Erd's 7 Last Minute March Madness Tips

We are a day away from what I believe is the most exciting four day stretch of the sports year.  Brackets are busted, hopes are shattered and bragging rights are on the line.  Whether you are filling out your bracket for fun or have some serious coin riding on it, your goal is still the same - the perfect bracket.  It is nearly impossible to do this, but here are some tips that might just get you close enough to win your pool:

1. Easy on the chalk and cinderellas

The majority of people either err on the side of caution or make too many risky picks.  If you fill out a bracket going 100% chalk, you will surprisingly do alright, but you rarely will win a pool.  There will be upsets, it's only natural.  However, going too far in the other direction will only get you more trouble.  Despite anomalies like last year, you should always be advancing #1 and #2 seeds past the first round.  The same should go with #3 and #4 seeds, the reward is not worth the risk.  Also, don't get caught up in the 12-5, 11-6, etc. upset statistics (I'll tell you why later).  Bottom line is you should always have 3-4 upsets in the first round and a couple in the second round, but be wary having any more than that. 

2. Be aware of trends

The most common trend is the 12-5 upset, but there is also another trend which you must be aware of.  That trend is the seeding of mid-majors.  Over the past 10 years, we have seen mid-majors go from cinderellas to powerhouses (Gonzaga, Butler, etc.), but we have also seen mid-major seeding improve as well.  For example, this year Gonzaga, St. Louis, VCU, Creighton and Butler are all very good teams, however, in the past they typically would have still been seeded low due to their strength of schedule.  This year, they are seeded much higher than their power conference counterparts.  Let's take 2013 Creighton and 2006 Bradley as examples.  The Bluejays went 27-7 and won the MVC and received a #7 seed, while 26-8 Oregon out of the PAC-12 received a #12 seed.  In 2006, 20-10 Bradley, out of the MVC, received a #13 seed, while 20-10 California, from the PAC-10, received a #7 seed.  Bradley went on to upset Kansas and Pittsburgh that year while California lost their opening round game.  That is just one example of why you need to be wary of the mid-major cinderellas this year and beyond.  The good mid-major teams now get the respect when it comes to seeding, so when it comes to cinderellas this year, you should be looking at under-seeded power conference teams like Minnesota and Oregon.

3. Postseason success goes a long way

There are quite a few people who will look at the past year or two of the NCAA tournament and pick teams that did well the previous year.  This is definitely a wise thing to do.  However, most people forget (or likely don't even know) that there are a few postseason tournaments for college hoops.  Teams that have had success in these tournaments, have typically gone on to have success in the NCAA tournament in the following years.  Here's a breakdown of these suchs teams:

2008 NIT Final Four: Ohio State, UMass, Florida, Mississippi
2009 NIT Final Four: Penn State, Baylor, San Diego State, Notre Dame
2010 NIT Final Four: Dayton, North Carolina, Mississippi, Rhode Island
2011 NIT FInal Four: Wichita State, Alabama, Colorado, Washington State

2008 CBI Final Four: Tulsa, Bradley, Virginia, Houston
2009 CBI Final Four: Oregon State, UTEP, Richmond, Stanford
2010 CBI Final Four: VCU, St Louis, Boston, Princeton
2011 CBI Final Four: Oregon, Creighton, Boise State, UCF

Teams in italics have won a game in the subsequent years and teams in bold have reached the Sweet 16 in the same time frame.  And here are some results of these teams in the following years:

2012: Colorado #11 seed upsets UNLV, Creighton #8 beats Alabama , #9 St Louis beats Memphis
2011: #2 San Diego State in Sweet 16, #11 VCU in Final Four, #12 Richmond in Sweet 16
2010: #3 Baylor in Elite Eight

As you can see, teams have generally succeeded in the NCAA Tournament following a deep run in the NIT or CBI in prior years.  Here's a look at last year's Final Fours:

2012 NIT Final Four: Stanford, Minnesota, Washington, UMass
2012 CBI Final Four: Pittsburgh, Washington State, Butler, Oregon State

The endgame here is that you are aware of the success of these teams.  We have seen VCU and St. Louis rise to #5 and #4 seeds respectively.  Oregon, Creighton, Boise State, Colorado, Wichita State, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and Butler all were in the Final Four of the CBI or NIT in 2011 or 2012 and are all in the NCAA Tournament this year.  Don't be surpised to see a few of these teams in the Sweet 16 or pull off a big upset.

4. Use your resources and your gut

There are plenty of good sources of information out there at your disposal.  Kenpom.com is a great site for those who love statistical analysis, while betting sites will give you the insight of some of the best minds when it comes to picking games.  In the end, however, go with what you have seen with your own eyes.  If you have watched a team play multiple times and know what they are about, don't let what you see on paper sway your opinion.  Last year, everyone was saying how good Missouri was and how far they would go.  I had seen them play a few times and saw some flaws in their game.  While I didn't predict the Norfolk State upset, I did have them losing to Florida in the next game (there was another contributing reason to this which I will get to next).  Just rememember, go with your gut, because in the end you will regret it if you don't.

5. Studs win big games

One thing that can never be stressed enough is how important it is to have NBA talent on the teams you pick.  As I mentioned earlier, I picked Florida to go far last year because they had NBA potential in Bradley Beal, Patric Young and Erik Murphy.  Kentucky, who was littered with NBA lotter picks, won the whole thing.  This year teams like Michigan (Trey Burke, Glenn Robinson, Tim Hardaway JR), Kansas (Ben McLemore, Jeff Withey, Elijah Johnson) and NC State (CJ Leslie, Ty Warren, Lorenzo Brown, Rodney Purvis, Richard Howell) are full of NBA prospects.  These teams may have underachieved in the regular season, but they have the NBA talent that can take them all the way to a Final Four.

6. College basketball is about the coaches

You might be wondering why I am saying this when I just mentioned it is the players that win the big games.  Well, it's a little bit of both.  When it comes to March, there are some coaches that it is foolish to bet against.  Even if you don't believe Michigan State is a Final Four contender this year, you should still be penciling them into the Sweet 16 just because Tom Izzo is there.  Some coaches know how to get their team prepared and get the job done.  Bill Self, Bo Ryan, Brad Stevens...these guys simply know how to win in the tournament, so don't overlook them.

