Who should I draft with the 2nd pick? Should I target a QB in round 1? If I don't get a QB early, who should I target? What rookie will have the biggest impact?
These are all questions that are commonplace at this time of the year. As we approach the week 3 of the preseason, fantasy football drafts are in full swing. Every expert has posted their mock drafts, sleepers, busts, etc., but if you read enough of them, you realize there are very few things that are a consensus when it comes to fantasy football. Unfortunately, most of the time the "experts" get it wrong. This doesn't mean they don't know anything, it's just the nature of the game. People don't want to read "don't draft rookies, they aren't proven" or "when in doubt, take the best player available". That simply doesn't sell tickets. They are put in a position to name a player and that's what they do.
I did not want to do that, so I'm just going to give you my top 10 at each position. More importantly though, I'm going to give you the draft strategy I've used for years. Some details of it have changed as the fantasy landscape has, but the idea remains the same. But first, let's answer those questions:
Here's a little disclosure before we begin:
Like any advice, you always need to take your league's scoring system into consideration. My advice is geared towards a league that starts QB, WRx3, RBx2, TE, FLEX, K, DEF. Scoring is (Pass TD-6, 25 pass yards-1, Rush/Receiving TD-6, 10 yards rush/receiving-1, .5 points per reception).
Who should I draft with the 2nd pick?
This is simple for me, it's Aaron Rodgers. Now for the old school fantasy managers like myself, it aches me to throw out the idea of not going RB with my first pick, but the game has changed. RB's are no longer the fantasy beasts, top tier QB's are. I could go into all the statistics, but I don't have the time. Just trust me on this one. Just consider this stat-line for Rodgers: (250 yards/ 3 TD/ 1 INT). Now most people would consider that a mediocre game for the league's best QB, but compare that to this stat-line for Ray Rice: (120 yards, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 30 yards, 1 TD). That would be a great stat-line for any RB on your fantasy team. Well the difference between Rodgers' average game and Rice's very good game is 3 points. In 15 games, Rodgers' averaged 32.5 points/week, Rice averaged just over 21 points/week in his 16 games. So there it is in a nutshell. Rodgers is not only the more consistent fantasy scorer, but also the safer pick, given the health of RB's in the league. Here is the segue into the next question.
Should I target a QB in round 1?
I already said I would take Rodgers with the 2nd pick, but I'd probably take him with the 1st pick. I will answer this question by building upon my last answer. Rodgers averaged 32.5 points/week, while the #10 fantasy QB averaged 18.1 points/week. Rice averaged 21.0 points/week, while the #10 RB average 12.7 points/week. It is just a matter of consistency. A top tier QB is a better bet than a top tier RB. I would take Rodgers, Brady or Brees in the 1st round without any hesitation. However, my next few QB's (Stafford, Cutler, Newton) don't have the track record of consistency, so if you don't get one of the top 3, you should go elsewhere in round 1.
If I don't get a QB early, who should I target?
Outside of Rodgers/Brady/Brees, every QB has question marks going into this season. You will probably see those 3, as well as Stafford and Newton gone in the first 2 rounds. According to most rankings, you would be looking at Vick, Eli, Peyton, Romo and Rivers next. These are solid QB's, but you are going to get better value with a WR/RB in rounds 3-6. You'll likely see those guys go, and you'll probably see some joker take RG3 or Luck too early also. By round 7, you probably will see 8-12 QB's get drafted, depending on the size of your league. At this point, you should pull the trigger on Cutler, Ryan, or Schaub (I have Cutler ranked as my #5 QB, but you'll see that in my rankings later). If you don't get one of the perennial top tier QB's, be patient, there is plenty of value to get later.
What rookie will have the biggest impact?
Last year we saw rookies make a big impact (AJ Green, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, etc.) so there's no reason to say that rookies can't help out your fantasy team. But I'll say this once, DRAFT ROOKIES AT YOUR OWN RISK! There is a lot of hype and expectations for Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, David Wilson, RG3, Andrew Luck, Justin Blackmon, etc., but they all have one thing in common, they haven't played a regular season game yet. When it comes to rookies, people overpay way too much. That being said, Trent Richardson will indeed have the biggest impact of any rookie. He will be running behind a very good offensive line and he will have a rookie QB, so you should expect a heavy work load. He's not worth the possible 1st round pick it will take to get him, but if you are dead set on taking a rookie or he falls to the 3rd round, then I say he's your man.
