Why Jerry Rice is not the Greatest WR of All Time

Blasphemy! Ridiculous! What an idiot! Does this guy know anything? I can't wait to comment...

  You likely had a few of those thoughts running through your head when you read the title of this post, and frankly, I don't blame you.  One doesn't have to go far to find a debate on where to rank sports figures in their sport. Whether it's a top ten players of all-time list on the internet, a statistical analysis of Jordan vs. Lebron, or the yearly top 5 quarterbacks of all-time debate on ESPN, there isn't a single sports figure whose all-time greatest tag isn't debated, except for Jerry Rice.
  For most sports, the debate begins between the generations.  If you bring up Lebron James, someone reminds you that Michael Jordan has 6 rings.  If you make a claim that Tiger is the most dominant golfer ever, someone reminds you that he still hasn't passed Jack.  When it comes to baseball, there are 3 different greatest home run hitters of all-time depending on who you talk to.  Favre, Manning and Marino are statistically the best quarterbacks of all-time, yet Elway, Montana and Brady have the superbowl rings.  Even when you try to to talk about boxing, this happens...



  It's easy to get sucked into debates like that and sometimes they can go on for hours.  Hell, I've seen Coming to America many, many times, but I've never noticed until now that Cuba Gooding Jr. is the boy getting the haircut.  Perhaps I was so into the discussion that my brain filtered out what I was seeing.  Nonetheless, while you can hear debates like this anywhere, you won't find an argument like this about the Greatest Receiver of All-Time.  There is always one answer - Jerry Rice.  Occasionally you'll get some idiot making a claim or the classic what-if Jerry Rice was drafted by the Jets and Al Toon went to the 49ers line, but it's time for someone to dig deeper.
  Now that I'm finished explaining how foolish it would be to argue against Jerry Rice, I'm going to do it.  I will start by saying I'm not calling Jerry Rice a compiler by any means, but it is my belief that Rice is considered the best receiver for simply two reasons.  First, he played 20 seasons, in which he was able to set pretty much every receiving record in NFL history.  Second, Rice had two of the greatests single seasons ever in 1987 when he recorded 22 TD's in only 12 games and in 1995, when he amassed 1,848 yards and 15 TD's on 122 receptions.  If you exrapolate his 1987 numbers into a 16 game season, it would be the greatest single season in NFL history, at any position.
  You can't argue that Rice put up career numbers that were untouchable for years, but I want to take a deeper look into Jerry Rice's per game production vs other great WR's of the modern era.  I gathered career statistics for arguably the top 5 wide receivers of my lifetime, including Rice.  Using simple math, I put these statistics into a season average based on a 16 game season.  Below are these season averages for the receivers which I won't name at this point.

 

 

		Rec/16gm		Yds/16gm		TD/16gm
Receiver A		92.8		1227.8		10.8
Receiver B		81.8		1209.0		10.4
Receiver C		72.1		1122.3		11.4
Receiver D		78.8		1164.1		11.2
Receiver E		75.3		950.4		8.9

  Before you go any further, rank those receivers based on those numbers.  All the receivers played a minimum of 13 seasons and had 900+ receptions, 13,500+ yards, and 125+ TD in their career.  By now you should already have an idea of what they should be ranked, so here is what the composite ranking shows:

		Rec/16gm		Yds/16gm		TD/16gm		Rank
Receiver A		1.0		1.0		3.0		1.7
Receiver B		2.0		2.0		4.0		2.7
Receiver C		5.0		4.0		1.0		3.3
Receiver D		3.0		3.0		2.0		2.7
Receiver E		4.0		5.0		5.0		4.7

   It seems pretty obvious that by just using the career averages Receiver A is the best statistical receiver.  But let's add another factor.  A great player typically puts up big numbers year in and year out, so I've also compiled the statistics for each receiver during his best 5 year stretch in the NFL.

		Rec/5yr		Yds/5yr		TD/5yr
Receiver A		563		7594		62
Receiver B		419		7298		83
Receiver C		456		7062		60
Receiver D		447		6465		65
Receiver E		475		5855		65

  Adding this factor into the above composite rank, you get the following.