7. TV analysts have an audience to entertain

My final tip somewhat goes back to something I said in tip #1, don't pick too many upsets.  The Jay Bilas' and Dick Vitale's of the world know a lot about basketball, that can't be debated, but what they say on those selection shows can't be taken too seriously.  When an analysts says, "I could see Bucknell making a run", it doesn't mean they believe Bucknell will win a game, simply that any team could make a run.  They are paid to give insight into the lesser-known teams, so don't buy into the talk about how good Nate Wolters is or how well IONA matches up with Ohio State.  If you have a reason to pick the upset go for it, but don't let the talk on TV influence you into making too many decisions.  (BTW, Nate Wolters is a NBA talent, but so are several guys on Michigan, so pick wisely).



Well I hope you take these tips and throw them out the window, because bonus tip #8 is don't change your mind.  Stick with what you have and enjoy the ride.  If, however, you really think I know what I'm talking about, here is my full bracket for all to see:

The Packers Pre-Draft Plan

It's that time of the year when everyone likes to play NFL GM.  A plethora of mock drafts can be found with a simple google search.  Every second of the NFL combine can be seen online.  Youtube is full of highlights of nearly every prospect out there.  We are in a new age where the NFL fan has nearly as much access to the same information as NFL head offices do.  I like to play GM as much as the rest of them, so every year I go through my offseason plans for the Green Bay Packers.  My exact plan will never happen, but it's always fun to pretend.  But before we can even get into the draft, we need to look at the depth chart and what can be done prior to the draft.  We'll start off by breaking down are situation and each position:

QB
The Packers have arguably the best quarterback in the NFL.  Rodgers is due for a big payday, but there is no doubt the Packers will get it done.  There is no need to focus on backup quarterbacks at this time.  Without Rodgers, this team will go nowhere.

HB
Although we are a pass first offense, a reliable runningback is a need for GB.  DuJuan Harris came on well at the end of last year and Alex Green is coming off an injury, so a veteran who can pound it between the tackles is a priority.  It is unlikely the Packers will pursue Cedric Benson, but there are several big names out there that the Packers could be looking at.  Steven Jackson, Michael Turner and Ahmad Bradshaw all are looking for jobs this offseason. 

WR
Greg Jennings will likely not be a Packer next season.  Franchising Jennings would have eaten up a majority of the cap space and its unlikely we look to sign him.  Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and Randall Cobb alone are a top-5 receiving corps.  Look for the Pack to target a WR in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft to add some depth.

TE
The biggest question remaining this offseason is what to do with Jermichael Finley.  Finley and his agent have come out and said a pay cut is not an option.  Finley has been a liability both on and off the field, so it's likely Ted Thompson will cut ties with the tight end.  This move will free up nearly $9 mil in cap space, allowing the Packers to pursue other players in free agency. Tom Crabtree and Andrew Quarless wait in the wings, but expect the Packers to take a tight end in the early rounds if Finley is indeed let go.

OL
Offensive line is the biggest need for the Packers this offseason, particularly left tackle.  TJ Lang and Josh Sitton are reliable at the guard position and the Packers' brass is optimisitc about Evan Dietrich-Smith transitioning into the center role.  Bryan Bulaga will be the starting right tackle in 2013, but he needs to show he can be reliable.  Marshall Newhouse and Derek Sherrod are a liability though at the left tackle position, so expect the Packers to address this issue.  Jake Long is on the market and the cap space freed up by cutting ties with Jennings and/or Finley could make Long in a Packers jersey a possibility.  It is also a deep draft at OL, so expect a draft pick or two to be used on depth at this position.

DL
Injuries to Mike Neal and Jerel Worthy left the Packers thin on the defensive line last year.  BJ Raji, Ryan Pickett and CJ Wilson remain at the top of the depth chart, but expect Worthy and Neal to see an increase in snaps this year.  Depth on the defensive line will be addressed in the draft, but don't expect it until the final day of the draft.

LB
injuries also left the Packers thin at linebacker as well.  Nick Perry, AJ Hawk, Desmond Bishop and Clay Matthews are slated to begin the season as the starters, however 30 games were missed total amongst them last season (AJ Hawk was the only one to play 16 games).  If they stay healthy, the Packers will get solid play from the position this year, but depth is a concern for sure.  AJ Hawk may be on his way out of Green Bay as well, so if an Alec Ogletree or Jarvis Jones falls to the Packers at #26, they may consider a replacement for Hawk, but either way linebacker will be targeted in the draft.

DB
Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, and Casey Hawyard lead a solid group of cornerbacks, but 
the vacancy left by Charles Woodson will be the biggest competition in the offseason.  MD Jennings, Morgan Burnett and Jerron McMillian are in line to see playing time at the safety position.  There are bigger needs elsewhere for the Pack, but the safety position could be addressed in free agency or day two of the draft.

Now that I've outlined the situation at each position, here is the plan the Packers should take leading up to the draft:

1. Release Finley - Finley simply is too much of a hit on the cap to keep around.  The $8.75 million freed up by this move will allow us to pursue some big name free agents.

2. Sign Jake Long - Long is an elite left tackle who is coming off an injury.  Signing Long will likely require a contract somewhere around 6 years for $60 million, but most forget he's only 27 years old.  Locking up a left tackle of Long's caliber would make Rodgers a happy man.

3. Sign Aaron Rodgers to a new contract - It is time for the Packers to lock up #12 to a long term deal.  The bar has been set by Joe Flacco's deal, so Rodgers' deal will be above that.

4. Sign a free agent runningback - The ideal candidate is Steven Jackson, who should still be considered a top runningback in the league.  A 2-year $11 milliion contract could get the workhorse in Green Bay.  Michael Turner and Ahmad Bradshaw could help the team, but only at a discounted price.

