Monday, March 5, 2012

Packers Draft Predictions

It's that time of the year again.  Just when you are finally getting over your Superbowl hangover, the scouting combine and NFL draft are upon us.  This year the Packers have some issues to address, but once again are entering the draft with more flexibility than most teams.  Their strategy will likely lean towards a best player available approach, but defense needs to be the focus.  Sitting at #28, anything could happen.  The Packers have done very well with late 1st round picks in recent years, getting Rodgers at #24 in 2005, Matthews at #26 in '09, and Bulaga and Sherrod at #23 and #32 respectively in the last two drafts.  Here are my predictions for who the Packers should be targeting in this years' draft:.

Pick 28, Round 1 - DE Nick Perry, USC

The Packers have obvious needs to fill on defense, but this pick will come down to who is the best player available.  A perfect fit here would be Nick Perry, a hybrid pass rusher from USC, who would provide pressure opposite Clay Matthews in our 3-4 defense.  Perry likely will go anywhere form the mid-late 1st round, so chances are good he could fall to the Pack.  It's also possible that CB Janoris Jenkins could fall farther than expected because of character issues.  Jenkins has top-10 talent and would give the Packers options with Charles Woodson getting older and Nick Collins' future uncertain.  It is even a possibility that the Packers could move up several spots for Jenkins or Perry.  If both are gone, other possibilities are DT Fletcher Cox, RB Lamar Miller, or C Peter Konz.

Pick 28, Round 2 - FS George Iloka, Boise State

The Packers are likely going to stay on the defensive side of the ball, and assuming they go Perry in the 1st, they'll look to bolster their secondary with this pick.  Iloka is a tall, lengthy safety who will need to bulk up in the NFL, but he has solid potential and had a solid showing at the combine.  Boise State isn't on the same level as SEC, Pac-12, or Big Ten schools when it comes to strength & conditioning, so had Iloka been elsewhere his stock would probably be much higher.  The Packers are pretty solid against the run, so Iloka would be allowed to roam as a free safety, where he is at his best.  Other choices here are DE Vinny Curry, CB Jayron Hosley, or CB Trumaine Johnson.






Pick 28, Round 3 - OG Senio Kelemete, Washington

The Packers will need to address depth on the offensive line at some point in the draft and likely it will come here.  It's going to be a matter of Ted Thompson taking the top lineman on his board, so I'm going with Senio Kelemete, a versatile lineman who is better suited for the interior in the NFL.  Kelemete is athletic and has the ability to get to the second level on running plays, but lacks the size and technique to be a tackle in the NFL.  Nonetheless, his versatility will help provide depth for the Packers who haven't addressed the issue so far this offseason.  Again it all comes down to who is available and where Thompson has them ranked, but other names that could be called here are Kevin Zeitler, Amini Silatolu, James Brown, or Brandon Washington.

Pick 28, Round 4 - ILB Vontaze Burfict, Arizona State

This name should sound familiar to college football followers, as Burfict was named Pac-10 freshman of the year in 2009 and was once considered one of the top linebackers in the country.  Since then, things have gone downhill fairly quickly.  Burfict has had on-field and off-field issues and didn't impress anyone at the combine. So why would I have the Packers taking him here in the 4th round? Well the real answer is why not?  The Packers are a good team and taking a chance on a player like Burfict is something they can afford to do.  Burfict may not be the elite linebacker many once thought, but he's also not a lost cause like some think.  Somewhere in the middle is a solid NFL talent that, in the right situation, could be a steal at this point in the draft.  Other possibilities here are QB Kirk Cousins, C Quentin Saulsberry, or TE Ladarius Green.

Pick 28, Round 5 - QB Russell Wilson, Wisconsin

You probably noticed I listed Kirk Cousins as a possibility with the last pick, well with Matt Flynn gone, the Packers need more than just Graham Harrell behind Aaron Rodgers on the depth chart.  There may be some bias from me here, but I like the Packers taking Wilson from my Alma mater.  The knock on Wilson is his size, but he is athletic and intelligent.  Many compare him to Drew Brees, who also was overlooked by many for his size.  There's not much else to say about this pick, but anything could happen here.  Other names you should know are CB Justin Bethel and LB Tank Carder.







