Well last night we saw that anything can happen in the tournament. At halftime, people were penciling Iona in to upset Marquette, now they have the eraser out once again. Good thing the bracket doesn't count the play-in games, I'd be 0-2. I'll take Vermont and Cal tonight, so hopefully I can split the games. This is my final preview, so I hope you've enjoyed them. Be sure to check out the other regions: South, East, and West. No tips this time, let's get right to the games.
1 North Carolina vs 16 Lamar/Vermont
North Carolina wins 10 of 10
Why North Carolina Will Win. . .
North Carolina came into the season with expectations of winning a national title. They have done nothing so far to make you expect anything less. In their regular season finale against rival Duke, the Tar Heels showed why they were the preseason #1 ranked team. North Carolina is the top rebounding team in the country and the top scoring team in the field of 64. The biggest concern is John Henson's health entering the tournament. If he's good to go, Barnes, Zeller and crew will be favorites to get to the Final Four.
8 Creighton vs 9 Alabama
Creighton wins 5 of 10
Why Creighton Will Win. . .
Creighton is another one of those teams many people think are underseeded. The Bluejays were 28-5 on the season, but didn't play anyone ranked. There is one reason they can win a game in the NCAA tournament, Doug McDermott. McDermott is the top scorer in the tournament at over 23 points per game and is one of the best three-point shooters at 49%. He also adds 8 boards per game and shoots a staggering 61% from the floor. McDermott can carry this team to a victory like many scorers have in the past, but an off night or foul trouble could mean an early exit for the Blue Jays.
Why Alabama Will Win. . .
There really isn't anything spectacular about the Crimson Tide offense, but they are one of the best defensive teams in the country. They don't shoot well, but they also prevent their opponent's from hitting a lot of shots. This team failed to meet the expectations it had early in the season, but a win or two in the tournament could go a long way. This team has the athletes, they just never got everything together this year.
5 Temple vs 12 California/USF
California wins 5 of 10
Why Temple Will Win. . .
The A-10 was solid this year, and Temple was the regular season champion. The Owls come into the tournament having won 13 of their last 15 and have wins against Duke, Saint Louis and Xavier. Offensively, Temple is efficient. Ramone Moore and Khalif Wyatt both average over 17 points per game. Temple is littered with upperclassmen and that experience is valuable come tourney time. This team has Sweet 16 potential.
Why California Will Win. . .
I have California winning the play-in game for one reason, they get assists and high percentage shots. Had California won the Pac-12 tournament, they would've have been the only team to make the tournament. Instead, Colorado got the automatic bid and California is in as an at-large. Balanced scoring and a high shooting percentage can get this team through to the Sweet 16.
4 Michigan vs 13 Ohio
Michigan wins 8 of 10
Why Michigan Will Win. . .
Michigan had a solid season in the Big Ten. They got hot in games where they looked unbeatable, but then they went cold and look very beatable. The Wolverines rely on their outside shooting for offensive spurts. Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. are solid scoring threats, but the team's inability to get to the line could hurt them. This team is talented enough to overcome some scoring droughts, but a Sweet 16 may be the best case scenario for a streaky team.
Why Ohio Will Win. . .
Ohio is over-matched against Michigan. The Bobcats got into the tournament by winning the Mid-American tournament. D.J. Cooper is a solid scorer and they have balanced scoring all around, but they aren't particularly efficient on offense. If this team were to beat Michigan, it would truly be an upset.
6 San Diego State vs 11 NC State
NC State wins 6 of 10
Why San Diego State Will Win. . .
It's difficult to expect much from the Aztecs in a rebuilding year of sorts from their Sweet 16 team from last year. This team lacks an interior defensive presence and has more turnovers than assists. They do have a couple scorers in Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley who take nearly 44% of the team's shots. Although this team is the higher seed, they may be the underdog in the round of 64.
Why NC State Will Win. . .
NC State got into the tournament based primarily on the strength of their schedule. They play in ACC with perennial tournament teams. Despite having twelve losses on the season, eight of those came against ranked teams. After a four game losing streak, NC State has played well in their last five, nearly knocking off North Carolina in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack is solid statistically, having five players averaging in double-digits. The balanced scoring and team play could propel this team into the round of 32.
3 Georgetown vs 14 Belmont
Georgetown wins 9 of 10
Why Georgetown Will Win. . .
Georgetown is on upset alert and for good reason. The Hoyas have been knocked out in the round of 64 in the past two years. This is your typical Georgetown team, anchored by a big man that can do it all. If you didn't see him in the Big East tournament, senior Henry Sims is playing his best basketball. Sims can rebound, score, and pass the ball as well as any big man in the country. This is another talented Georgetown team that has Sweet 16 potential, but needs to focus on their first round matchup.
Why Belmont Will Win. . .
Belmont comes in having won 14 straight games, so momentum is on their side. They don't have any significant wins on the schedule, but they did lose to Duke by only one point in the first game of the season. This team is not as talented as Georgetown, but they can score and distribute the ball well. If the Bruins can pull off the upset against Georgetown, they could be headed to the Sweet 16.
7 Saint Mary's vs 10 Purdue
Purdue wins 5 of 10
Why Saint Mary's Will Win. . .
The Gaels finally overcame Gonzaga to take the West Coast Conference title. Now they have their eyes set on a Sweet 16. The team's top scorer, Matthew Dellavedova, is able to create his own shot and get to the rim, but is also an excellent passer. Along with double-double machine Rob Jones, this team is talented enough to make a run, but they will need solid defensive play to advance.
Why Purdue Will Win. . .