If the Packers can get these moves done, it would put them in position to approach the draft with more freedom.  Tight end would need to be addressed early in the draft, but Ted Thompson would be able take the best defensive player available in the mid rounds.  As usual, I'll give you my Packers mock draft, so stay tuned for that in another post.

Erd's 2013 NFL Mock Draft

 

1. Chiefs - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

The Chiefs probably wish they could fast forward a year and be choosing between Jadeveon Clowney and Johnny Manziel, but unfortunately for them they are likely choosing between Joeckel and Eric Fisher.  This all comes down to who they have higher on their board.  We may see Fisher pass Joeckel in the coming weeks, but for now, it's Joeckel.

Boocub's Pick: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

2. Jaguars - Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida

The Jags have a lot of choices here, but likely they will go with a defensive lineman.  With the pending news on Star Lotulelei's heart condition, the Jags will probably feel safer taking Floyd from within the state.  They passed on a certain Florida Gator back in 2010, but this time, they'll take the Gator.

Boocub's Pick: Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida

3. Raiders - Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State

The Raiders are in need of a pass rush and Werner is considered the best pass rusher in the draft.  They may choose to go with Lotulelei, Damontre Moore, or Ezekial Ansah, but Werner probably is the best fit.

Boocub's Pick: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

4. Eagles - Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama

There is no question that the Eagles need to improve their offensive line, it's just a matter of which prospect they take.  Warmack's footwork and quickness are his strength, which could make him a good fit in Chip Kelly's offense.  The Eagles may also go with Fisher here, or possibly surprise with Lane Johnson, who had a great showing at the combine.

Boocub's Pick: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

5. Lions - Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

Often draft needs are dependant upon the talent in your division.  The Lions need to find an answer to the Cutler-Marshall combo  in Chicago and Aaron Rodgers & Co. in Green Bay.  Milliner has the size that NFL teams are looking for, so I find it unlikely the Lions pass on him here.

Boocub's Pick: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

6. Browns - Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon

I think this is where we will find our first trade of the draft.  Look for the Bills to move up ahead of the Cardinals to take Geno Smith. The Browns could possibly go with Geno Smith here, but I think it's more likely the wait and look for a QB in Round 2 or 3.  The pass rush is a concern, so Moore would be a logical fit.  Again, word is still out on Star Lotulelei's heart condition, which could drop him significantly.  If he is cleared, the Browns could go with him here or possibly Ezekial Ansah.  UPDATE: I previously had Damontre Moore here, but following his abysmal performance at the combine, I have him dropping.  Dion Jordan shoots up the this spot with his solid combine performance.

Boocub's Pick: Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M

7. Cardinals - Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

Despite blowing smoke about Matt Barkley, the Cardinals would be ecstatic to have the choice between Fisher and Geno Smith here.  Some believe the Cardinals covet Geno Smith, others say they won't take a quarterback here.  I'm predicting Buffalo leapfrogs Arizona to take Smith, leaving the Cardinals still happy to get Fisher.  Either way, we all know they aren't taking Barkley here.

Boocub's Pick: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

8. Bills - Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

As mentioned earlier, I think we'll Buffalo move up to #6 to get Geno Smith.  The Bills are in drastic need of a franchise QB, and clearly Ryan Fitzpatrick is not that man.  They could stay put and take Keenan Allen here and hope for Barkley or Glennon to fall to them in 2nd, but they likely would be willing to part with a 3rd or 4th rounder to move up for Smith. If the Bills indeed go with Smith here, they will probably try to grab Tavon Austin or Robert Woods in the 2nd round to help him out.

Boocub's Pick:  Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State

9. Jets - Ezekial Ansah, DE, BYU

The Jets have serious needs after some cuts to clear cap space.  Star Lotulelei again is still in play, but a heart condition is not something GM's will want to take a chance on.  Ansah could fill a need for the Jets and may be the best player available on their board here as all.  Jarvis Jones, Barkevious Mingo, and Dion Jordan are other names that may be taken in this spot.

Boocub's Pick: Ezekial Ansah, DE, BYU

10. Titans - Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

Just when the Titans thought they wouldn't have to face an elite QB in their division twice a year, Andrew Luck came around.  The Titans needs to bolster their pass defense and Vaccaro is the top choice here.  It may be a little high, but they have a need to fill.  Vaccaro is solid and a good showing at the combine may help the Titans validate taking him here.

Boocub's Pick: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

11. Chargers - Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

I've seen Johnson here in multiple mocks and for good reason.  The Chargers need to improve their line and Johnson only helped his stock at the combine.  The Chargers could also go with best player available be here, but the need is offensive line.  If Eric Fisher or Chance Warmack are still on the board here somehow, expect the Chargers to go with one of them.

Boocub's Pick:  Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

12. Dolphins - Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

The Dolphins have four picks on Friday, so expect them to go with the best player available here an fill needs in rounds 2 and 3.  Lotulelei could still be on the board here even if his heart condition is not serious.  This pick would actually help the Dolphins quite a bit.  If Lotulelei's heart condition is a threat to his NFL career, look for Barkevious Mingo here.

 Boocub's Pick: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

13. Buccaneers - Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State

Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Matt Ryan will tear up the Bucs secondary if they don't address it in the draft.  This pick could come down between Rhodes, Desmond Trufant, and Johnthan Banks.  Tuesday's combine results could be the deciding factor for who the Bucs go with.  For now, Rhodes seems to be highest on most big boards, but if that changes, expect this pick to change.

Boocub's Pick: Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State

14. Panthers - Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

The Panthers improved their linebacking group by taking Luke Kuechly in last year's draft and are looking for Jon Beason to stay healthy and be productive this season.  The Panthers would likely go with safety Kenny Vaccaro if he's still around, otherwise look for them to add some depth up front.  Lotulelei would not fall past here if he's cleared, but if he's already gone, Barkevious Mingo would probably be the pick.  I'm gonna go out on limb though and say the Panthers take the trending Cordarrelle Patterson to play across from (and to eventually replace) Steve Smith. 