		Rec/16	Yds/16	TD/16	Rec/5yr	Yds/5yr	TD/5yr	Comp Rank
Receiver A		1	1	3	1	1	4	1.8
Receiver B		2	2	4	5	2	1	2.7
Receiver C		5	4	1	3	3	5	3.5
Receiver D		3	3	2	4	4	2	3.0
Receiver E		4	5	5	2	5	2	3.8

  After those numbers are added, it still is obvious that Recevier A put up the best numbers per season and had the best 5 year stretch of any receiver in the group as well.  Now for the final set of data, the season best numbers for each receiver.  And since I know you are itching to see who these receivers are, I'll give you the names now.

		Best Rec		Best Yds		Best TD
Harrison		143		1722		15
Rice		122		1848		29*
Moss		111		1632		23
Owens		100		1451		16
Carter		122		1371		17

*Rice's 1987 season TD total was 22, but I used his projected total of 29 for a 16-game season.

  Now that you know who the receivers are, I'm sure you likely will re-rank them in your mind, but before you do so, here are the final composite rankings.

	Rec/16	Yds/16	TD/16	Rec/5yr	Yds/5yr	TD/5yr	Best Rec	Best Yds	Best TD	Comp Rank
Harrison	1	1	3	1	1	4	1	2	5	2.1
Rice	2	2	4	5	2	1	2	1	1	2.2
Moss	5	4	1	3	3	5	4	3	2	3.3
Owens	3	3	2	4	4	2	5	4	4	3.4
Carter	4	5	5	2	5	2	2	5	3	3.7

  If you haven't already realized, the player you have thought was the best receiver based on the stats above was not Rice, but lifelong Colt Marvin Harrison.  I repeat, Jerry Rice is not the greatest WR of all-time.  For those that remember, Marvin Harrison was an unstoppable weapon for Peyton Manning in his prime and should be headed to the hall of fame.  I can't argue against the numbers Rice compiled over his 20 year career, but I do have an answer for the arguments that are surely about to come.

Argument #1 - Marvin Harrison was made by Peyton Manning

It can be said that all great receivers need a quarterback to throw them the ball, but this argument is the weakest of them all.  While Marvin Harrison had Manning throwing to him, Rice had Joe Montana and Steve Young throughout his career.

Argument #2 - Teams throw more now than when they did when Rice played

This may very well be true, but the stats show that receiver production has been very similar in the past 25 years.  Here is a breakdown of several years and the amount of players that reached receiving milestones in those years:

	1000+ yards	100+ Receptions	10+ TD
1987	18	1	6
1991	15	9	10
1995	23	1	6
1999	26	2	8
2002	22	5	4
2007	23	6	9
2012	20	6	10

  First and foremost, I again extrapolated the numbers in Rice's historic 1987 season to account for the shortened schedule.  As you can see, receivers during Rice's best years put up similar numbers to receivers in Harrison's prime years. 

  So in conclusion, it is my belief that Marvin Harrison, not Jerry Rice, should be considered the greatest WR to play in the NFL.  Harrison clearly loacked the longevity that Rice had, but I myself don't put as much stock into career numbers as most do.  I likely won't get much backing on this, but when you break it down, the numbers don't lie.  Harrison is eligible for the hall of fame next year and it would be a travesty if he is not a first-ballot inductee.

Is It Time To End The Bo Ryan Era?

I'll preface by saying I have been one of Bo Ryan's biggest supporters since his arrival to Madison in 2001 but, like everything in life, there's a time to move on.  The Badgers' most recent early exit from the tournament may, and in my opinion should, fire up the talks of finding a replacement for the long-time successful Badgers' basketball coach.  While those who remember Badger basketball pre-Bennett likely find this to be blasphemous, the direction of our basketball program must be called into question. 

Don't get me wrong, Bo Ryan has turned Wisconsin basketball into a perennial top-25 program.  Under Ryan, the Badgers have been to the NCAA Tournament all 12 years, as well as claiming 3 Big Ten regular season titles and 2 Big Ten conference tournaments titles.  Ryan has led the Badgers to ten 20-win seasons and is among the top in winning percentage among all D-1 coaches.  Needless to say, Bo Ryan is one of the best coaches in the country when it comes to regular season success.