This could be the last time we see Robbie Hummel in a Purdue uniform. Hummel's career has been unfortunately riddled with injuries that kept him off legitimate Final Four teams. This year Hummel is looking to finally lead his team in the tournament. The Boilermakers win games through offensive and defensive efficiency. Their ability to play defense and take care of the ball can take this team into a Sweet 16.
2 Kansas vs 15 Detroit
Kansas wins 10 of 10
Why Kansas Will Win. . .
When you look at Kansas, you see a team full of athletes. Thomas Robinson is a man among boys, and there aren't many teams that can contain him. However, to make a Final Four run, Tyshawn Taylor will have to be on the top of his game. Withey gives the Jayhawks another interior presence and is a premier shot blocker. This team can go as far as they want as long as they play well together.
My Midwest Region Bracket
Sweet 16: North Carolina, California, Georgetown, Kansas
Elite 8: North Carolina, Kansas
Upsets: Cal over Temple and Michigan, NC State over SDSU, Purdue over St. Mary's, Kansas over UNC
50-50 Picks: Creighton over Alabama, California over Temple, Purdue over St. Mary's
Again I have the #1 and #2 seed in the Elite 8, but I have Kansas advancing to the Final Four. I have California winning a couple games, but that may change depending on how they look tonight. In my 50-50 games, I am taking Creighton because of the McDermott and Purdue because of their efficiency. Again, my California pick could change.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
NCAA Tournament - West Region Preview
Two down, two to go. I've already previewed the South and East regions, and now we move down to the West. As always, here's a couple tips for filling out your bracket:
- This is college, coaches make a difference. When it comes to picking teams in the tournament, don't overlook how good their coach is. Coaches like Tom Izzo are at their best come March.
- Make a pick and stick with it. Too often people will waffle on a pick and then switch it because they saw a statistic or article about some team. Usually you'll end up regretting it.
The tournament is nearly underway, with First Four games starting tonight. In the small chance you care, I'll pick Mississippi Valley State and Iona to win tonight and get into the field of 64. Let's get going to the teams that have byes tonight.
1 Michigan State vs 16 LIU Brooklyn
Michigan State wins 10 of 10
Why Michigan State Will Win. . .
Tom Izzo knows how to get it done. Michigan State has one of the best coaches come March and a Final Four has become expected every year, regardless of seed for the Spartans. This year is no different, considering the Spartans weren't ranked in the preseason polls. Draymond Green does it all, averaging 16 points, 10 rebounds and over 3 assists per game. Green can play inside and outside, which makes it difficult for teams to match up with him. Along with Green, the Spartans have several players who can score on any given night and have players who can come in and hit the three when needed. This team is well coached and poised to make a Final Four run.
8 Memphis vs 9 Saint Loius
Memphis wins 5 of 10
Why Memphis Will Win. . .
Memphis enters the tournament having won 11 of their last 12 games. Leading the scoring is sophomore Will Barton, but they have plenty of legitimate scorers. As a team, they shoot over 49% from the floor, which puts them near the top of the country. They also distribute the ball well, so the Tigers will definitely be a tough out of the tournament. They have an interesting matchup with Saint Louis in the opening round, where many believe both teams were vastly underseeded.
Why Saint Louis Will Win. . .
If you are looking for a coach that has been there and done that, look no further than the Billikens' Rick Majerus. In the mid-to-late '90s, Majerus had Utah among the best programs in college basketball. He did everything be win it all. Majerus now has the Billikens in the NCAA tournament ready to make an impact. I personally find their mascot to be one of the coolest looking in the tournament, but their logo sort of makes him look like the Grinch. Can the Billikens do their best Grinch impression and steal some tournament wins? They don't have the athletes that Memphis or Michigan State have, but Majerus will have this team ready against any team.
5 New Mexico vs 12 Long Beach State
New Mexico wins 7 of 10
Why New Mexico Will Win. . .
If you like San Diego State or UNLV, you should like New Mexico, since they took 2 out of 3 from both those teams this year. The Mountain West champions have senior Drew Gordon averaging a double-double. The Lobos also get 12 and 11 points per game from Kendall Williams and Tony Snell respectively. This team is deep and are near the top of the country in assists per game, but what will win them games in the tournament is their defense. New Mexico is a dangerous #6 seed who has a good chance of making it into the Sweet 16.
Why Long Beach State Will Win. . .
Not many teams can score with the 49ers. They have five players averaging over 9 points per game, with Casper Ware leading them with over 17 per game. Long Beach State played a very tough non-conference schedule. Kansas, North Carolina, Kansas State, Louisville, Xavier, and Creighton all found themselves on the 49ers schedule. While the only win came over Xavier, Long Beach State played well against some of the best teams in the country. That experience and their ability to score could be enough for them to make a cinderella run into the Sweet 16 or possibly beyond.
4 Louisville vs 13 Davidson
Louisville wins 8 of 10
Why Louisville Will Win. . .
The Cardinals are playing some of their best basketball entering the tournament. A lot of that has to do with the play of Peyton Siva. If you haven't seen him play, he is lightning quick and can finish at the basket. Louisville is led in scoring by senior Kyle Kuric, but has six players averaging at least 9 points per game. This is also a very good rebounding team. The trend of good coaches continues with Rick Pitino, who has had success everywhere he's been. Expect this team to do no different as it advances to the Sweet 16.
Why Davidson Will Win. . .
Well they don't have Stephen Curry, but the Wildcats can still score at will. They have five players averaging double digits and are also one of the best rebounding teams in the country. It may just be a year too early for Davidson though. They don't have a senior logging significant minutes, so this year will be about getting experience. However, that does not mean that this team does not have what it takes to win a game in the tournament. They definitely have the talent to get to a Sweet 16, but they are lacking the experience. I'm saying it now though, watch out for them next year.