Boocub's Pick: Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State

15. Saints - Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU

The Saints probably will be looking to reload their defense if they do indeed switch to a 3-4.  They have a couple options here with Mingo, Dion Jordan, Jarvis Jones, or Sheldon Richardson.  Mingo may be the biggest project, but may also have the biggest upside.  This could be a toss-up, but MIngo's performance at the combine likely assured he will not fall past the Saints here.

Boocub's Pick:  Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

16. Rams - Keenan Allen, WR, California

The Rams are the only team currently with multiple first round picks, which always leads to the possibility of them moving up.  This year's draft, however, is deeper than it is top-heavy, so I expect they will stay put.  The Rams have the luxury of taking best player available here and addressing a need with pick #22.  It seems the Rams are committed to Sam Bradford, so it's logical they find someone here to help him.  Whether that is jonathan Cooper to protect him or Keenan Allen to give him a legitimate target is the question.  With a few teams in need of a WR between pick #16 and #22, I expect the Rams to take the WR here and hope for Cooper, or possibly DJ Fluker, at #22.

Boocub's Pick: Johnathan Cooper, G, North Carolina

17. Steelers - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

The Steelers will definitely be happy with Jones falling to them at #17.  They are in need of a pass rusher and Jones would fit.  Jones could've solidifed a spot in the top 10, but his decision to not compete in drills at the combine could cause him to fall on draft boards.  A solid pro day might push Jones back into the top 10, but for now, I have him going here.  If Jones is gone and they don't like the pass rushers on the board, Pittsburgh would likely target a WR.

Boocub's Pick: Dion Jordan, DE/OLB, Oregon

18. Cowboys - Johnathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina

This is another pick that fits a need with the best player on the board.  The Cowboys are likely to get a deal worked out with Tony Romo soon, and drafting an interior lineman to protect him is a necessity.  The other possibility here is Sheldon Richardson, but offensive line is the glaring need for Dallas.

Boocub's Pick: Chance Warmack, G, Alabama

19. Giants - Sheldon Richardson, DT,  Missouri

The Giants have some needs in the draft, but they will likely be enticed to take a player like Richardson if he falls to them. DJ Fluker is probably a better pick to fill their needs, but the Giants are willing to forego needs to take a top 10 talent at #19.  A cornerback or linebacker is also a possibility for the Giants here.

Boocub's Pick: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

20. Bears - DJ Fluker, OT, Alabama

Jay Cutler is a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback when he has time to throw, but unfortunately he hasn't had much of that during his time in Chicago.  The Bears will get great value with Fluker here, so I don't see any other logical pick for them.  They could surprise and take Tyler Eifert to give Cutler another target, but that still wouldn't help them as much as an OT.  The Bears also need to beginning finding successors for their aging defense, but I'd be surprised if they go that route with this pick.

Boocub's Pick: D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama

21. Bengals - Alec Ogletree, OLB, Georgia

There will be no surprise here if the Bengals take Alec Ogletree.  Most scouts agree he has top 10 talent, but off-field issues are a concern.  The Bengals, however, make a point to overlook off-field issues.  Whether they just want to take the best talent available or they want to improve their arrests total, it has paid off as of late, especially with the emergence of last year's undrafted rookie Vontaze Burfict (whom I urged my Packers to take).  If Ogletree doesn't get snatched up earlier in the draft, this would be my most confident pick in the #20-#32 range.

Boocub's Pick: Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU

22. Rams (from Redskins) - Eric Reid, FS, LSU

I projected the Rams to go WR-OL with their first round picks, but with Fluker and Cooper both gone, I look for them to address another need.  The Rams have the tough task of gameplanning for Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson now, so they need to address their free safety position.  Reid is know for being an aggressive all-out player, which is something they could use in their secondary.  This may be reach in some people's eyes, but it may just be the right pick for the Rams here.

Boocub's Pick: Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia

23. Vikings - Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

We are still awaiting a conclustion to the Percy Harvin drama in Minnesota, but assuming it ends in them cutting ties with him, they will be looking for a WR.  Actually, either way they should be looking for a WR.  The Vikings need more vertical threats to prevent teams from putting 9 guys in the box to stop Adrian Peterson.  Tavon Austin would be a better replacement for Percy Harvin than complement to him, so Robert Woods would be more likely here if Harvin stays around.  Another possibility is that the Vikings take Manti Te'o to improve their linebacking group.  Even better, the Vikings could bring back their loveboat and get some pictures of Te'o on it.  Seing Te'o with real women could put to rest some of the recent questions regarding him.

Boocub's Pick: Keenan Allen, WR, California

24. Colts - Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M

The Colts could use some help at CB, but Moore could help them in the pass rush as well.  I previously had Moore going much higher, but his performance at the combine has him slipping on draft boards.  Moore could bring his stock back up at his pro day, but for now, the Colts are happy to get him at #24.  Johnthan Banks or Desmond Trufant are the other likely options here.

Boocub's Pick: Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina

25. Seahawks - Kawann Short, DT, Purdue

Seattle does not have any glaring holes, which is a luxury when it comes to draft time.  Their two biggest needs are probably an interior defensive lineman and wide receiver.  There are quite a few options for Pete Carroll here at DT.  Short, Jonnathan Hankins, and multiple guys named Williams could all be a possibility here, but I like Carroll to go out and get Short. 

Boocub's Pick: Kawann Short, DT, Purdue

26. Packers - Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU

Most draft boards I've seen have the Packers taking Eddie Lacy, Manti Te'o or a WR, but I don't see that happening.  Lacy is a great talent, but the Packers are pass first team.  I have my doubts about Te'o and I am hoping they don't go there.  I think this pick really comes down to what they do with Jermichael Finley and Greg Jennings.  If Finley goes, I will immediately change this pick to Tyler Eifert.  Even if Jennings is gone, the Packers likely won't address WR until late in the draft.  So for now, I have my Packers taking Minter over Te'o, but Eifert is waiting in the wings.  Another possible choice is Barrett Jones to improve the offensive line, which also is a big need for the Pack.

Boocub's Pick: Johnathan Jenkins, DT, Georgia

27. Texans - Robert Woods, WR, USC

It's no secret that Andre Johnson only has a few years left and the Texans need a realible target to compliment and later replace him.  Woods possesses the physical tools they will be looking for.  Houston's defense is solid, so I don't see them going anywhere but WR here, whether that be Woods or another WR that has fallen.