Pick 28, Round 6 - CB Justin Bethel, Presbyterian

I am putting it out there, but Bethel will be the steal of the draft for the Packers this year (I like him so much I gave him a video).  At the combine, Bethel showed he has the athleticism to be in the NFL.  His 39.5 inch vertical was best among DB's at the combine and he ranked 2nd in the broad jump.  Bethel is touted for being great in run support and a solid tackler, so at worst he is a solid special teams player.  The question about Bethel is the competition he played against, which could be said for any small school prospect.  The talent is there though.  Other possible positions here could be OL, RB, or DL.




Pick 28, Round 7 - OT Josh Oglesby, Wisconsin


Guessing a 7th round pick is nearly impossible, so I thought I'd give a little more love to a Wisconsin guy in Josh Oglesby.  Oglesby has the size, but may lack the quickness to block on the edge against NFL talent.  Chances are good Oglesby gets drafted before this, but if not, you can never have too much depth on the offensive line.  At this point, the Packers should have taken OLB/DE, CB, S, OL, and QB, so if they haven't filled one of the positions, they will here.  Otherwise, look for RB or DL here.








Well that does it for my Packers draft predictions. If they get 2 of the guys I've listed above, it will be a good draft for the Green and Yellow.  Look out for my full round 1 mock draft coming in the next couple weeks.

6 comments:

  1. Overall, I like your draft. I am in love with Nick Perry and I also like Iloka. The Packers can't really go wrong with their first pick. There are so many solid options for defensive linemen and outside linebackers this year in the first round and first half of the second.

    My only problem with your mock draft is that I think the Packers need to address their defensive line. Perry is listed as a d-end, but the packers would play him at olb. Wynn and Neal suck on the d-line; Raji needs more help. I think they could use a big body on that line also.

    Another thought: should the Packers draft a running back? They are a passing team first, but they still need to be able to run and more importantly catch passes out of the backfield. Assuming that Grant signs somewhere else, the Packers will have Starks and Alex Green coming off injury. And that Saine guy who is ok, but not great and I don't know if he is a 3rd down back. I think Green could be a stud, but he may not even be healthy. If a guy like LaMichael James drops in the second round, does Green Bay go for it?

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  2. I agree with your comments about the DL and RB positions. I listed both as positions that likely will be addressed late in the draft.

    As far as RB goes, it is a position that has changed dramatically in the last 10 years. Running back is now a position that most teams are not addressing early in the draft, and for good reason. They have a short shelf life and most teams now use a platoon of some sort. A guy like Lamar Miller would've been a top 10 pick 5 years ago, but now will likely not go in the 1st round. I like James as well, but I think the Packers are better off looking at the position late in the draft or addressing it in FA.

    Raji does need help on the D-line, but the Packers were 14th against the run last year and dead last in passing defense. Clearly their need is against the pass, especially with the direction the NFL is trending. I think Wynn-Raji-Neal will look much better with a solid pass rusher opposite Clay and an improved secondary behind them.

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  3. I completely agree with your running back comments. It is a dying position, but I still think that having a speed guy for catching balls out of the backfield is huge. A guy like Forte, McCoy, and Rice have tremendous value. The packers don't need a guy like Turner or Mendenhall, but they could use a speed guy with good pass catching abilities. Hopefully Alex Green becomes that guy. I hope they don't draft a rb in the first 3 rounds; they have other holes to fill.