6 Murray State vs 11 Colorado State
Murray State wins 9 of 10
Why Murray State Will Win. . .
It's hard to believe a team that went 30-1 is a #6 seed in the tournament. It goes to say that this team is much better than their seeding. If you haven't seen him play, Isaiah Canaan is one of the best scorers in the country. He averages over 19 points per game and gets Dick Vitale more excited than a bottle a Viagra. Canaan alone can carry this team through the tournament, but the Racers also have other players who can score. They shoot over 40% from beyond the arc as a team, so they could surprise anyone who looks at them like any other #6 seed.
Why Colorado State Will Win. . .
It's actually very surprising to see Colorado State in the tournament, especially as a #11 seed. This team was simply over matched against teams in the Mountain West conference and now they are facing the top teams in the country. They are extremely undersized and don't rebound very well, although they do shoot over 40% from the three point line. If the Rams are going to win a game in the tournament, they will need to do by getting hot from beyond the arc.
3 Marquette vs 14 BYU/Iona
Marquette wins 9 of 10
Why Marquette Will Win. . .
The Golden Eagles are one team you can never count out. They have come back from double-digit second half deficits on multiple occasions. They do this by scoring and playing stifling defense. The Big East player of the year Jae Crowder is a mismatch for anyone who guards him. Darius Johnson-Odom is a premier scorer who can score from anywhere on the floor. This team will get after you and aren't afraid to take it to the rim. Marquette can beat themselves with turnovers at times, but if they take care of the ball this is a Final Four team.
Why BYU/Iona Will Win. . .
As I said above, I believe Iona is going to win the play-in game and get to this spot. If they do, they could give Marquette a tough game. Mike Glover can score on the inside with the best of them. The Gaels could be this year's VCU, but they have a tough path to get to a Sweet 16.
7 Florida vs 10 Virginia
Florida wins 6 of 10
Why Florida Will Win. . .
Florida was a top-10 team in the preseason rankings, so this is a team that is underseeded in the tournament. They have five players who score in double digits and all of them aren't to get in and get a rebound. The front-runner for the Gators is Kenny Boynton, a junior guard who is terrific from beyond the arc. This is one of the most efficient offenses in the country and they take care of the ball. They started to get into their stride in the SEC tournament, so this could be a team to watch in the Sweet 16.
Why Virginia Will Win. . .
Virginia's defense is well-chronicled. Tony Bennett has this team in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2007. They started their season winning 14 of 15, but since have gone just 8-8. Their defense keeps them in games though, as seven of their nine losses were by three points or less. They do have an interior scorer in Mike Scott who can get it going at any time. If this team can get back on track, their defense could take them into a Sweet 16.
2 Missouri vs Norfolk State
Missouri wins 10 of 10
Why Missouri Will Win. . .
You shouldn't have to make much of an argument to have the Tigers in your Final Four. Missouri went 30-4 and won their conference tournament, showing consistency the whole season. They have arguably the best guard play in the country and Kim English is one of the best shooters in the country. This team will cruise past Norfolk State, but do have some tough matchups on their road to the Final Four.
My West Region Bracket
Sweet 16: Michigan State, Louisville, Marquette, Missouri Florida
Elite 8: Michican State, Marquette
Upsets: Florida over Missouri
50-50 Picks: Memphis over Saint Louis
It's mostly chalk in this region. The toughest game to pick is Memphis and Saint Louis, who are good teams. I just have some feeling that Missouri will fall early, but I couldn't pull the trigger on taking Florida over them, although I wanted to. EDIT: I decided to take Florida over Missouri. This could be my make or break pick of the tourney. Instead, I took Marquette in what would be an amazing game. When all is said and done, I am taking Izzo and Spartans to move on to the Final Four.
NCAA Tournament - East Region Preview
I move over to the East Region for my next tournament preview. In case you missed it, I already previewed the South Region. Before I get started, here's another couple tips for filling out your bracket:
- A premier scorer should never be overlooked. We have seen in the past that one player can carry a team. We had Kemba Walker last year and names like Jimmer Fredette, Stephen Curry, and Carmelo Anthony in recent history.
- Don't overlook recent tournament history. Take Syracuse for example. In the past 5 years, the Orange have been no worse than a #5 seed, but they have only reached the Sweet Sixteen twice in that span.
Again, below each matchup I'm giving you what I believe would be the result of a ten game series between the 2 teams. I'm also automatically advancing the #1 and #2 seeds. Here we go:
1 Syracuse vs 16 UNC Asheville
Syracuse wins 10 of 10
Why Syracuse Will Win. . .
Syracuse has only two losses on the season and is one of the deepest teams in the country. Still, most experts don't have the Orange in their Final Four and I am no different. The Orange have a hall of fame coach and play their signature zone which gives some teams problems. What they don't have is that premier scorer that can carry them in the second half of a game. They are also susceptible on the boards. If they run into a team that can hit 3's against their zone they could fall early. Still, it would be hard to not see Syracuse at least move on to the Sweet 16.
8 Kansas State vs 9 Southern Miss
Kansas State wins 8 of 10
Why Kansas State Will Win. . .
If there is one team in the country that Missouri doesn't want to play, it's Kansas State. The Wildcats beat Missouri twice this season and also notched wins against Baylor, Alabama, and Texas. Kansas State has shown it can compete against any team out there. They have the ability to get to the rim and clean up the boards. Jamar Samuels and Rodney McGruder could take this squad into the Sweet 16.
Why Southern Miss Will Win. . .
There isn't anything spectacular about Southern Miss. They haven't beaten or even played a ranked team all season, and that lack of experience against top teams could hurt them in the tournament. The Golden Eagles do have some solid depth and can get scoring from several different players. They also rebound well and take care of the ball, so they could give Kansas State a tough game. A Sweet 16 is unlikely, but in the NCAA tournament, you never know.