Boocub's Pick: Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU

28. Broncos - Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State

This deep into the draft it is starting to become a guessing game, so I'll throw Hankins out there for this pick.  The Broncos do need help on the defensive line, so Hankins would fill a need.  I'm not sure how the Broncos feel about backup QB Brock Osweiler, but they know Peyton has two or three more years left in him at most, so if they wook Mike Glennon or Ryan Nassib here it wouldn't surprise me.

Boocub's Pick: Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama

29. Patriots (traded to Dolphins) - Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame

It is always a surprise when it comes the Patriots in the draft.  They real guess is will they stay at #29 or trade down.  The Patriots only have 5 picks in this draft, so I think it's likely they look to move down and get a couple day two picks in exchange.  The Dolphins are in need of some offensive weapons, so Eifert would be a great pick for them.  I'm going to predict the Dolphins move ahead of the Falcons to get Eifert and it likely will cost them the #42 and #84 pick.

Boocub's Pick: Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

30. Falcons - Datone Jones, DE, UCLA

The Falcons would love to have gotten Eifert here to following Tony Gonzalez, but with the Dolphins moving up to snag him, they are going to address the defensive end position.  Datone Jones is the best end available on the board, so I'm penciling him in here.  Zach Ertz is also a possibility, but I don't see him quite this high.

Boocub's Pick: Alex Okafor, DE/OLB, Texas

31. 49ers - Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington

I only have one CB gone at this point, so I'd expect a rush on them to start soon.  San Francisco has the luxury of going with the best player available, which is probably Trufant or Johnthan Banks.  There are other routes they could go, but a defensive back is likely.

Boocub's Pick: Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International

32. Ravens - Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame

If anything, this pick will make for riveting television.  I wouldn't be surprised if there is a camera permanently installed near Te'o on draft day.  Te'o's showing at the combine probably dropped him to a late first round pick at best, so the only other spot I see him going is to the Packers at #26.  I'm hoping that doesn't happen, so I'm projecting the Ravens take Te'o to help fill the hole in the middle of their defense. It will be tough shoes for Te'o to fill, but would be a great opportunity for him.

Boocub's Picks: Matt Elam, S, Florida

 

I hope you enjoyed my mock draft.  I'll be updating this throughout the remainder of the combine and as things change throughout the pro days, so be sure to check back. 

Erd's Fantasy Fantasy Team

Every year when preparing for my fantasy draft, I come up with a plan of who I am going to take in every round.  Anyone that does fantasy knows that it is impossible to get everyone you want.  However, I once again had this list, so I thought I'd share it.

Here' how it works:

1) I go by the ADP rankings on Mockdraftcentral.com
2) I select which player I'd ideally want to draft from every set of 10 (1-10, 11-20, 21-30, etc)
3) I adjust accordingly based on the need to fill all position and backup every position

It's pretty simple, so here's the players I took and where they were ranked:

1-10: (5) Aaron Rodgers
11-20: (12) Jimmy Graham
21-30: (21) Steven Jackson
31-40: (38) Brandon Marshall
41-50: (41) AJ Green
51-60: (54) Jordy Nelson
61-70: (65) BenJarvus Green-Ellis
71-80: (71) Donald Brown
81-90: (83) Dwayne Bowe
91-100: (95) Jay Cutler
101-110: (105) Eric Decker
111-120: (113) Cedric Benson
121-130: (130) Houston
131-140: (140) Titus Young
141-150: (14!) Robbie Gould

Here' the roster breakdown:

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler
WR: Brandon Marshall, AJ Green, Jordy Nelson, Dwayne Bowe, Eric Decker, Titus Young
RB: Steven Jackson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Donald Brown, Cedric Benson
TE: Jimmy Graham
K: Robbie Gould
DEF: Houston

Overall, I feel this team would be a lock for the playoffs in any league.  Rodgers is nearly unstoppable and Jimmy Graham is going to end the year in his own tier when it comes to tight ends (I like Gronk, but his numbers will be well under Graham's).  Brandon Marshall is back with the Cutler; together they were one of the most dangerous aerial attacks.  I don't actually like the Jordy Nelson pick (I think he had his career year last year, but he was the best player available.  Bowe should return to form this season, Decker will be Peyton's favorite target (which equals big fantasy production) and Titus Young is in a situation in which he could be a top-15 fantasy WR.  I believe in the Law Firm more than most and SJax still has something left in the tank.  Brown and Benson are both starting runningbacks and could easily find themselves in the starting lineup depending on matchups.  If you have this team or something close to it, you should be happy.

Erd's Guide to Fantasy Football 2012

Who should I draft with the 2nd pick?  Should I target a QB in round 1? If I don't get a QB early, who should I target? What rookie will have the biggest impact?

These are all questions that are commonplace at this time of the year.  As we approach the week 3 of the preseason, fantasy football drafts are in full swing.  Every expert has posted their mock drafts, sleepers, busts, etc., but if you read enough of them, you realize there are very few things that are a consensus when it comes to fantasy football.  Unfortunately, most of the time the "experts" get it wrong.  This doesn't mean they don't know anything, it's just the nature of the game.  People don't want to read "don't draft rookies, they aren't proven" or "when in doubt, take the best player available".  That simply doesn't sell tickets.  They are put in a position to name a player and that's what they do.

I did not want to do that, so I'm just going to give you my top 10 at each position.  More importantly though, I'm going to give you the draft strategy I've used for years.  Some details of it have changed as the fantasy landscape has, but the idea remains the same.  But first, let's answer those questions:

Here's a little disclosure before we begin:
Like any advice, you always need to take your league's scoring system into consideration.  My advice is geared towards a league that starts QB, WRx3, RBx2, TE, FLEX, K, DEF.  Scoring is (Pass TD-6, 25 pass yards-1, Rush/Receiving TD-6, 10 yards rush/receiving-1, .5 points per reception).

