NFL Draft - 2011

With the 2011 NFL draft nearly upon us, I take some time out of my busy day to discuss me thoughts. Ok, so my boss is gone, her boss is gone, her boss's boss is gone, and everyone on in my office is on vacation, so Im not busy at all. Regardless, here are the top 10 things you need to know leading up to tonight's festivities...

1. Who will the WORLD CHAMPION Green Bay Packers select with the last and final pick?
Let me tell ya, being a top 10 pick makes the draft a lot more fun, but being dead last is a great feeling. Football is about winning in the fall, not winning in the spring, just ask the Detroit Lions. With the last pick on Thursday night, which may end up being Friday morning, the Packers take ....

Brooks Reed. If Ingram, Jimmy Smith, or Derek Sherrod is here, they take him, but they won't be. Mikel Leshoure is rumored here, but that is not a value pick the Packers are known for. This leaves us with Cameron Heyward and Brooks Reed. Reed has more versatility, and a better motor. Add in the fact that he can come from the complete opposite side of the field as Clay Matthews, and you opposing QBs cringe. Just ask anyone who takes snaps for the Bears. I quote Mel Kiper "Without the benefit of free agency this season, teams have not been able to fill their needs before the draft. Instead of needing 2 or 3 positions, they need 6 or 7 or more. Well, except for Green Bay. All they need is the season to start and another Lombardi trophy in the case." With that being said, don't be suprised if the Packers trade out of the first round (for someone to slide up and pick Dalton, Locker, or Ponder).

2. Who will go #1 overall?
Who should go #1 and who will go #1 are completely different questions. With Jimmy Clausen sitting on 1 year off being a 2nd rounder, the Panthers have a QB. He was a ROOKIE last year! Give him some slack. Aaron Rodgers didn't dominate until year 4, after some well needed clipboard time. Clausen was thrown into the firepit with no tools. Give him some time, and give him some talent, and he will be a solid QB. Taking Newton is risky, it is expensive, and it handcuffs your franchise for a decade if he isn't a perennial Pro Bowler. Do the right thing, and take AJ Green, Von Miller, Patrick Peterson, or Marcel Dareus here. But alas, Cam Newton is selected with the top pick.

3. No Trades.
The Draft will take an unprecendented form this year, due to the inability of teams to trade current players or to have signed free agents in the off season. Teams have glaring needs everywhere, and were unable to sign free agents to help themselves out. There will be more value drafting this year, and less need drafting. Pick for picks trading is the only kind of trade that will happen, and expect at least 2 in the first round. How different would mock drafts look if you put Kevin Kolb in a 49ers or Cards uniform...

4. Second attempt at Thursday night prime time TV.
Without even considering the Office finale, Thursday nights are packed full of big name prime time TV spots. Throw in that little labor dispute that is going on right now, and it will be interesting to see how fans take in the draft. Will the ratings match or beat last year, or will we see the ratings plummet? This could be the perfect time for fans to show the NFL what they have to lose if this labor issue continues.

5. Quarterbacks.
They are the face of a franchise, its backbone. Take a look at the teams drafting in the end of the draft, and what do they have in common? They have a QB. To win in this league, you need to have your prized possession making the calls and touching the ball every play. How many QBs will go on Thursday night? Could be as little as 2 (Newton and Gabbort), and could be as many as 7 (Dalton, Locker, Kaepernick, Ponder, and Mallett). My call is Newton (Panthers), Gabbort (Bills), Mallet (Seahawks), and Locker (Vikings) all go round 1, Ponder (Arizona) and Kaepernick (Bengals) go on Friday.

6. Running Backs.
The finesse spot that nobody is talking about at the top of this draft. Yet, I say it is possibly the most valuable position to fill. Trivia, name the running backs picked in the top 10 since 2004: There are 7....

CJ Spiller - Jury Still Out

Darren McFadden - Questionable, but has not lived up to the billing
AP - Lets call this a success.
Reggie Bush - Failure
Ronnie Brown - Failure for where he was picked.
Cedric Benson - Excellent pick if you need someone to tile your floor.
Cadillac Williams - Good, but not worthy of the pick.