5 Vanderbilt vs 12 Harvard
Vanderbilt wins 9 of 10
Why Vanderbilt Will Win. . .
The Commodores are the trendy pick in the East region. They are coming off a big win over #1 Kentucky and an SEC tournament title. John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor can score with the best of them and Festus Ezeli is a force in the interior. However, their win against Kentucky came in their 3rd attempt and they are only 3-6 against ranked teams. This team has lofty Final Four expectations that will be difficult to live up to, but if they can build off of their momentum from the SEC tournament, they have the talent to go far.
Why Harvard Will Win. . .
Harvard basketball is at it's pinnacle right now. They are in the NCAA tournament for only the second time, the other being back in 1946. They also are the Alma mater of Jeremy Lin, who been all the hype in the sports world over the last few months. The Crimson are probably the smartest team in the tournament as well. All that being said, Harvard doesn't match up athletically with a Vanderbilt team. It would take a near perfect game to win their first tournament game ever, but they did beat Florida State early in the season. If you are looking for a 12-5 upset, I'd probably avoid this one, but that's also what they said about Lin.
4 Wisconsin vs 13 Montana
Wisconsin wins 9 of 10
Why Wisconsin Will Win. . .
It isn't always pretty to watch and it usually doesn't look spectacular in the box score, but the Badgers know how to win. The formula for the Badgers is simple, play defense and take care of the ball. This is evident as the Badgers have the best scoring defense in the country, are 8th in field goal percentage defense and are second in turnovers with less than 9 per game. The Badgers are led by senior guard Jordan Taylor, who has the ability to hit big shots and can carry this team in close games. The Badgers also shoot free throws very well and can get hot from beyond the arc. The Badgers are usually in the upset talk, but this is Wisconsin's 15th straight tournament appearance and they have won at least one game in each of the last 5 years. Expect the Badgers to make a run and have a possible match up with Ohio State in the Elite 8.
Why Montana Will Win. . .
Montana enters the tournament having won 14 straight and 20 of their last 21 games. The Grizzlies get great production from Will Cherry (16 PPG) and have five players averaging 9+ PPG. Their strength, however, is defense. They are solid in both scoring defense and field goal percentage defense. This team would throw most teams off their game, but may play right into Wisconsin's style. Their lack of depth is a concern as well, so even though some people have labeled Montana as a possible upset team, it will be difficult for the Grizzlies to get past Wisconsin.
6 Cincinnati vs 11 Texas
Texas wins 5 of 10
Why Cincinnati Will Win. . .
Cincinnati has had some perplexing losses this season and has also had some great wins, including a win over #2 Syracuse in the Big East tournament. The Bearcats are a physical squad who have a presence in Yancy Gates, who nearly averages a double-double. In all, the Bearcats have four starters who score in double digits and they all rebound well. Cincinnati's season could have fell apart following the brawl (and 20 point loss) against Xavier, but the team rebounded nicely and played well down the stretch. They are a tough out and could find themselves in the Sweet 16.
Why Texas Will Win. . .
J'Covan Brown knows how to score. Brown averages over 20 points per game and is a threat to put up 30 on any given night. Although the Longhorns have only won 20 games, they played the top teams in the Big 12 closely. Texas does rebound well and can get scoring from other sources, but they likely will go as Brown goes. Texas may be going home early, but if Brown gets hot, he could easily carry Texas into a Sweet 16.
3 Florida State vs Saint Bonaventure
Florida State wins 9 of 10
Why Florida State Will Win. . .
Florida State did something this year that no team has done in 15 years, they beat both Duke and North Carolina twice in the same season. They also come into the tournament with momentum; their last two wins are on back-to-back nights against those aforementioned teams. The Seminoles do this with defense, ranking 5th in field goal percentage defense. They also have a knack for knocking down the big three. If Deividas Dulkys can play like he did in their 33 point beat-down of North Carolina and Michael Snaer is on, this team could find itself in the Final Four.
Why Saint Bonaventure Will Win. . .
The Bonnies played themselves into the tournament by knocking off Xavier in the A-10 championship. They will need solid play from 6'9" senior Andrew Nicholson, who averages 18 points and 8 rebounds per game, but it will take a flawless game for them to get past Florida State in the round of 64. However, Saint Bonaventure burst some bubbles when it won the A-10 tournament, so they are playing with nothing to lose, which is always dangerous.
7 Gonzaga vs 10 West Virginia
West Viriginia wins 6 of 10
Why Gonzaga Will Win. . .
It was way back in 1999 when Gonzaga became everyone's favorite cinderella team. Gonzaga is now a mainstay in March, but that hasn't resulted in much success once they get there. They advanced to the Sweet 16 in three straight years from 1999-2001, but have only made it there twice since then. This Gonzaga team is solid, but not as good as some of their past teams. They do have four players averaging double digits and rebound well. It used to be the popular thing to pick Gonzaga, but this year you may want to look elsewhere for a cinderella. But then again, they have always done their best as the underdog.
Why West Virginia Will Win. . .
West Virginia has the Big East's top scorer in senior forward Kevin Jones. Jones also averages 11 boards and gets a block per game. The team as a whole rebounds well and they get added scoring from Darryl Bryant and Deniz Kilicli. There is no doubt about it though, this is Jones' team. The Mountaineers have been struggling as of late however, having lost 8 of their last 12 games. If West Virginia is going to win, it will need to be at the hands of Kevin Jones.
2 Ohio State vs 15 Loyola (MD)
Ohio State wins 10 of 10
Why Ohio State Will Win. . .
