Is It Time To End The Bo Ryan Era?

I'll preface by saying I have been one of Bo Ryan's biggest supporters since his arrival to Madison in 2001 but, like everything in life, there's a time to move on.  The Badgers' most recent early exit from the tournament may, and in my opinion should, fire up the talks of finding a replacement for the long-time successful Badgers' basketball coach.  While those who remember Badger basketball pre-Bennett likely find this to be blasphemous, the direction of our basketball program must be called into question. 

Don't get me wrong, Bo Ryan has turned Wisconsin basketball into a perennial top-25 program.  Under Ryan, the Badgers have been to the NCAA Tournament all 12 years, as well as claiming 3 Big Ten regular season titles and 2 Big Ten conference tournaments titles.  Ryan has led the Badgers to ten 20-win seasons and is among the top in winning percentage among all D-1 coaches.  Needless to say, Bo Ryan is one of the best coaches in the country when it comes to regular season success.

That success, however, has gone in the other direction over the past few seasons.  This is a direct result of two trends, one which is changing and another that isn't.  During the last 10 years, the Big Ten has gone from one of the worst conferences in college basketball to arguably the best.  Teams like Michigan State and Ohio State continue to find success come tournament time.  Programs like Indiana and Michigan are rising back to national powerhouses as well.  So why have the Badgers stayed stagnant, placing 3rd or 4th in the conference each of the past 5 seasons?  Well the answer is simple - Bo Ryan refuses to change.

Division-1 college basketball is not the same game it was when Ryan took over a Badgers squad a year removed from a Final Four run.  That Badgers Final Four team was the epitomy of team basketball, a style which won championships.  However, as time changed and basketball became more about recruiting and less about style of play, Bo Ryan refused to change with the times.  The state of Wisconsin watched Marquette guard Vander Blue single-handedly avoid an upset just a day before they watched Wisconsin get upset.  For those that remember, Blue had committed to Wisconsin only to decommit later because of comments by Wisconsin fans... well, sort of.  Some people believe that was solely the reason the Madison native change his mind, but others believe there is more to the story. 

It isn't a secret that Bo Ryan makes sure everyone knows that he is in charge.  Unfortunately, this approach can be a red flag for recruits looking at Wisconsin.  Vander Blue used the "message board" debacle as a reason to decommit from the Badgers, but Ryan's unwillingness to adjust his style to accomodate a player of Blue's talent clearly weighed into the decision.  Additionally, Ryan has not made any attempts to dismiss the notion that he refuses to recruit players that don't fit his system.  Now isn't it a coaches job to recruit the best players and teach them how to succeed in the current system?  Or possibly to modify the current system to get the most out of the players you have in it?

The tip of the iceberg, when it comes to Ryan's lack of appeal to recruits, may have come last spring.  It may be a story in the past for most fans, but it's a story that competing coaches have not forgot and likely make sure recruits don't either.  Jarrod Uthoff, a redshirt freshman, announced that he planned to transfer from the Badgers.  In response, Bo Ryan blocked schools from communicating with Uthoff and only backed off when he subsequently found himself showered with media scrutiny.  Eventually, Uthoff transferred to Iowa without issue, but the episode is clearly ammunition for Big Ten coaches recruting against Ryan.

Ryan simply has run his course in Wisconsin.  He has built upon Dick Bennett's Final Four run and turned Wisconsin basketball into a winning program, but there are no signs that the program can take the next step under Ryan's control.  In their 12 NCAA tournament appearances under Ryan, the Badgers have only advanced past the Sweet 16 once, back in 2005.  As you can see below, much of Ryan's success in the Big Ten also came prior to the 2006 season, when he still had some of Dick Bennetts recruits and Devin Harris, who is unquestionably the best player to ever play under Ryan.

