1. Easy on the chalk and cinderellas
The majority of people either err on the side of caution or make too many risky picks. If you fill out a bracket going 100% chalk, you will surprisingly do alright, but you rarely will win a pool. There will be upsets, it's only natural. However, going too far in the other direction will only get you more trouble. Despite anomalies like last year, you should always be advancing #1 and #2 seeds past the first round. The same should go with #3 and #4 seeds, the reward is not worth the risk. Also, don't get caught up in the 12-5, 11-6, etc. upset statistics (I'll tell you why later). Bottom line is you should always have 3-4 upsets in the first round and a couple in the second round, but be wary having any more than that.
2. Be aware of trends
The most common trend is the 12-5 upset, but there is also another trend which you must be aware of. That trend is the seeding of mid-majors. Over the past 10 years, we have seen mid-majors go from cinderellas to powerhouses (Gonzaga, Butler, etc.), but we have also seen mid-major seeding improve as well. For example, this year Gonzaga, St. Louis, VCU, Creighton and Butler are all very good teams, however, in the past they typically would have still been seeded low due to their strength of schedule. This year, they are seeded much higher than their power conference counterparts. Let's take 2013 Creighton and 2006 Bradley as examples. The Bluejays went 27-7 and won the MVC and received a #7 seed, while 26-8 Oregon out of the PAC-12 received a #12 seed. In 2006, 20-10 Bradley, out of the MVC, received a #13 seed, while 20-10 California, from the PAC-10, received a #7 seed. Bradley went on to upset Kansas and Pittsburgh that year while California lost their opening round game. That is just one example of why you need to be wary of the mid-major cinderellas this year and beyond. The good mid-major teams now get the respect when it comes to seeding, so when it comes to cinderellas this year, you should be looking at under-seeded power conference teams like Minnesota and Oregon.
3. Postseason success goes a long way
There are quite a few people who will look at the past year or two of the NCAA tournament and pick teams that did well the previous year. This is definitely a wise thing to do. However, most people forget (or likely don't even know) that there are a few postseason tournaments for college hoops. Teams that have had success in these tournaments, have typically gone on to have success in the NCAA tournament in the following years. Here's a breakdown of these suchs teams:
2008 NIT Final Four: Ohio State, UMass, Florida, Mississippi
2009 NIT Final Four: Penn State, Baylor, San Diego State, Notre Dame
2010 NIT Final Four: Dayton, North Carolina, Mississippi, Rhode Island
2011 NIT FInal Four: Wichita State, Alabama, Colorado, Washington State
2008 CBI Final Four: Tulsa, Bradley, Virginia, Houston
2009 CBI Final Four: Oregon State, UTEP, Richmond, Stanford
2010 CBI Final Four: VCU, St Louis, Boston, Princeton
2011 CBI Final Four: Oregon, Creighton, Boise State, UCF
Teams in italics have won a game in the subsequent years and teams in bold have reached the Sweet 16 in the same time frame. And here are some results of these teams in the following years:
2012: Colorado #11 seed upsets UNLV, Creighton #8 beats Alabama , #9 St Louis beats Memphis
2011: #2 San Diego State in Sweet 16, #11 VCU in Final Four, #12 Richmond in Sweet 16
2010: #3 Baylor in Elite Eight
As you can see, teams have generally succeeded in the NCAA Tournament following a deep run in the NIT or CBI in prior years. Here's a look at last year's Final Fours:
2012 NIT Final Four: Stanford, Minnesota, Washington, UMass
2012 CBI Final Four: Pittsburgh, Washington State, Butler, Oregon State
The endgame here is that you are aware of the success of these teams. We have seen VCU and St. Louis rise to #5 and #4 seeds respectively. Oregon, Creighton, Boise State, Colorado, Wichita State, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and Butler all were in the Final Four of the CBI or NIT in 2011 or 2012 and are all in the NCAA Tournament this year. Don't be surpised to see a few of these teams in the Sweet 16 or pull off a big upset.
4. Use your resources and your gut
There are plenty of good sources of information out there at your disposal. Kenpom.com is a great site for those who love statistical analysis, while betting sites will give you the insight of some of the best minds when it comes to picking games. In the end, however, go with what you have seen with your own eyes. If you have watched a team play multiple times and know what they are about, don't let what you see on paper sway your opinion. Last year, everyone was saying how good Missouri was and how far they would go. I had seen them play a few times and saw some flaws in their game. While I didn't predict the Norfolk State upset, I did have them losing to Florida in the next game (there was another contributing reason to this which I will get to next). Just rememember, go with your gut, because in the end you will regret it if you don't.
5. Studs win big games
One thing that can never be stressed enough is how important it is to have NBA talent on the teams you pick. As I mentioned earlier, I picked Florida to go far last year because they had NBA potential in Bradley Beal, Patric Young and Erik Murphy. Kentucky, who was littered with NBA lotter picks, won the whole thing. This year teams like Michigan (Trey Burke, Glenn Robinson, Tim Hardaway JR), Kansas (Ben McLemore, Jeff Withey, Elijah Johnson) and NC State (CJ Leslie, Ty Warren, Lorenzo Brown, Rodney Purvis, Richard Howell) are full of NBA prospects. These teams may have underachieved in the regular season, but they have the NBA talent that can take them all the way to a Final Four.
6. College basketball is about the coaches
You might be wondering why I am saying this when I just mentioned it is the players that win the big games. Well, it's a little bit of both. When it comes to March, there are some coaches that it is foolish to bet against. Even if you don't believe Michigan State is a Final Four contender this year, you should still be penciling them into the Sweet 16 just because Tom Izzo is there. Some coaches know how to get their team prepared and get the job done. Bill Self, Bo Ryan, Brad Stevens...these guys simply know how to win in the tournament, so don't overlook them.
7. TV analysts have an audience to entertain
My final tip somewhat goes back to something I said in tip #1, don't pick too many upsets. The Jay Bilas' and Dick Vitale's of the world know a lot about basketball, that can't be debated, but what they say on those selection shows can't be taken too seriously. When an analysts says, "I could see Bucknell making a run", it doesn't mean they believe Bucknell will win a game, simply that any team could make a run. They are paid to give insight into the lesser-known teams, so don't buy into the talk about how good Nate Wolters is or how well IONA matches up with Ohio State. If you have a reason to pick the upset go for it, but don't let the talk on TV influence you into making too many decisions. (BTW, Nate Wolters is a NBA talent, but so are several guys on Michigan, so pick wisely).
Well I hope you take these tips and throw them out the window, because bonus tip #8 is don't change your mind. Stick with what you have and enjoy the ride. If, however, you really think I know what I'm talking about, here is my full bracket for all to see:
You let your Kansas blinders get in the way. SMH
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