In a region full of elite scorers, the best player has to be Jared Sullinger. Sullinger is nearly unstoppable down low and is simply a beast. Along with Sullinger's 17 points per game, the Buckeyes get another 30 points per game from Deshaun Thomas and William Buford. With Aaron Craft spreading the ball around effectively, this team is hard to contain. It's surprising to see seven losses on their record, but six of those came against top-20 teams and the loss against Kansas came without Sullinger. This team is poised to make a Final Four and likely would've been a #1 seed had won the Big Ten final against Michigan State.
My East Region Bracket
Sweet 16: Syracuse, Wisconsin, Florida State, Ohio State
Elite 8: Wisconsin, Ohio State
Upsets: Texas over Cincinnati, West Virginia over Gonzaga, Wisconsin over Syracuse
50-50 Picks: Texas over Cincinnati
I believe the East Region is the best from top to bottom. I have Ohio State coming out of this region, and the only team I see possibly beating them is Wisconsin, since they did so earlier this year. Again, I don't have many upsets early besides Texas and West Virginia winning in the round of 64, but I do have Wisconsin knocking off Syracuse. I could really go either way with the Texas-Cincinnati game, but I took Texas because I believe the Big 12 is better at the top than the Big East is this year.
Monday, March 12, 2012
NCAA Tournament - South Region Preview
It's March Madness time again and everyone is busy filling out there bracket. Whether you are going chalk or trying to pick the next Cinderella team, you can't go wrong. There really is a lot of luck in picking a bracket, since almost any team can win on any given day. Here are a few tips before we get started:
I'm starting with the South region where Kentucky is the favorite. I automatically advance all #1 and #2 seeds, so you won't get any insight on #15 and #16 seeds. Remember, filling out a bracket is supposed to be fun, so don't worry to go outside the popular picks. Stay tuned for the rest of the regions which will be coming over the next couple days.
1 Kentucky vs 16 Mississippi Valley State/Western Kentucky
Kentucky wins 10 of 10
Why Kentucky Will Win. . .
Kentucky is the best team in the country. Anthony Davis is the best player in the country. John Calipari continually has top NBA talent on his team and this year is no different with Doron Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Terrence Jones, Darius Miller and Marquis Teague. A Final Four appearance is almost a certainty with this squad.
8 Iowa State vs 9 Connecticut
Iowa State wins 5 of 10
Why Iowa State Will Win. . .
Royce White is a talented 6'8" sophomore who can score from anywhere on the floor. He averages 13 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists and a steal per game, making him an all-around talent which will be hard to contain. Iowa State also shoots the three very well, especially senior guard Scott Christopherson who hits 45% from beyond the arc. White is talented enough to carry the team, but if they shoot well they can compete with anyone, as we saw in Big 12 play where they notched wins against Kansas and Baylor and played Missouri tough twice.
Why Connecticut Will Win. . .
Connecticut is the defending national champions and were #4 in the preseason rankings, but a tough Big East schedule and bad play resulted in a sub-.500 conference record. Nonetheless, Connecticut still is one of the more talented squads in the tourney. Jeremy Lamb, Shabazz Napier, and Alex Oriakhi all return from last year's championship team, and they add talented freshmen Ryan Boatright and Andre Drummond. If this team plays smart, they can make a run, but there is a reason they were 8-10 in the Big East this year.
5 Wichita State vs 12 VCU
Wichita State wins 7 of 10
Why Wichita State Will Win. . .
The Shockers are an experienced team, with five seniors getting significant minutes. Wichita State can play inside and outside. They have a 7-footer in Garrett Stutz and one the nation's best 3-point shooters (50%) in Joe Ragland, both of which are seniors. The Shockers also are smart with the ball, averaging only 12 turnovers per game and near the top in assist-to-turnover ratio. A smart, experienced club can usually do damage in the tournament and Wichita State is no different.
Why VCU Will Win. . .
Last year's cinderella team is dancing again. While they aren't as talented as last season, they play like a team that believes they are. They get after their opponents on defense, leading the nation in steals per game. The Rams average nearly as many steals as turnovers per game, so in order to beat them you must value each possession. Their downfall may be poor shooting from the perimeter and foul line, but if they can get points in transition, they could definitely be a Sweet 16 team.
4 Indiana vs 13 New Mexico State
Indiana wins 8 of 10
Why Indiana Will Win. . .
Indiana has competed against and beaten some of the nations best teams; Kentucky, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan all fell to the Hoosiers. There is one thing those wins have in common though, they were all at home. Indiana struggles away from their home court, going just 8-8 away from Assembly Hall. They also enter the tournament without senior guard Verdell Jones III, whose leadership was huge for Tom Crean's squad. With that being said, they still have Cody Zeller, a big man who can get up and down the floor and score against anyone in the post. They also have a point guard in Jordan Hulls who takes care of the ball and a playmaker in Christian Watford, who if he gets hot, can take Indiana into a Sweet 16.
Why New Mexico State Will Win. . .
The Aggies are lead by double-double machine Wendell McKines, who averages nearly 19 points and 11 rebounds per game. New Mexico State can score with anyone and rebounds very well, but they have not played a ranked team all season, so it will be interesting to see how they match up with the best teams in the country. What may hurt the Aggies is their inability to knock down the three (just under 33% on the season). If they can get after the boards and can get points in the paint, the Aggies could pull off the upset.
6 UNLV vs 11 Colorado
UNLV wins 9 of 10
Why UNLV Will Win. . .
The Runnin' Rebels are one of the best teams in the country in assists per game. In addition to distributing the rock, they also rebound and score very well. At the center of this is Mike Moser, UNLV's talented sophomore forward. Moser averages a double-double in points and rebounds and also adds 2 assists, 2 steals and a block per game. Also, in case anyone forgot, UNLV beat #1 North Carolina back in November by 10. This team could have an Elite 8 run in them.
