NCAA Tournament - South Region Preview

It's March Madness time again and everyone is busy filling out there bracket.  Whether you are going chalk or trying to pick the next Cinderella team, you can't go wrong.  There really is a lot of luck in picking a bracket, since almost any team can win on any given day.  Here are a few tips before we get started:

• Don't always listen to the "experts".  They likely know more about college basketball than you do, but  when they give you an upset pick to watch, they themselves aren't probably going to pick them.  No one wants to hear them all say they are going chalk, so keep that in mind.
• Don't pick too many upsets.  Last year was a crazy tournament, but there were still only 7 upsets in the round of 64, which is actually below the average of 8.
• There is luck involved, but don't overlook the odds.  I always look at how teams would do in a ten game series.  You'll see below how I think each team would do in a ten game series.
• Always pick 1, 2 and 3 seeds in their first round games.  The points you earn by picking the upset is usually the same you earn for picking the top seed.  A 14, 15, or 16 seed is likely not going to advance, so make the smart pick. No one cares if you finally picked the crazy upset after trying for 5 years.
• When in doubt, go chalk. 
• Have fun, it only comes around once a year. 

I'm starting with the South region where Kentucky is the favorite.  I automatically advance all #1 and #2 seeds, so you won't get any insight on #15 and #16 seeds.  Remember, filling out a bracket is supposed to be fun, so don't worry to go outside the popular picks.  Stay tuned for the rest of the regions which will be coming over the next couple days.


1 Kentucky vs 16 Mississippi Valley State/Western Kentucky
Kentucky wins 10 of 10

Why Kentucky Will Win. . .
Kentucky is the best team in the country.  Anthony Davis is the best player in the country.  John Calipari continually has top NBA talent on his team and this year is no different with Doron Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Terrence Jones, Darius Miller and Marquis Teague.  A Final Four appearance is almost a certainty with this squad.

8 Iowa State vs 9 Connecticut
Iowa State wins 5 of 10

Why Iowa State Will Win. . .
Royce White is a talented 6'8" sophomore who can score from anywhere on the floor.  He averages 13 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists and a steal per game, making him an all-around talent which will be hard to contain.  Iowa State also shoots the three very well, especially senior guard Scott Christopherson who hits 45% from beyond the arc.  White is talented enough to carry the team, but if they shoot well they can compete with anyone, as we saw in Big 12 play where they notched wins against Kansas and Baylor and played Missouri tough twice.

Why Connecticut Will Win. . . 
Connecticut is the defending national champions and were #4 in the preseason rankings, but a tough Big East schedule and bad play resulted in a sub-.500 conference record.  Nonetheless, Connecticut still is one of the more talented squads in the tourney.  Jeremy Lamb, Shabazz Napier, and Alex Oriakhi all return from last year's championship team, and they add talented freshmen Ryan Boatright and Andre Drummond.  If this team plays smart, they can make a run, but there is a reason they were 8-10 in the Big East this year.

5 Wichita State vs 12 VCU
Wichita State wins 7 of 10


Why Wichita State Will Win. . . 
The Shockers are an experienced team, with five seniors getting significant minutes.  Wichita State can play inside and outside.  They have a 7-footer in Garrett Stutz and one the nation's best 3-point shooters (50%) in Joe Ragland, both of which are seniors.  The Shockers also are smart with the ball, averaging only 12 turnovers per game and near the top in assist-to-turnover ratio.  A smart, experienced club can usually do damage in the tournament and Wichita State is no different.

Why VCU Will Win. . .
Last year's cinderella team is dancing again.  While they aren't as talented as last season, they play like a team that believes they are.  They get after their opponents on defense, leading the nation in steals per game. The Rams average nearly as many steals as turnovers per game, so in order to beat them you must value each possession.  Their downfall may be poor shooting from the perimeter and foul line, but if they can get points in transition, they could definitely be a Sweet 16 team.

4 Indiana vs 13 New Mexico State
Indiana wins 8 of 10


Why Indiana Will Win. . .
Indiana has competed against and beaten some of the nations best teams; Kentucky, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan all fell to the Hoosiers.  There is one thing those wins have in common though, they were all at home.  Indiana struggles away from their home court, going just 8-8 away from Assembly Hall.  They also enter the tournament without senior guard Verdell Jones III, whose leadership was huge for Tom Crean's squad.  With that being said, they still have Cody Zeller, a big man who can get up and down the floor and score against anyone in the post.  They also have a point guard in Jordan Hulls who takes care of the ball and a playmaker in Christian Watford, who if he gets hot, can take Indiana into a Sweet 16.