Season	Team	Overall	Conference	Standing	Postseason
2001–02	Wisconsin	19–13	11–5	T-1st	NCAA 2nd Round
2002–03	Wisconsin	24–8	12–4	1st	NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2003–04	Wisconsin	25–7	12–4	T–2nd	NCAA 2nd Round
2004–05	Wisconsin	25–9	11–5	3rd	NCAA Elite Eight
2005–06	Wisconsin	19–12	9–7	T–4th	NCAA 1st Round
2006–07	Wisconsin	30–6	13–3	2nd	NCAA 2nd Round
2007–08	Wisconsin	31–5	16–2	1st	NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2008–09	Wisconsin	20–13	10–8	T–4th	NCAA 2nd Round
2009–10	Wisconsin	24–9	13–5	4th	NCAA 2nd Round
2010–11	Wisconsin	25–9	13–5	3rd	NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2011–12	Wisconsin	26–10	12–6	4th	NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2012–13	Wisconsin	23–11	12–6	T-4th	NCAA 2nd Round

If this isn't the end for Ryan, his last hope may rest on the shoulders of Sam Dekker. The Badgers have reached a plateau, one that only a superstar player, which goes against everything Ryan preaches, can get them beyond.  This may all just be the ranting of an upset Badger fan, but it should raise these questions to all Badger fans:

Are 20 win seasons and NCAA tournament bids enough?

Is Bo Ryan capable of taking the Wisconsin program to the next level?



I surely don't think so...

Erd's 7 Last Minute March Madness Tips

We are a day away from what I believe is the most exciting four day stretch of the sports year.  Brackets are busted, hopes are shattered and bragging rights are on the line.  Whether you are filling out your bracket for fun or have some serious coin riding on it, your goal is still the same - the perfect bracket.  It is nearly impossible to do this, but here are some tips that might just get you close enough to win your pool:

1. Easy on the chalk and cinderellas

The majority of people either err on the side of caution or make too many risky picks.  If you fill out a bracket going 100% chalk, you will surprisingly do alright, but you rarely will win a pool.  There will be upsets, it's only natural.  However, going too far in the other direction will only get you more trouble.  Despite anomalies like last year, you should always be advancing #1 and #2 seeds past the first round.  The same should go with #3 and #4 seeds, the reward is not worth the risk.  Also, don't get caught up in the 12-5, 11-6, etc. upset statistics (I'll tell you why later).  Bottom line is you should always have 3-4 upsets in the first round and a couple in the second round, but be wary having any more than that. 

2. Be aware of trends

The most common trend is the 12-5 upset, but there is also another trend which you must be aware of.  That trend is the seeding of mid-majors.  Over the past 10 years, we have seen mid-majors go from cinderellas to powerhouses (Gonzaga, Butler, etc.), but we have also seen mid-major seeding improve as well.  For example, this year Gonzaga, St. Louis, VCU, Creighton and Butler are all very good teams, however, in the past they typically would have still been seeded low due to their strength of schedule.  This year, they are seeded much higher than their power conference counterparts.  Let's take 2013 Creighton and 2006 Bradley as examples.  The Bluejays went 27-7 and won the MVC and received a #7 seed, while 26-8 Oregon out of the PAC-12 received a #12 seed.  In 2006, 20-10 Bradley, out of the MVC, received a #13 seed, while 20-10 California, from the PAC-10, received a #7 seed.  Bradley went on to upset Kansas and Pittsburgh that year while California lost their opening round game.  That is just one example of why you need to be wary of the mid-major cinderellas this year and beyond.  The good mid-major teams now get the respect when it comes to seeding, so when it comes to cinderellas this year, you should be looking at under-seeded power conference teams like Minnesota and Oregon.

3. Postseason success goes a long way

There are quite a few people who will look at the past year or two of the NCAA tournament and pick teams that did well the previous year.  This is definitely a wise thing to do.  However, most people forget (or likely don't even know) that there are a few postseason tournaments for college hoops.  Teams that have had success in these tournaments, have typically gone on to have success in the NCAA tournament in the following years.  Here's a breakdown of these suchs teams:

2008 NIT Final Four: Ohio State, UMass, Florida, Mississippi
2009 NIT Final Four: Penn State, Baylor, San Diego State, Notre Dame
2010 NIT Final Four: Dayton, North Carolina, Mississippi, Rhode Island
2011 NIT FInal Four: Wichita State, Alabama, Colorado, Washington State

2008 CBI Final Four: Tulsa, Bradley, Virginia, Houston
2009 CBI Final Four: Oregon State, UTEP, Richmond, Stanford
2010 CBI Final Four: VCU, St Louis, Boston, Princeton
2011 CBI Final Four: Oregon, Creighton, Boise State, UCF

Teams in italics have won a game in the subsequent years and teams in bold have reached the Sweet 16 in the same time frame.  And here are some results of these teams in the following years:

2012: Colorado #11 seed upsets UNLV, Creighton #8 beats Alabama , #9 St Louis beats Memphis
2011: #2 San Diego State in Sweet 16, #11 VCU in Final Four, #12 Richmond in Sweet 16
2010: #3 Baylor in Elite Eight