Why Colorado Will Win. . .
Colorado got into the NCAA tournament by winning the Pac-12 tournament. There is a lot to be said about the Pac-12 when their regular season champion is going to be playing in the NIT. They did take 2 out of 3 against California, their only fellow Pac-12 team in the tournament. The Buffaloes do have momentum coming into the tournament and have four players averaging double-digits this season. Even if Colorado takes care of the ball, Andre Roberson will have to play big for Colarado to avoid an early exit.
3 Baylor vs 14 South Dakota State
Baylor wins 9 of 10
Why Baylor Will Win. . .
Baylor did not lose a game until January 16th and all 7 losses this season have come against tournament teams. Baylor has the length and talent to be a Final Four contender, but they have been inconsistent down the stretch. Perry Jones III is one of the best players in the country and can overpower most defenders. Quincy Acy and Quincy Miller are also mismatches for most teams. Baylor is going to be more athletic than nearly every team they play, so as long as they show up on the big stage, you likely will see them highlighted on a lot of brackets. You likely will also see their highlighter jerseys show up in the Elite 8.
Why South Dakota State Will Win. . .
If you are picking a bracket based on mascots, you might have the Jackrabbits in your Final Four, but even those that aren't are looking at them giving Baylor a run. Most of the attention is on 6'4" guard Nate Wolters, who is a top-10 scorer in the nation. Wolters makes most of his living going to the line, averaging over seven free throws per game. However, Wolters shoots a dismal 24% from beyond the arc, while the rest of the team shoots almost 43%. It will be tough for Wolters to score inside against a lengthy Baylor team, so if he starts to settle for the outside shot, they won't have a chance.
7 Notre Dame vs 10 Xavier
Notre Dame wins 7 of 10
Why Notre Dame Will Win. . .
This game won't be exciting to watch unless you are a Notre Dame fan. The Fighting Irish limit possessions and slow the game down, forcing their opponents to beat them in the half court. Despite losing Tim Abromaitis early in the year to an ACL injury, Notre Dame managed to go 13-5 in the Big East. Their formula for success is limiting turnovers and getting good shots. As long as they stick to their game, they will be a tough out early in the tournament.
Why Xavier Will Win. . .
Even if you follow college basketball, they biggest story about Xavier is their brawl with Cincinnati earlier in the season. After winning that game by 23 points to go to 8-0 on the season, Xavier lost 5 of their next 6 and haven't been the same team since. Tu Holloway is a solid player who can go off at any time and Xavier has 10 players averaging double-digit minutes. Xavier has a solid scorer and depth, which are two things you need in the NCAA tournament. They hadn't beaten a good team since Cincinnati until they beat Saint Louis in the A-10 tournament, but maybe the Musketeers are getting it all together at the right time.
2 Duke vs 15 Lehigh
Duke wins 10 of 10
Why Duke Will Win. . .
You either love them or hate them, but you can't argue that Duke is one of the best programs in the country. Coach K is arguably the best coach out there, which is always something to keep in mind. That being said, Duke hasn't fared well in recent years. Mason and Miles Plumlee provide them with a present down low, Austin Rivers isn't afraid to take the big shot, and Seth Curry can score as well. They have a Final Four caliber team, but the route there isn't easy for the Blue Devils.
My South Region Bracket
Sweet 16: Kentucky, Wichita State, Baylor, Duke
Elite 8: Kentucky, Baylor
Upsets: Wichita State over Indiana, Baylor over Duke
50-50 Picks: Iowa State over Connecticut
I pretty much have gone chalk in the South region. I have Kentucky advancing to the Final Four. My only real upsets are Wichita St over Indiana to advance to the Sweet 16 and Baylor over Duke to get into the Elite 8. I also am taking Iowa State over Connecticut, which probably puts me in the minority.
- Don't always listen to the "experts". They likely know more about college basketball than you do, but when they give you an upset pick to watch, they themselves aren't probably going to pick them. No one wants to hear them all say they are going chalk, so keep that in mind.
- Don't pick too many upsets. Last year was a crazy tournament, but there were still only 7 upsets in the round of 64, which is actually below the average of 8.
- There is luck involved, but don't overlook the odds. I always look at how teams would do in a ten game series. You'll see below how I think each team would do in a ten game series.
- Always pick 1, 2 and 3 seeds in their first round games. The points you earn by picking the upset is usually the same you earn for picking the top seed. A 14, 15, or 16 seed is likely not going to advance, so make the smart pick. No one cares if you finally picked the crazy upset after trying for 5 years.
- When in doubt, go chalk.
- Have fun, it only comes around once a year.
I'm starting with the South region where Kentucky is the favorite. I automatically advance all #1 and #2 seeds, so you won't get any insight on #15 and #16 seeds. Remember, filling out a bracket is supposed to be fun, so don't worry to go outside the popular picks. Stay tuned for the rest of the regions which will be coming over the next couple days.
1 Kentucky vs 16 Mississippi Valley State/Western Kentucky
Kentucky wins 10 of 10
Why Kentucky Will Win. . .
Kentucky is the best team in the country. Anthony Davis is the best player in the country. John Calipari continually has top NBA talent on his team and this year is no different with Doron Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Terrence Jones, Darius Miller and Marquis Teague. A Final Four appearance is almost a certainty with this squad.
8 Iowa State vs 9 Connecticut
Iowa State wins 5 of 10
Why Iowa State Will Win. . .
Royce White is a talented 6'8" sophomore who can score from anywhere on the floor. He averages 13 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists and a steal per game, making him an all-around talent which will be hard to contain. Iowa State also shoots the three very well, especially senior guard Scott Christopherson who hits 45% from beyond the arc. White is talented enough to carry the team, but if they shoot well they can compete with anyone, as we saw in Big 12 play where they notched wins against Kansas and Baylor and played Missouri tough twice.