Why New Mexico State Will Win. . . 
The Aggies are lead by double-double machine Wendell McKines, who averages nearly 19 points and 11 rebounds per game.  New Mexico State can score with anyone and rebounds very well, but they have not played a ranked team all season, so it will be interesting to see how they match up with the best teams in the country.  What may hurt the Aggies is their inability to knock down the three (just under 33% on the season).  If they can get after the boards and can get points in the paint, the Aggies could pull off the upset.

6 UNLV vs 11 Colorado
UNLV wins 9 of 10


Why UNLV Will Win. . .
The Runnin' Rebels are one of the best teams in the country in assists per game.  In addition to distributing the rock, they also rebound and score very well.  At the center of this is Mike Moser, UNLV's talented sophomore forward.  Moser averages a double-double in points and rebounds and also adds 2 assists, 2 steals and a block per game.  Also, in case anyone forgot, UNLV beat #1 North Carolina back in November by 10.  This team could have an Elite 8 run in them.

Why Colorado Will Win. . .
Colorado got into the NCAA tournament by winning the Pac-12 tournament.  There is a lot to be said about the Pac-12 when their regular season champion is going to be playing in the NIT.  They did take 2 out of 3 against California, their only fellow Pac-12 team in the tournament.  The Buffaloes do have momentum coming into the tournament and have four players averaging double-digits this season.  Even if Colorado takes care of the ball, Andre Roberson will have to play big for Colarado to avoid an early exit.

3 Baylor vs 14 South Dakota State
Baylor wins 9 of 10


Why Baylor Will Win. . .
Baylor did not lose a game until January 16th and all 7 losses this season have come against tournament teams.  Baylor has the length and talent to be a Final Four contender, but they have been inconsistent down the stretch.  Perry Jones III is one of the best players in the country and can overpower most defenders.  Quincy Acy and Quincy Miller are also mismatches for most teams.  Baylor is going to be more athletic than nearly every team they play, so as long as they show up on the big stage, you likely will see them highlighted on a lot of brackets.  You likely will also see their highlighter jerseys show up in the Elite 8.

Why South Dakota State Will Win. . . 
If you are picking a bracket based on mascots, you might have the Jackrabbits in your Final Four, but even those that aren't are looking at them giving Baylor a run.  Most of the attention is on 6'4" guard Nate Wolters, who is a top-10 scorer in the nation.  Wolters makes most of his living going to the line, averaging over seven free throws per game.  However, Wolters shoots a dismal 24% from beyond the arc, while the rest of the team shoots almost 43%.  It will be tough for Wolters to score inside against a lengthy Baylor team, so if he starts to settle for the outside shot, they won't have a chance.

7 Notre Dame vs 10 Xavier
Notre Dame wins 7 of 10


Why Notre Dame Will Win. . . 
This game won't be exciting to watch unless you are a Notre Dame fan.  The Fighting Irish limit possessions and slow the game down, forcing their opponents to beat them in the half court.  Despite losing Tim Abromaitis early in the year to an ACL injury, Notre Dame managed to go 13-5 in the Big East.  Their formula for success is limiting turnovers and getting good shots.  As long as they stick to their game, they will be a tough out early in the tournament.

Why Xavier Will Win. . .
Even if you follow college basketball, they biggest story about Xavier is their brawl with Cincinnati earlier in the season.  After winning that game by 23 points to go to 8-0 on the season, Xavier lost 5 of their next 6 and haven't been the same team since.  Tu Holloway is a solid player who can go off at any time and Xavier has 10 players averaging double-digit minutes.  Xavier has a solid scorer and depth, which are two things you need in the NCAA tournament.  They hadn't beaten a good team since Cincinnati until they beat Saint Louis in the A-10 tournament, but maybe the Musketeers are getting it all together at the right time.


2 Duke vs 15 Lehigh
Duke wins 10 of 10


Why Duke Will Win. . .
You either love them or hate them, but you can't argue that Duke is one of the best programs in the country. Coach K is arguably the best coach out there, which is always something to keep in mind.  That being said, Duke hasn't fared well in recent years.  Mason and Miles Plumlee provide them with a present down low, Austin Rivers isn't afraid to take the big shot, and Seth Curry can score as well.  They have a Final Four caliber team, but the route there isn't easy for the Blue Devils.


My South Region Bracket


Sweet 16: Kentucky, Wichita State, Baylor, Duke
Elite 8: Kentucky, Baylor
Upsets: Wichita State over Indiana, Baylor over Duke
50-50 Picks: Iowa State over Connecticut

I pretty much have gone chalk in the South region.  I have Kentucky advancing to the Final Four.  My only real upsets are Wichita St over Indiana to advance to the Sweet 16 and Baylor over Duke to get into the Elite 8.  I also am taking Iowa State over Connecticut, which probably puts me in the minority.