. Expect the Badgers to make a run and have a possible match up with Ohio State in the Elite 8.
Why Montana Will Win. . .
Montana enters the tournament having won 14 straight and 20 of their last 21 games. The Grizzlies get great production from Will Cherry (16 PPG) and have five players averaging 9+ PPG. Their strength, however, is defense. They are solid in both scoring defense and field goal percentage defense. This team would throw most teams off their game, but may play right into Wisconsin's style. Their lack of depth is a concern as well, so even though some people have labeled Montana as a possible upset team, it will be difficult for the Grizzlies to get past Wisconsin.
6 Cincinnati vs 11 Texas
Texas wins 5 of 10
Why Cincinnati Will Win. . .
Cincinnati has had some perplexing losses this season and has also had some great wins, including a win over #2 Syracuse in the Big East tournament. The Bearcats are a physical squad who have a presence in Yancy Gates, who nearly averages a double-double. In all, the Bearcats have four starters who score in double digits and they all rebound well. Cincinnati's season could have fell apart following the brawl (and 20 point loss) against Xavier, but the team rebounded nicely and played well down the stretch. They are a tough out and could find themselves in the Sweet 16.
Why Texas Will Win. . .
J'Covan Brown knows how to score. Brown averages over 20 points per game and is a threat to put up 30 on any given night. Although the Longhorns have only won 20 games, they played the top teams in the Big 12 closely. Texas does rebound well and can get scoring from other sources, but they likely will go as Brown goes. Texas may be going home early, but if Brown gets hot, he could easily carry Texas into a Sweet 16.
3 Florida State vs Saint Bonaventure
Florida State wins 9 of 10
Why Florida State Will Win. . .
Florida State did something this year that no team has done in 15 years, they beat both Duke and North Carolina twice in the same season. They also come into the tournament with momentum; their last two wins are on back-to-back nights against those aforementioned teams. The Seminoles do this with defense, ranking 5th in field goal percentage defense. They also have a knack for knocking down the big three. If Deividas Dulkys can play like he did in their 33 point beat-down of North Carolina and Michael Snaer is on, this team could find itself in the Final Four.
Why Saint Bonaventure Will Win. . .
The Bonnies played themselves into the tournament by knocking off Xavier in the A-10 championship. They will need solid play from 6'9" senior Andrew Nicholson, who averages 18 points and 8 rebounds per game, but it will take a flawless game for them to get past Florida State in the round of 64. However, Saint Bonaventure burst some bubbles when it won the A-10 tournament, so they are playing with nothing to lose, which is always dangerous.
7 Gonzaga vs 10 West Virginia
West Viriginia wins 6 of 10
Why Gonzaga Will Win. . .
It was way back in 1999 when Gonzaga became everyone's favorite cinderella team. Gonzaga is now a mainstay in March, but that hasn't resulted in much success once they get there. They advanced to the Sweet 16 in three straight years from 1999-2001, but have only made it there twice since then. This Gonzaga team is solid, but not as good as some of their past teams. They do have four players averaging double digits and rebound well. It used to be the popular thing to pick Gonzaga, but this year you may want to look elsewhere for a cinderella. But then again, they have always done their best as the underdog.
Why West Virginia Will Win. . .
West Virginia has the Big East's top scorer in senior forward Kevin Jones. Jones also averages 11 boards and gets a block per game. The team as a whole rebounds well and they get added scoring from Darryl Bryant and Deniz Kilicli. There is no doubt about it though, this is Jones' team. The Mountaineers have been struggling as of late however, having lost 8 of their last 12 games. If West Virginia is going to win, it will need to be at the hands of Kevin Jones.
2 Ohio State vs 15 Loyola (MD)
Ohio State wins 10 of 10
Why Ohio State Will Win. . .
In a region full of elite scorers, the best player has to be Jared Sullinger. Sullinger is nearly unstoppable down low and is simply a beast. Along with Sullinger's 17 points per game, the Buckeyes get another 30 points per game from Deshaun Thomas and William Buford. With Aaron Craft spreading the ball around effectively, this team is hard to contain. It's surprising to see seven losses on their record, but six of those came against top-20 teams and the loss against Kansas came without Sullinger. This team is poised to make a Final Four and likely would've been a #1 seed had won the Big Ten final against Michigan State.
My East Region Bracket
Sweet 16: Syracuse, Wisconsin, Florida State, Ohio State
Elite 8: Wisconsin, Ohio State
Upsets: Texas over Cincinnati, West Virginia over Gonzaga, Wisconsin over Syracuse
50-50 Picks: Texas over Cincinnati
I believe the East Region is the best from top to bottom. I have Ohio State coming out of this region, and the only team I see possibly beating them is Wisconsin, since they did so earlier this year. Again, I don't have many upsets early besides Texas and West Virginia winning in the round of 64, but I do have Wisconsin knocking off Syracuse. I could really go either way with the Texas-Cincinnati game, but I took Texas because I believe the Big 12 is better at the top than the Big East is this year.
I have a very different outcome in this bracket. I have Syracuse over Vanderbilt and Ohio State over Florida State. I then have Syracuse beating Ohio State, but I have went back and forth on that game about ten times. I just can't decide. It's Syracuse at the moment...
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