Why Connecticut Will Win. . .
Connecticut is the defending national champions and were #4 in the preseason rankings, but a tough Big East schedule and bad play resulted in a sub-.500 conference record. Nonetheless, Connecticut still is one of the more talented squads in the tourney. Jeremy Lamb, Shabazz Napier, and Alex Oriakhi all return from last year's championship team, and they add talented freshmen Ryan Boatright and Andre Drummond. If this team plays smart, they can make a run, but there is a reason they were 8-10 in the Big East this year.
5 Wichita State vs 12 VCU
Wichita State wins 7 of 10
Why Wichita State Will Win. . .
The Shockers are an experienced team, with five seniors getting significant minutes. Wichita State can play inside and outside. They have a 7-footer in Garrett Stutz and one the nation's best 3-point shooters (50%) in Joe Ragland, both of which are seniors. The Shockers also are smart with the ball, averaging only 12 turnovers per game and near the top in assist-to-turnover ratio. A smart, experienced club can usually do damage in the tournament and Wichita State is no different.
Why VCU Will Win. . .
Last year's cinderella team is dancing again. While they aren't as talented as last season, they play like a team that believes they are. They get after their opponents on defense, leading the nation in steals per game. The Rams average nearly as many steals as turnovers per game, so in order to beat them you must value each possession. Their downfall may be poor shooting from the perimeter and foul line, but if they can get points in transition, they could definitely be a Sweet 16 team.
4 Indiana vs 13 New Mexico State
Indiana wins 8 of 10
Why Indiana Will Win. . .
Indiana has competed against and beaten some of the nations best teams; Kentucky, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan all fell to the Hoosiers. There is one thing those wins have in common though, they were all at home. Indiana struggles away from their home court, going just 8-8 away from Assembly Hall. They also enter the tournament without senior guard Verdell Jones III, whose leadership was huge for Tom Crean's squad. With that being said, they still have Cody Zeller, a big man who can get up and down the floor and score against anyone in the post. They also have a point guard in Jordan Hulls who takes care of the ball and a playmaker in Christian Watford, who if he gets hot, can take Indiana into a Sweet 16.
Why New Mexico State Will Win. . .
The Aggies are lead by double-double machine Wendell McKines, who averages nearly 19 points and 11 rebounds per game. New Mexico State can score with anyone and rebounds very well, but they have not played a ranked team all season, so it will be interesting to see how they match up with the best teams in the country. What may hurt the Aggies is their inability to knock down the three (just under 33% on the season). If they can get after the boards and can get points in the paint, the Aggies could pull off the upset.
6 UNLV vs 11 Colorado
UNLV wins 9 of 10
Why UNLV Will Win. . .
The Runnin' Rebels are one of the best teams in the country in assists per game. In addition to distributing the rock, they also rebound and score very well. At the center of this is Mike Moser, UNLV's talented sophomore forward. Moser averages a double-double in points and rebounds and also adds 2 assists, 2 steals and a block per game. Also, in case anyone forgot, UNLV beat #1 North Carolina back in November by 10. This team could have an Elite 8 run in them.
Why Colorado Will Win. . .
Colorado got into the NCAA tournament by winning the Pac-12 tournament. There is a lot to be said about the Pac-12 when their regular season champion is going to be playing in the NIT. They did take 2 out of 3 against California, their only fellow Pac-12 team in the tournament. The Buffaloes do have momentum coming into the tournament and have four players averaging double-digits this season. Even if Colorado takes care of the ball, Andre Roberson will have to play big for Colarado to avoid an early exit.
3 Baylor vs 14 South Dakota State
Baylor wins 9 of 10
Why Baylor Will Win. . .
Baylor did not lose a game until January 16th and all 7 losses this season have come against tournament teams. Baylor has the length and talent to be a Final Four contender, but they have been inconsistent down the stretch. Perry Jones III is one of the best players in the country and can overpower most defenders. Quincy Acy and Quincy Miller are also mismatches for most teams. Baylor is going to be more athletic than nearly every team they play, so as long as they show up on the big stage, you likely will see them highlighted on a lot of brackets. You likely will also see their highlighter jerseys show up in the Elite 8.
Why South Dakota State Will Win. . .
If you are picking a bracket based on mascots, you might have the Jackrabbits in your Final Four, but even those that aren't are looking at them giving Baylor a run. Most of the attention is on 6'4" guard Nate Wolters, who is a top-10 scorer in the nation. Wolters makes most of his living going to the line, averaging over seven free throws per game. However, Wolters shoots a dismal 24% from beyond the arc, while the rest of the team shoots almost 43%. It will be tough for Wolters to score inside against a lengthy Baylor team, so if he starts to settle for the outside shot, they won't have a chance.
7 Notre Dame vs 10 Xavier
Notre Dame wins 7 of 10
Why Notre Dame Will Win. . .
This game won't be exciting to watch unless you are a Notre Dame fan. The Fighting Irish limit possessions and slow the game down, forcing their opponents to beat them in the half court. Despite losing Tim Abromaitis early in the year to an ACL injury, Notre Dame managed to go 13-5 in the Big East. Their formula for success is limiting turnovers and getting good shots. As long as they stick to their game, they will be a tough out early in the tournament.
Why Xavier Will Win. . .