Who should I draft with the 2nd pick?
This is simple for me, it's Aaron Rodgers.  Now for the old school fantasy managers like myself, it aches me to throw out the idea of not going RB with my first pick, but the game has changed.  RB's are no longer the fantasy beasts, top tier QB's are.  I could go into all the statistics, but I don't have the time.  Just trust me on this one.  Just consider this stat-line for Rodgers: (250 yards/ 3 TD/ 1 INT).  Now most people would consider that a mediocre game for the league's best QB, but compare that to this stat-line for Ray Rice: (120 yards, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 30 yards, 1 TD).  That would be a great stat-line for any RB on your fantasy team.  Well the difference between Rodgers' average game and Rice's very good game is 3 points.  In 15 games, Rodgers' averaged 32.5 points/week, Rice averaged just over 21 points/week in his 16 games.  So there it is in a nutshell.  Rodgers is not only the more consistent fantasy scorer, but also the safer pick, given the health of RB's in the league.  Here is the segue into the next question.

Should I target a QB in round 1?
I already said I would take Rodgers with the 2nd pick, but I'd probably take him with the 1st pick.  I will answer this question by building upon my last answer.  Rodgers averaged 32.5 points/week, while the #10 fantasy QB averaged 18.1 points/week.  Rice averaged 21.0 points/week, while the #10 RB average 12.7 points/week.  It is just a matter of consistency.  A top tier QB is a better bet than a top tier RB.  I would take Rodgers, Brady or Brees in the 1st round without any hesitation.  However, my next few QB's (Stafford, Cutler, Newton) don't have the track record of consistency, so if you don't get one of the top 3, you should go elsewhere in round 1.

If I don't get a QB early, who should I target?
Outside of Rodgers/Brady/Brees, every QB has question marks going into this season.  You will probably see those 3, as well as Stafford and Newton gone in the first 2 rounds.  According to most rankings, you would be looking at Vick, Eli, Peyton, Romo and Rivers next.  These are solid QB's, but you are going to get better value with a WR/RB in rounds 3-6.  You'll likely see those guys go, and you'll probably see some joker take RG3 or Luck too early also.  By round 7, you probably will see 8-12 QB's get drafted, depending on the size of your league. At this point, you should pull the trigger on Cutler, Ryan, or Schaub (I have Cutler ranked as my #5 QB, but you'll see that in my rankings later).  If you don't get one of the perennial top tier QB's, be patient, there is plenty of value to get later.

What rookie will have the biggest impact?
Last year we saw rookies make a big impact (AJ Green, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, etc.) so there's no reason to say that rookies can't help out your fantasy team.  But I'll say this once, DRAFT ROOKIES AT YOUR OWN RISK!  There is a lot of hype and expectations for Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, David Wilson, RG3, Andrew Luck, Justin Blackmon, etc., but they all have one thing in common, they haven't played a regular season game yet.  When it comes to rookies, people overpay way too much.  That being said, Trent Richardson will indeed have the biggest impact of any rookie.  He will be running behind a very good offensive line and he will have a rookie QB, so you should expect a heavy work load.  He's not worth the possible 1st round pick it will take to get him, but if you are dead set on taking a rookie or he falls to the 3rd round, then I say he's your man.


Now that we have all that out of the way, here is the strategy I approach every draft with:

1. Don't Overpay For One Big Year
Every year, you see guys who haven't done much get taken way too early.  Let's take Eddie Royal for example.  In the 2008 season, rookie WR Eddie Royal broke out with 91 catches, 980 yards and 4 TD's.  The following season, people were taking him far ahead of consistent receivers like Donald Driver, who in 2008 had 74 catches, 1012 yards, 5 TD's in 2008, which was his 5th straight 1000 yard season.  Well as they say, the rest is history.  Driver went on to notch 70 catches, 1061 yards and 6 TD's in 2009.  As for Royal, he has notched a total of 115 catches, 1127 yards,  and 4 TD's over the last 3 seasons.  Ironically, Royal is a decent sleeper to bounce-back in San Diego this year, but when you have the choice, take the consistent producer over the one year wonder.

2. Pay Attention To Details
Situations change from year to year in the NFL.  Players get traded, coaches get fired, schemes get changed, so you have to pay attention to the details.  A lot of people are following the Peyton Manning situation closely to see if he's healthy, but I'm not concerned, because I'm not drafting him.  Peyton is one of the greatest QB's to play the game, but there are too many changes for it to work well.  He no longer has Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, so there goes any familiarity he had with his targets.  He is going from playing in ideal playing conditions indoors in Indianapolis to playing outside, up in the mountains of Denver.  The one knock on Peyton was his postseason performance, which coincidentally takes place in January, up in the snow and cold.  He could have a good year, but watch for the warning signs. 

3. Sexy Picks Don't Win Championships
Everyone wants to make the sexy pick that gets the draft room buzzing "that's a great pick bro" or "I  love that pick", but think of it this way, draft picks are like girlfriends.  Yeah, you want the girlfriend that is so hot that your friends invite her to hang out at the fantasy draft just to look at her, but in reality, the girlfriend that cooks the wings, serves up the appetizers, and delivers the beer to the draft room is by far the better pick.  So what does that mean this year? Ryan Mathews' #4 ranking in Yahoo! will get your friends excited at the draft, but #39 ranked Steven Jackson will continue to make you happy every week.

4. Take A Chance Late
I've been preaching consistency early in the draft, but if you look at my teams, you'll see I draft for upside after my first 6-7 picks.  Once you start to fill your starting spots, start looking at your sleepers.  Reaching for someone in the 8th round isn't going to hurt your team if you have a starting lineup full of consistent producers. It is all about risk vs. reward, so now is your time to make your splash.