That success, however, has gone in the other direction over the past few seasons.  This is a direct result of two trends, one which is changing and another that isn't.  During the last 10 years, the Big Ten has gone from one of the worst conferences in college basketball to arguably the best.  Teams like Michigan State and Ohio State continue to find success come tournament time.  Programs like Indiana and Michigan are rising back to national powerhouses as well.  So why have the Badgers stayed stagnant, placing 3rd or 4th in the conference each of the past 5 seasons?  Well the answer is simple - Bo Ryan refuses to change.

Division-1 college basketball is not the same game it was when Ryan took over a Badgers squad a year removed from a Final Four run.  That Badgers Final Four team was the epitomy of team basketball, a style which won championships.  However, as time changed and basketball became more about recruiting and less about style of play, Bo Ryan refused to change with the times.  The state of Wisconsin watched Marquette guard Vander Blue single-handedly avoid an upset just a day before they watched Wisconsin get upset.  For those that remember, Blue had committed to Wisconsin only to decommit later because of comments by Wisconsin fans... well, sort of.  Some people believe that was solely the reason the Madison native change his mind, but others believe there is more to the story. 

It isn't a secret that Bo Ryan makes sure everyone knows that he is in charge.  Unfortunately, this approach can be a red flag for recruits looking at Wisconsin.  Vander Blue used the "message board" debacle as a reason to decommit from the Badgers, but Ryan's unwillingness to adjust his style to accomodate a player of Blue's talent clearly weighed into the decision.  Additionally, Ryan has not made any attempts to dismiss the notion that he refuses to recruit players that don't fit his system.  Now isn't it a coaches job to recruit the best players and teach them how to succeed in the current system?  Or possibly to modify the current system to get the most out of the players you have in it?

The tip of the iceberg, when it comes to Ryan's lack of appeal to recruits, may have come last spring.  It may be a story in the past for most fans, but it's a story that competing coaches have not forgot and likely make sure recruits don't either.  Jarrod Uthoff, a redshirt freshman, announced that he planned to transfer from the Badgers.  In response, Bo Ryan blocked schools from communicating with Uthoff and only backed off when he subsequently found himself showered with media scrutiny.  Eventually, Uthoff transferred to Iowa without issue, but the episode is clearly ammunition for Big Ten coaches recruting against Ryan.

Ryan simply has run his course in Wisconsin.  He has built upon Dick Bennett's Final Four run and turned Wisconsin basketball into a winning program, but there are no signs that the program can take the next step under Ryan's control.  In their 12 NCAA tournament appearances under Ryan, the Badgers have only advanced past the Sweet 16 once, back in 2005.  As you can see below, much of Ryan's success in the Big Ten also came prior to the 2006 season, when he still had some of Dick Bennetts recruits and Devin Harris, who is unquestionably the best player to ever play under Ryan.

Season	Team	Overall	Conference	Standing	Postseason
2001–02	Wisconsin	19–13	11–5	T-1st	NCAA 2nd Round
2002–03	Wisconsin	24–8	12–4	1st	NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2003–04	Wisconsin	25–7	12–4	T–2nd	NCAA 2nd Round
2004–05	Wisconsin	25–9	11–5	3rd	NCAA Elite Eight
2005–06	Wisconsin	19–12	9–7	T–4th	NCAA 1st Round
2006–07	Wisconsin	30–6	13–3	2nd	NCAA 2nd Round
2007–08	Wisconsin	31–5	16–2	1st	NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2008–09	Wisconsin	20–13	10–8	T–4th	NCAA 2nd Round
2009–10	Wisconsin	24–9	13–5	4th	NCAA 2nd Round
2010–11	Wisconsin	25–9	13–5	3rd	NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2011–12	Wisconsin	26–10	12–6	4th	NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2012–13	Wisconsin	23–11	12–6	T-4th	NCAA 2nd Round

If this isn't the end for Ryan, his last hope may rest on the shoulders of Sam Dekker. The Badgers have reached a plateau, one that only a superstar player, which goes against everything Ryan preaches, can get them beyond.  This may all just be the ranting of an upset Badger fan, but it should raise these questions to all Badger fans:

Are 20 win seasons and NCAA tournament bids enough?

Is Bo Ryan capable of taking the Wisconsin program to the next level?



I surely don't think so...