That means in the past 7 NFL drafts, 1 back of value was selected in the top 10 (14%). How many were selected in picks 20-32? There were 9...

Jahvid Best - So far, a good pick

Donald Brown - Jury still out, so far, failure
Beanie Wells - ditto
Felix Jones - I would say a borderline success, above all but AP listed above
Rashard Mendenhall - Count it!
Chris Johnson - MVP caliber
Laurence Maroney - Ok for a while, but an overall failure, may have been ok for his end of the round slot
DeAngelo Williams - Mediocre, Im blaming the team, take him off the Panthers and its a good pick.
Joseph Addai - has had injuries, but I would call this late 1st rounder a success.

If you were keeping track, thats 6 (Best, Jones, Mendenhall, CJ, Wiliams, and Addai) picks I would rank above all but AP. That is a 67% success rate. Lesson: Take your running backs in the late 1st round, early second, which is where Mark Ingram, Mikel Leshoure, Ryan Williams, and DeMarco Murray are projected. Look for 3 of these guys to become fantasy monsters. My watch'em picks are Jacquizz Rodgers and Daniel Thomas.

7. A Poor WR group.
Sure, you have AJ Green and Julio Jones, but can anyone name the #3 ranked wideout? Me neither. (Its Torrey Smith from Maryland). Pending some development, the rest of the list is strictly 3rd wideout type of talent. Keep your eyes on the following guys 2-3 years from now: Jonathan Baldwin, Tandon Doss, Austin Pettis, and Armon Binns.

8. My steal of the draft:
Kyle Rudolph (TE, ND). I don't think this beast is off the board until mid second round, and its a shame. He is a monster (think Jermichael Finely and Antonio Gates sized) with an amazing pass catching ability, teamed with solid blocking skills. Whoever picks this kid up is going to have add one hell of a weapon.

9. The most irrelevant position in sports:
The kicker. Trivia: If a kicker is drafted, and no one is around to see it, does anyone give a shit? Answer: No. Sure, when it comes down to a last second field goal, you don't want Joe Schmo attempting a 55 yarder. But come on, they did absolutely NOTHING to get you to that spot. You can find a kicker in the hallway who can get the job done most of the time. Using a draft pick on this position is a complete and utter waste. The Oakland Raiders (notorious for the suburb drafting) wasted a #17 pick on Sebastian Janikowski. Now granted, he has one of the best legs in the league, but where has that gotten Oakland? There are 100 kickers who went undrafted who could fill in for him, and the Raiders would be no worse off. Who could they have selected? Shaun Alexander...Chris Hovan...Erik Flowers...Ahmed Plummer... Keith Bulluck... Mark Roman...Chad Clifton... all of whom would have been more beneficial picks, and all were selected after Sebastian in the 1st or 2nd round. (To the Raiders credit, Courtney Brown, Chris Samuels, Peter Warrick, Corey Simon, Travis Taylor, Ron Dayne, Bubba Franks, and Deltha O'Neal were all taken before Janikowski, so hey, they could've done worse). So will any kickers be taken before Sunday in this year's draft? I sure as hell hope not.

10. All considered, the NFL draft is really quite insignificant.
The hoopla and time put into it really is a guessing game in the end. If you try to argue this, I will do nothing but point you in the direction of Ryan Leaf and Peyton Manning, Barry Sanders and Tony Mandarich, Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith. Or JaMarcus Russell. Or Akili Smith. These guys went at the top, and a good number of Hall of Famers to be went near the bottom (Montana - 3rd round, Brady - 6th). All of the analysis in the world can only guide you in a direction, it cannot predict the future. So grab yourself a beer, sit down, and enjoy the draft tonight (and all weekend long). It is the one weekend a year when all teams have a chance, all fans can have some hope for the future, and is a weekend which most of these young kids have been dreaming of their entire lives. The next NFL legend may be the first pick in the draft, or who knows, maybe he won't be drafted at all...