    As far as the defensive line position, I kind of agree but disagree on one major thing. I agree that the defense needs help against the pass, not the run. However, the Packers were usually in the lead so their 14th ranking against the run isn't that accurate. In my opinion, they were actually a lot worse than that. I would also argue that adding more pass rushers on the D-Line would help the pass defense tremendously. Look at the Giants, their secondary wasn't that good, but their defense played great in the postseason because they could get pressure on the quarterback. Obviously having a good secondary is important, but I feel that having a great pass rush is more beneficial to pass defense than people think. Guys like Brees and Brady will pick apart good secondaries if they have time. Teams need a good pass rush to take that time away.

    I think Nick Perry would help a lot, but I still want the packers to have one more guy on the line that can take away pressure from Raji. Then Matthews, Perry(or whoever they draft), Raji, and another d-lineman could all rush the passer. If you only have Matthews and Perry rushing, the other team knows who is coming every play. If you have Matthews, Perry, Raji, and Brandon Thompson(possible 2nd round pick) the pressure could come from anywhere. Then Capers could send a variety of packages and confuse the opposing quarterback and offensive line.

    So in a nutshell, I hope the packers take Perry and Thompson in the first two rounds. That gives Capers the flexibility to send Perry, Bishop, and/or Matthews (or even Hawk, haha it's possible) on any given play while also having pressure from Raji and Thompson. That kind of flexibility will confuse the quarterback and make him rush his throws. That is what the defense needs most, in my opinion. And I also think it is way easier to get a corner or safety late in the draft than a defensive tackle.

    What do you think of that philosophy Erd? Either way, I think you and I should be GM's...

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  4. I think it all comes down to who you think is worth a 2nd round pick more. I just think we are in a much bigger need for secondary, so I would take that in round 2. I think you could rework it and go OLB/DE, DB, DL, OL if you want. But I still think our secondary needs more than our d-line.

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  5. Either way, they need help on the line, at linebacker, and in the defensive backfield. Hopefully, TT goes with a lot of defensive picks this year. Here is my mock for the Packers:

    1. Fletcher Cox, DT Mississippi State

    I wish it was Nick Perry here, but I think he will be gone for sure. Cox may be gone too, but there will be a lot of other options at the end of the first round.

    2. Ronnell Lewis, DE/OLB Oklahoma

    I would love to see Harrison Smith fall to the Packers in the second round, but I think that has about a 1% chance of happening. I also like Brandon Thompson if the Packers go with a DE/OLB in the 1st round.

    3. Janzen Jackson, S McNeese State

    I also wouldn't mind seeing Iloka here. I think he will be available in the 3rd and maybe even in the 4th. If the Packers take a safety in the 1st or 2nd, I like Travis Lewis or Tyrone Crawford here.

    4. Tony Bergstrom, OT/G Utah

    I agree that the Packers could use some depth on the offensive line, especially if they cut Clifton.

    5. David Molk, C Michigan

    This pick depends on what happens with the center position in free agency. I also like Chris Rainey a lot with this pick. If the Packers sign Wells or somebody else, this pick goes to Rainey.

    6. Justin Bethel, CB Presbyterian

    I am on the bandwagon.

    7. Chandler Harnish, QB Northern Illinois

    The Packers need to replace Flynn. I am not sure if Graham Harrell is that guy. And if he is, they still need a 3rd QB.

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  6. Odds the Houston Texans take someone other than Reggie Bush #1 overall in the draft ... 20:1. Stating clearly that predicting the draft is completely non scientifical, non predictable, and well, if you get the top 10 picks correct you need to be buying lottery tickets. But damnnnnnnnn is it fun! Quite possibly my favorite sports event of the year. Everyone has an opinion, even when its wrong. I will forever hang my hat on saying that the Packers pick of Brian Brohm will turn into one of the best in franchise history, producing the future franchise QB. (I foresaw the pick of Brohm motivating Matt Flynn to work harder, eventually driving his inner motivation to push himself and win the backup role. From there, I clearly saw Rodgers turning into an MVP, and Flynn learning from him, getting cut, and subsequently signed to a multi-million dollar deal.) Boom. The Packers drafting Brian Brohm lead to a franchise quarterback. I love the draft!

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