Even if you follow college basketball, they biggest story about Xavier is their brawl with Cincinnati earlier in the season. After winning that game by 23 points to go to 8-0 on the season, Xavier lost 5 of their next 6 and haven't been the same team since. Tu Holloway is a solid player who can go off at any time and Xavier has 10 players averaging double-digit minutes. Xavier has a solid scorer and depth, which are two things you need in the NCAA tournament. They hadn't beaten a good team since Cincinnati until they beat Saint Louis in the A-10 tournament, but maybe the Musketeers are getting it all together at the right time.
2 Duke vs 15 Lehigh
Duke wins 10 of 10
Why Duke Will Win. . .
You either love them or hate them, but you can't argue that Duke is one of the best programs in the country. Coach K is arguably the best coach out there, which is always something to keep in mind. That being said, Duke hasn't fared well in recent years. Mason and Miles Plumlee provide them with a present down low, Austin Rivers isn't afraid to take the big shot, and Seth Curry can score as well. They have a Final Four caliber team, but the route there isn't easy for the Blue Devils.
My South Region Bracket
Sweet 16: Kentucky, Wichita State, Baylor, Duke
Elite 8: Kentucky, Baylor
Upsets: Wichita State over Indiana, Baylor over Duke
50-50 Picks: Iowa State over Connecticut
I pretty much have gone chalk in the South region. I have Kentucky advancing to the Final Four. My only real upsets are Wichita St over Indiana to advance to the Sweet 16 and Baylor over Duke to get into the Elite 8. I also am taking Iowa State over Connecticut, which probably puts me in the minority.
Monday, March 5, 2012
Packers Draft Predictions
It's that time of the year again. Just when you are finally getting over your Superbowl hangover, the scouting combine and NFL draft are upon us. This year the Packers have some issues to address, but once again are entering the draft with more flexibility than most teams. Their strategy will likely lean towards a best player available approach, but defense needs to be the focus. Sitting at #28, anything could happen. The Packers have done very well with late 1st round picks in recent years, getting Rodgers at #24 in 2005, Matthews at #26 in '09, and Bulaga and Sherrod at #23 and #32 respectively in the last two drafts. Here are my predictions for who the Packers should be targeting in this years' draft:.
The Packers have obvious needs to fill on defense, but this pick will come down to who is the best player available. A perfect fit here would be Nick Perry, a hybrid pass rusher from USC, who would provide pressure opposite Clay Matthews in our 3-4 defense. Perry likely will go anywhere form the mid-late 1st round, so chances are good he could fall to the Pack. It's also possible that CB Janoris Jenkins could fall farther than expected because of character issues. Jenkins has top-10 talent and would give the Packers options with Charles Woodson getting older and Nick Collins' future uncertain. It is even a possibility that the Packers could move up several spots for Jenkins or Perry. If both are gone, other possibilities are DT Fletcher Cox, RB Lamar Miller, or C Peter Konz.
Pick 28, Round 2 - FS George Iloka, Boise State
The Packers are likely going to stay on the defensive side of the ball, and assuming they go Perry in the 1st, they'll look to bolster their secondary with this pick. Iloka is a tall, lengthy safety who will need to bulk up in the NFL, but he has solid potential and had a solid showing at the combine. Boise State isn't on the same level as SEC, Pac-12, or Big Ten schools when it comes to strength & conditioning, so had Iloka been elsewhere his stock would probably be much higher. The Packers are pretty solid against the run, so Iloka would be allowed to roam as a free safety, where he is at his best. Other choices here are DE Vinny Curry, CB Jayron Hosley, or CB Trumaine Johnson.
Pick 28, Round 3 - OG Senio Kelemete, Washington
The Packers will need to address depth on the offensive line at some point in the draft and likely it will come here. It's going to be a matter of Ted Thompson taking the top lineman on his board, so I'm going with Senio Kelemete, a versatile lineman who is better suited for the interior in the NFL. Kelemete is athletic and has the ability to get to the second level on running plays, but lacks the size and technique to be a tackle in the NFL. Nonetheless, his versatility will help provide depth for the Packers who haven't addressed the issue so far this offseason. Again it all comes down to who is available and where Thompson has them ranked, but other names that could be called here are Kevin Zeitler, Amini Silatolu, James Brown, or Brandon Washington.
Pick 28, Round 4 - ILB Vontaze Burfict, Arizona State
This name should sound familiar to college football followers, as Burfict was named Pac-10 freshman of the year in 2009 and was once considered one of the top linebackers in the country. Since then, things have gone downhill fairly quickly. Burfict has had on-field and off-field issues and didn't impress anyone at the combine. So why would I have the Packers taking him here in the 4th round? Well the real answer is why not? The Packers are a good team and taking a chance on a player like Burfict is something they can afford to do. Burfict may not be the elite linebacker many once thought, but he's also not a lost cause like some think. Somewhere in the middle is a solid NFL talent that, in the right situation, could be a steal at this point in the draft. Other possibilities here are QB Kirk Cousins, C Quentin Saulsberry, or TE Ladarius Green.
Pick 28, Round 5 - QB Russell Wilson, Wisconsin
You probably noticed I listed Kirk Cousins as a possibility with the last pick, well with Matt Flynn gone, the Packers need more than just Graham Harrell behind Aaron Rodgers on the depth chart. There may be some bias from me here, but I like the Packers taking Wilson from my Alma mater. The knock on Wilson is his size, but he is athletic and intelligent. Many compare him to Drew Brees, who also was overlooked by many for his size. There's not much else to say about this pick, but anything could happen here. Other names you should know are CB Justin Bethel and LB Tank Carder.
Pick 28, Round 6 - CB Justin Bethel, Presbyterian
Pick 28, Round 7 - OT Josh Oglesby, Wisconsin
Well that does it for my Packers draft predictions. If they get 2 of the guys I've listed above, it will be a good draft for the Green and Yellow. Look out for my full round 1 mock draft coming in the next couple weeks.
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