Now that we have all that out of the way, here is the strategy I approach every draft with:
1. Don't Overpay For One Big Year
Every year, you see guys who haven't done much get taken way too early. Let's take Eddie Royal for example. In the 2008 season, rookie WR Eddie Royal broke out with 91 catches, 980 yards and 4 TD's. The following season, people were taking him far ahead of consistent receivers like Donald Driver, who in 2008 had 74 catches, 1012 yards, 5 TD's in 2008, which was his 5th straight 1000 yard season. Well as they say, the rest is history. Driver went on to notch 70 catches, 1061 yards and 6 TD's in 2009. As for Royal, he has notched a total of 115 catches, 1127 yards, and 4 TD's over the last 3 seasons. Ironically, Royal is a decent sleeper to bounce-back in San Diego this year, but when you have the choice, take the consistent producer over the one year wonder.
2. Pay Attention To Details
Situations change from year to year in the NFL. Players get traded, coaches get fired, schemes get changed, so you have to pay attention to the details. A lot of people are following the Peyton Manning situation closely to see if he's healthy, but I'm not concerned, because I'm not drafting him. Peyton is one of the greatest QB's to play the game, but there are too many changes for it to work well. He no longer has Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, so there goes any familiarity he had with his targets. He is going from playing in ideal playing conditions indoors in Indianapolis to playing outside, up in the mountains of Denver. The one knock on Peyton was his postseason performance, which coincidentally takes place in January, up in the snow and cold. He could have a good year, but watch for the warning signs.
3. Sexy Picks Don't Win Championships
Everyone wants to make the sexy pick that gets the draft room buzzing "that's a great pick bro" or "I love that pick", but think of it this way, draft picks are like girlfriends. Yeah, you want the girlfriend that is so hot that your friends invite her to hang out at the fantasy draft just to look at her, but in reality, the girlfriend that cooks the wings, serves up the appetizers, and delivers the beer to the draft room is by far the better pick. So what does that mean this year? Ryan Mathews' #4 ranking in Yahoo! will get your friends excited at the draft, but #39 ranked Steven Jackson will continue to make you happy every week.
4. Take A Chance Late
I've been preaching consistency early in the draft, but if you look at my teams, you'll see I draft for upside after my first 6-7 picks. Once you start to fill your starting spots, start looking at your sleepers. Reaching for someone in the 8th round isn't going to hurt your team if you have a starting lineup full of consistent producers. It is all about risk vs. reward, so now is your time to make your splash.
5. Please Don't Take A Kicker Or Defense Early
I'm not going to talk about taking kickers much, because if you are not waiting until the last round to grab one, you probably aren't winning anyways. Excluding Akers (ranked #20 going into the year) who had a huge year last year, 28 points separated the #2 and #16 kickers, only 1.75 points/week. So please, don't draft a kicker until the last round, they aren't worth it. Now let's get to defense. It's a little trickier because defense strategy depends on the size of the league. If you are in a 10 team league or smaller, you should be using the free agent pool to play matchups every week. Most managers will have at most 2 defenses on their roster, meaning in a 10-team league, you will 14 defenses to choose from every week. Now if your league is 12 teams or bigger, you probably don't want to go this route. Your defense pool will probably be in the single digits, so getting a solid defense is much more necessary, but you still shouldn't take them early. Keep in mind that defenses change every year in the NFL. The New York Jets defense was the top ranked fantasy defense only 2 years ago, but now they are ranked #10. You simply can't predict how well a defense will be, so why take the risk early?
I hope I still have your attention, because here are my rankings:
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers
Tom Brady
Drew Brees
Matthew Stafford
Jay Cutler
Cam Newton
Michael Vick
Eli Manning
Matt Ryan
Tony Romo
Runningback
Arian Foster
LeSean McCoy
Ray Rice
Chris Johnson
Darren McFadden
Matt Forte
Maurice Jones-Drew
Adrian Peterson
Ryan Mathews
Trent Richardson
Wide Receiver
Calvin Johnson
Brandon Marshall
Larry Fitzgerald
Andre Johnson
AJ Green
Victor Cruz
Roddy White
Greg Jennings
Wes Welker
Hakeem Nicks
Tight End
Jimmy Graham
Rob Gronkowski
Vernon Davis
Antonio Gates
Jermichael Finley
Aaron Hernandez
Brandon Pettigrew
Fred Davis
Jason Witten
Owen Daniels
If you made it this far, thanks for reading. Feel free to share you thoughts and good luck on draft day!
-Erd
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