5. Please Don't Take A Kicker Or Defense Early
I'm not going to talk about taking kickers much, because if you are not waiting until the last round to grab one, you probably aren't winning anyways.  Excluding Akers (ranked #20 going into the year) who had a huge year last year, 28 points separated the #2 and #16 kickers, only 1.75 points/week.  So please, don't draft a kicker until the last round, they aren't worth it.  Now let's get to defense.  It's a little trickier because defense strategy depends on the size of the league.  If you are in a 10 team league or smaller, you should be using the free agent pool to play matchups every week.  Most managers will have at most 2 defenses on their roster, meaning in a 10-team league, you will 14 defenses to choose from every week.  Now if your league is 12 teams or bigger, you probably don't want to go this route.  Your defense pool will probably be in the single digits, so getting a solid defense is much more necessary, but you still shouldn't take them early.  Keep in mind that defenses change every year in the NFL.  The New York Jets defense was the top ranked fantasy defense only 2 years ago, but now they are ranked #10.  You simply can't predict how well a defense will be, so why take the risk early?

I hope I still have your attention, because here are my rankings:

Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers
Tom Brady
Drew Brees
Matthew Stafford
Jay Cutler
Cam Newton
Michael Vick
Eli Manning
Matt Ryan
Tony Romo

Runningback
Arian Foster
LeSean McCoy
Ray Rice
Chris Johnson
Darren McFadden
Matt Forte
Maurice Jones-Drew
Adrian Peterson
Ryan Mathews
Trent Richardson

Wide Receiver
Calvin Johnson
Brandon Marshall
Larry Fitzgerald
Andre Johnson
AJ Green
Victor Cruz
Roddy White
Greg Jennings
Wes Welker
Hakeem Nicks

Tight End
Jimmy Graham
Rob Gronkowski
Vernon Davis
Antonio Gates
Jermichael Finley
Aaron Hernandez
Brandon Pettigrew
Fred Davis
Jason Witten
Owen Daniels

If you made it this far, thanks for reading.  Feel free to share you thoughts and good luck on draft day!

-Erd

US Open Picks

It's a week away now, and I'm really gearing up for the US Open.  Whether you play fantasy golf or like to do some sports betting, you probably would like to know who is going to be in contention before it starts.  Well I am here to tell you who I think will be in the picture on Sunday.  I did my best impression of Moneyball and used some statistical analysis to calculate who has the skill set to do well next weekend.  I could just list the best guys in the world and be done with it, but instead I'm giving you 4 golfers in the top 25, top 100 and outside the top 100 in the world rankings..  Do with this what you will.

Before I get into it, here are the factors I took into account to get my composite rankings:
Strokes Gained - Putting, Average Going For It Shot Distance, Average Distance After Going For It, Driving Accuracy, Scrambling, 3-Putt Avoidance, Last 3 Tournament success, Last 3 US Open success, World Rank

Golfers ranked 1-25:

Luke Donald - It should be no surprise to see the #1 player in the world on this list.  Donald comes into the US Open playing well, having finished 12th, 1st, 6th and 3rd in his past four tournaments.  All he needs now is a major. Donald is near the top in Strokes Gained - Putting, a stat which I used in my rankings.  His game is solid all-around right now and his style of play should fair well next weekend.  He'll make a lot of pars, but in the US Open that will keep him safely on the first page of the leaderboard.  Statistically, Donald is my pick to win it.

Tiger Woods - It's amazing how badly Tiger seems to be playing, yet he is hitting the ball better than ever and has 2 wins on the season.  He is ranked 1st in both total driving and ball striking for the first time since 2000, a year in which he happened to win 3 majors.  He also is ranked 1st in Average Going For It Shot Distance and Average Distance After Going For It, meaning he is leaving himself in great position off the tee and he is hitting it close from there.  The only thing that is holding Tiger back is putting.  If Tiger can improve his mental approach on the greens and start dropping some putts, he will win multiple majors this year.

Sergio Garcia - Like Donald, Garcia is also chasing that first major win.  He is getting close though, with top 10 finishes in 2 of his last 3 US Opens and top 12 finishes in each of his last 4 majors.  At one point it seemed it was only a matter of time before Sergio notched his first major, but now the window is closing for Sergio.  He's only 32, but he's not exactly in his prime either.  A top 10 finish for Sergio is very likely, but he will need to play his best golf to be in contention late.

Zach Johnson - Johnson is one of the hottest golfers on the Tour right now, with a win and two runner-up finishes in his last four tournaments.  He also has a major under his belt, unlike the majority of guys on this list.  Much like Donald, Johnson is not going to be posting low scores, but he will be relevant on Sunday.  In the end I don't see Johnson winning it, but he should have a solid showing.

Golfers ranked 26-100:
Jim Furyk - Every time it seems like Furyk is going to fade away, he comes back playing well.  Although he hasn't fared well in majors in the past couple years, Furyk comes into the US Open playing solid golf.  He won the US Open in 2003 and the FedEx cup in 2010, so Furyk clearly has what it takes to win.  According to my rankings, a top 3 finish for Furyk is likely.

Bo Van Pelt - Van Pelt is a name you see on the leaderboards often, just rarely on the top.  He only has one PGA Tour victory in his career, but his consistency has him at #30 in the world golf rankings.  Van Pelt already has 5 top 10 finishes this year and will take that success into the US Open.  A top 10 finish for Van Pelt is possible, and a top 20 is a certainty.

Nicolas Colsaerts - Nicolas has been playing great golf on the European Tour all year long, and is currently 6th in the Race To Dubai.  Although Europeans don't usually fare well at the US Open, Colsaerts is playing great golf, which can translate to any course.

Ian Poulter -  When you dress and act like Poulter does, you need to be able to back it up.  Unfortunately, it isn't just him and Tiger, as he once predicted.  That being said, Poulter does have a solid game and finished 7th at the Masters this year.  Perhaps his prophecy comes true and it's just him and Tiger on Sunday afternoon, but likely he'll be in the clubhouse well before Tiger's off the course.

Golfers ranked 100+:
Jonas Blixt - You probably haven't hear of this guy, but this Swede played golf at Florida State and joined the PGA Tour this season.  After a rough start, Blixt has finished 13th or better in four of his last 5 tournaments.  You may see Blixt post a low round or two and find himself in the top 15 at the end of the tournament.

Michael Thompson - He hasn't done anything spectacular this year, perhaps that's why he is outside the top 100, but statistically Thompson isn't far away.  He ranks near the top in Strokes Gained - Putting and both Going For It statistics.  If ha can improve on his driving accuracy and keep the ball in the fairway, He could sneak into the top 20.