As you can see, teams have generally succeeded in the NCAA Tournament following a deep run in the NIT or CBI in prior years.  Here's a look at last year's Final Fours:

2012 NIT Final Four: Stanford, Minnesota, Washington, UMass
2012 CBI Final Four: Pittsburgh, Washington State, Butler, Oregon State

The endgame here is that you are aware of the success of these teams.  We have seen VCU and St. Louis rise to #5 and #4 seeds respectively.  Oregon, Creighton, Boise State, Colorado, Wichita State, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and Butler all were in the Final Four of the CBI or NIT in 2011 or 2012 and are all in the NCAA Tournament this year.  Don't be surpised to see a few of these teams in the Sweet 16 or pull off a big upset.

4. Use your resources and your gut

There are plenty of good sources of information out there at your disposal.  Kenpom.com is a great site for those who love statistical analysis, while betting sites will give you the insight of some of the best minds when it comes to picking games.  In the end, however, go with what you have seen with your own eyes.  If you have watched a team play multiple times and know what they are about, don't let what you see on paper sway your opinion.  Last year, everyone was saying how good Missouri was and how far they would go.  I had seen them play a few times and saw some flaws in their game.  While I didn't predict the Norfolk State upset, I did have them losing to Florida in the next game (there was another contributing reason to this which I will get to next).  Just rememember, go with your gut, because in the end you will regret it if you don't.

5. Studs win big games

One thing that can never be stressed enough is how important it is to have NBA talent on the teams you pick.  As I mentioned earlier, I picked Florida to go far last year because they had NBA potential in Bradley Beal, Patric Young and Erik Murphy.  Kentucky, who was littered with NBA lotter picks, won the whole thing.  This year teams like Michigan (Trey Burke, Glenn Robinson, Tim Hardaway JR), Kansas (Ben McLemore, Jeff Withey, Elijah Johnson) and NC State (CJ Leslie, Ty Warren, Lorenzo Brown, Rodney Purvis, Richard Howell) are full of NBA prospects.  These teams may have underachieved in the regular season, but they have the NBA talent that can take them all the way to a Final Four.

6. College basketball is about the coaches

You might be wondering why I am saying this when I just mentioned it is the players that win the big games.  Well, it's a little bit of both.  When it comes to March, there are some coaches that it is foolish to bet against.  Even if you don't believe Michigan State is a Final Four contender this year, you should still be penciling them into the Sweet 16 just because Tom Izzo is there.  Some coaches know how to get their team prepared and get the job done.  Bill Self, Bo Ryan, Brad Stevens...these guys simply know how to win in the tournament, so don't overlook them.

7. TV analysts have an audience to entertain

My final tip somewhat goes back to something I said in tip #1, don't pick too many upsets.  The Jay Bilas' and Dick Vitale's of the world know a lot about basketball, that can't be debated, but what they say on those selection shows can't be taken too seriously.  When an analysts says, "I could see Bucknell making a run", it doesn't mean they believe Bucknell will win a game, simply that any team could make a run.  They are paid to give insight into the lesser-known teams, so don't buy into the talk about how good Nate Wolters is or how well IONA matches up with Ohio State.  If you have a reason to pick the upset go for it, but don't let the talk on TV influence you into making too many decisions.  (BTW, Nate Wolters is a NBA talent, but so are several guys on Michigan, so pick wisely).



Well I hope you take these tips and throw them out the window, because bonus tip #8 is don't change your mind.  Stick with what you have and enjoy the ride.  If, however, you really think I know what I'm talking about, here is my full bracket for all to see:

The Packers Pre-Draft Plan

It's that time of the year when everyone likes to play NFL GM.  A plethora of mock drafts can be found with a simple google search.  Every second of the NFL combine can be seen online.  Youtube is full of highlights of nearly every prospect out there.  We are in a new age where the NFL fan has nearly as much access to the same information as NFL head offices do.  I like to play GM as much as the rest of them, so every year I go through my offseason plans for the Green Bay Packers.  My exact plan will never happen, but it's always fun to pretend.  But before we can even get into the draft, we need to look at the depth chart and what can be done prior to the draft.  We'll start off by breaking down are situation and each position:

QB
The Packers have arguably the best quarterback in the NFL.  Rodgers is due for a big payday, but there is no doubt the Packers will get it done.  There is no need to focus on backup quarterbacks at this time.  Without Rodgers, this team will go nowhere.