Davis Love III - It may be unfair to put DL3 in this list, but the Ryder Cup captain has played well at the US Open lately.  DL3 finished T6 and T11 in 2010 and 2011 respectively.  He had a stretch from 1995-2005 where he finished in the top 10 in 19 of 44 majors.  It's unlikely that the 48-year-old will finish top 10 this year, but a top 20 is very possible.

Blake Adams - This guy is a total workaholic (if you get that reference).  Frankly, there is a limited amount of players to choose from outside the top 100, and Adams is just a longshot.  He did manage to finish in the top 20 in both the Memorial and The Players last month.  A top 20 finish in a major would be a success for the first timer.

Stay tuned for my complete rankings for the entire field.

Playoffs, and Injuries, and Triple Crowns! Oh My!

It's that time of the year again, the time when football news isn't actually on the forefront. Well, except for the two super divas TO and 85 who made headlines in their ongoing attempts to become relevant again.  The Stanley Cup Finals are underway, the NBA Conference Finals are underway, and it's almost Memorial Day, which marks the first significant point in the season for baseball.  There is also some horse racing action going on, so we better get going.

NHL vs. NBA
Whether you are primarily watching the NHL or NBA at this time of the year probably depends on where you live and the color of your skin.  This dichotomy amongst sports fan is unfortunate, as both sports have a lot to offer the casual fan.  I grew up favoring the NBA, but now I favor the NHL.  I can attribute this to one factor and that is parody.  If you want to watch the favorite team win, watch the NBA, but if you want an intriguing series, you have to favor the NHL.  Just look at the numbers. 

The favorites in the NBA playoffs were Miami out of the East and San Antonio/OK City (depending which bandwagon you are on) out of the West.  Clearly we are going to see these teams in the finals.  If you look at the playoffs in a whole, 8* out of the 10 series were won by the higher seed (the asterisk is for the Philly/Chicago series, which wasn't an upset after Rose went out).  Essentially, the only upset, if you can call it that, was the 5th seeded Clippers over the 4th seeded Grizzlies.

The NHL, in contrast, is what the casual fan should be watching.  We have the 8th seeded Kings against the 6th seeded Devils in the finals.  Unlike the NBA, 8 out of the 14 series were won by the lower seed.  Folks in New York and Vancouver probably aren't too happy, but who else doesn't like to see upsets?  Thanks to NBC there is actually good NHL playoff coverage this year, but unfortunately there is still is the ESPN bias towards the NBA.  The LA Clippers have gotten more airplay than the LA Kings.  If it weren't for Barry Melrose, I wouldn't see any NHL news on channel 1602.

So to channel my inter-Forrest Gump, "That's all I have to say about that."  I know everyone always loves my predictions, so I'll take the Kings in 5 games to win the Cup.  In the NBA, I'll take the Heat to sweep the Celtics and the Spurs to win it in 6.  I'll take the Heat over the Spurs in 7 in the Finals. 

MLB Injuries
The MLB is approaching what enthusiasts consider the first important date in the baseball season.  We are nearly 2 months in and hot bats are cooling off and slow starters are heating up.  Pujols' epic homer drought is now in the rear-view mirror as he now sits at 8 homers on the year.  The horrible Red Sox are just 2.5 games out of the division lead, which is still held by the Orioles, although they have lost 5 straight.  I'm not concerned about standings or statistics at this point of the year (except the possibility of a Triple Crown for Hamilton, which I will touch on later), I'm more concerned about the injuries that are piling up.  My Brewers have had more injuries than I can possibly remember, but fortunately our top 3 (Braun, Grienke, Gallardo) are healthy and going strong.  Unfortunately for other teams, injuries may shape up the league this year. 

Let's look at some of the big names that are on the shelf and how it will affect the league:

Mariano Rivera (out for season): This is going to hurt the Yankees down the stretch.  They still have the talent to win games, but I'm predicting they miss the playoffs this year.

Matt Kemp (TBD): Kemp just returned from the DL, but re-injured his hamstring and initial reports are that it might be worse this time.  The Dodgers were looking like they were going to run away with the division, but the loss of Kemp for another month or two could open the door for the Giants, who will be getting Pablo Sandoval back soon.

Evan Longoria (out til late June/early July): The loss of Longoria is immeasurable for the Rays.  Like Kemp, Longoria has a hamstring injury, which are easily re-aggravated.  I expect Longoria to miss the month of June.  If the Rays can hang on without him, they'll be fine, but if they drop a few games behind the Yankees and Red Sox, they may be on the outside come playoff time.

Roy Halladay (out til mid-July):  Let's start by saying mid-July is the optimistic timetable for Halladay.  Just when Phillies fans were starting to gear up for Utley and Howard to return, they lose one of the best pitchers in the game.  They are in the most competitive division in the NL, so this could possibly end the Phillies' season if Halladay has any setback.

Jered Weaver (out til late June/early July): The Angels received good news about Weaver's injury, but it still is likely he will miss at least 3-4 starts.  Things were looking up for the Angels as Pujols was heating up and Haren was getting dialed in, but the Angels should be able to weather this injury.  They likely will not make a run at Texas for the division, but a wild card spot should be attainable for the Angels.

Triple Crowns!
I'll Have Another or Josh Hamilton?  Will either be able to accomplish the rare feat? We'll know much sooner if I'll Have Another can get it done at Belmont, but that was almost in jeopardy today.  If you just read that article, you read how close horse racing came to having the worst thing possible happen.  Hamilton's fate is just as much on the edge.  A month ago Matt Kemp was in these talks, but a re-aggravated hamstring injury has put an end to that story.  Hamilton has an ever greater history of injuries.  First and foremost, Hamilton needs to stay healthy.  Second, he will likely need to hold off a couple veteran White Sox in Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn.  Third, he will need a little luck.  If we see one triple crown this year, that would be incredible, but if we saw two, it would be historic.  Once again, it's a great time to be a sports fan!!