HB
Although we are a pass first offense, a reliable runningback is a need for GB.  DuJuan Harris came on well at the end of last year and Alex Green is coming off an injury, so a veteran who can pound it between the tackles is a priority.  It is unlikely the Packers will pursue Cedric Benson, but there are several big names out there that the Packers could be looking at.  Steven Jackson, Michael Turner and Ahmad Bradshaw all are looking for jobs this offseason. 

WR
Greg Jennings will likely not be a Packer next season.  Franchising Jennings would have eaten up a majority of the cap space and its unlikely we look to sign him.  Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and Randall Cobb alone are a top-5 receiving corps.  Look for the Pack to target a WR in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft to add some depth.

TE
The biggest question remaining this offseason is what to do with Jermichael Finley.  Finley and his agent have come out and said a pay cut is not an option.  Finley has been a liability both on and off the field, so it's likely Ted Thompson will cut ties with the tight end.  This move will free up nearly $9 mil in cap space, allowing the Packers to pursue other players in free agency. Tom Crabtree and Andrew Quarless wait in the wings, but expect the Packers to take a tight end in the early rounds if Finley is indeed let go.

OL
Offensive line is the biggest need for the Packers this offseason, particularly left tackle.  TJ Lang and Josh Sitton are reliable at the guard position and the Packers' brass is optimisitc about Evan Dietrich-Smith transitioning into the center role.  Bryan Bulaga will be the starting right tackle in 2013, but he needs to show he can be reliable.  Marshall Newhouse and Derek Sherrod are a liability though at the left tackle position, so expect the Packers to address this issue.  Jake Long is on the market and the cap space freed up by cutting ties with Jennings and/or Finley could make Long in a Packers jersey a possibility.  It is also a deep draft at OL, so expect a draft pick or two to be used on depth at this position.

DL
Injuries to Mike Neal and Jerel Worthy left the Packers thin on the defensive line last year.  BJ Raji, Ryan Pickett and CJ Wilson remain at the top of the depth chart, but expect Worthy and Neal to see an increase in snaps this year.  Depth on the defensive line will be addressed in the draft, but don't expect it until the final day of the draft.

LB
injuries also left the Packers thin at linebacker as well.  Nick Perry, AJ Hawk, Desmond Bishop and Clay Matthews are slated to begin the season as the starters, however 30 games were missed total amongst them last season (AJ Hawk was the only one to play 16 games).  If they stay healthy, the Packers will get solid play from the position this year, but depth is a concern for sure.  AJ Hawk may be on his way out of Green Bay as well, so if an Alec Ogletree or Jarvis Jones falls to the Packers at #26, they may consider a replacement for Hawk, but either way linebacker will be targeted in the draft.

DB
Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, and Casey Hawyard lead a solid group of cornerbacks, but 
the vacancy left by Charles Woodson will be the biggest competition in the offseason.  MD Jennings, Morgan Burnett and Jerron McMillian are in line to see playing time at the safety position.  There are bigger needs elsewhere for the Pack, but the safety position could be addressed in free agency or day two of the draft.

Now that I've outlined the situation at each position, here is the plan the Packers should take leading up to the draft:

1. Release Finley - Finley simply is too much of a hit on the cap to keep around.  The $8.75 million freed up by this move will allow us to pursue some big name free agents.

2. Sign Jake Long - Long is an elite left tackle who is coming off an injury.  Signing Long will likely require a contract somewhere around 6 years for $60 million, but most forget he's only 27 years old.  Locking up a left tackle of Long's caliber would make Rodgers a happy man.

3. Sign Aaron Rodgers to a new contract - It is time for the Packers to lock up #12 to a long term deal.  The bar has been set by Joe Flacco's deal, so Rodgers' deal will be above that.

4. Sign a free agent runningback - The ideal candidate is Steven Jackson, who should still be considered a top runningback in the league.  A 2-year $11 milliion contract could get the workhorse in Green Bay.  Michael Turner and Ahmad Bradshaw could help the team, but only at a discounted price.

If the Packers can get these moves done, it would put them in position to approach the draft with more freedom.  Tight end would need to be addressed early in the draft, but Ted Thompson would be able take the best defensive player available in the mid rounds.  As usual, I'll give you my Packers mock draft, so stay tuned for that in another post.