Go Pack Go! Analyzing a "Boring" draft

What about the Packers?

The 2012 NFL draft has come and gone, and teams have made the next steps towards their futures.  Some grasp at straws as they spiral downward, some toss their life savings behind unproven potential, and some just make damn smart decisions.  The latter are usually the least talked about drafts, the "boring" picks.  Nothing exciting happening here, just good football decisions.  Call me a homer, but I see this in the Green Bay Packers 2012 draft.  Let's keep in mind that this team was 1 hung over Sunday from running the table in 2012.  They are not losing a whole lot on the offensive side of the ball.  If anything, I think they are going to be better than last year.  They had no real reason to address any issues in this draft, and yet they come away with 2 solid players in the late afternoon rounds on Saturday.  A quarterback who will build himself and develop himself behind the league's best.  No pressure, no push, just learn.  They were also able to bring in a promising tackle with the same stipulations.  They won't need to get immediate contribution, but in 2 year we could have a starting tackle.  Those are really the sexy picks of the Packers.  From there, it just gets boring... and good.

The best offensive team in NFL history could have walked to the Super Bowl with any form of an NFL -ish defense.  Unfortunately, they did not have one.  The Packers saw the true value of Cullen Jenkins and Nick Collins this past season.  Cullen made EVERY linebacker better by keeping guys off them, and was able to penetrate the backfield occasionally.  He needed to be blocked.  Last year, BJ Raji, Clay Matthews, AJ Hawk... they all felt the pain of no Cullen plugging the front.  With Nick Collins in the lineup, Sam Shields looked like a pro-bowl candidate.  Morgan Burnett simply could not be what Collins was, and his absence will be the most difficult to address.  But remember, this defense doesn't need to be the NFL's best... it just can't be the NFL's worst.  The Packers addressed some concerns immediately in Free Agency.  No, they didn't pay top dollar to the sexy free agents... they paid bargain prices for guys to come in and work for a job.  Working for your job will bring the best out of anyone.  At the very least, Anthony Hargrove and Daniel Muir will force those around them to play to their potential.

Fast forward to today, the week following the NFL draft.  Ted Thompson immediately addressed the most glaring concern by picking Nick Perry and Jerel Worthy.  Perry can be a force on the edge, and will make an immediate impact.  Having a threat opposite Clay Matthews instantly makes this defense better than last season.  Throw in Worthy, who has the potential to work inside, take up space, and still get in the backfield (see Jenkins, Cullen).  Toss in Mike Daniels, and we have an all out battle just to make this roster.  The presence of the newfound pass rush instantly improves the Packers' entire defense.  Insert Casey Hayward.  A solid corner with a nice ceiling, not to mention this kid is the definition of a ball hawk.  Oh yeah, he gets to learn from Charles Woodson.... If Hayward is able to push for a starting role, he may actually move Chuck to the back of the defense, solving the problem of replacing Collins.  Jerron McMillian can be a special teams contributor immediately, and can help with depth in the secondary.  Don't expect to hear his name a lot, but expect him to grow.  The biggest intrigue comes in Terrell Manning.  There was once a time when this kid was a top prospect, and he slid a ways down to land in Green Bay.  He will be a special team specialist his first year, but he has the potential to be a big contributor in Green Bay.  I think we look back at this draft in 4 years, and Manning is listed as a big pick by the Packers. (I mean come on, he's got the #1 thing every star needs in GB... dreads!)

Overall, a very boring draft for the Packers... and a boring draft typically means a good draft.  Look for the Packers to be Super Bowl favorites yet again this season.

NFL Draft - Round 1 Draft Grades

Although the first round flew by, there was plenty of action.  Some picks had me shaking my head and some had me shaking my fist.  Here's my thoughts, pick by pick, as well as my winners, losers, steals and busts of the first round.

1. Indianapolis Colts - QB Andrew Luck, Stanford

This was a no-brainer.  Luck is the best QB prospect since Elway and he will live up to the hype.

Grade: A+

2. Washington Redskins - QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor

I'm not as big on RG3 as others, but if he throws first, runs second, he will be in the league for quite some time.  The cost of 2 first round picks may be a little steep though.

Grade: A-

3. Cleveland Browns - RB Trent Richardson, Alabama

The Browns gave up 3 picks to move up 1 spot to secure Richardson.  I'm not sure they wouldn't have been better off taking Blackmon and going for a RB in Round 2, but they need playmakers.  They aren't going to find playmakers with those 4th-7th round picks and Richardson is a beast.

Grade: A-

4. Minnesota Vikings - OT Matt Kalil, USC

The Vikings maneuvered the draft perfectly.  They got 3 additional picks and still got the guy they were going to take anyway.  Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Ndamakong Suh, etc. . . they needed to protect Ponder from the pass rushing beasts in the NFC North.

Grade: A

5. Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State

Blackmon is the type of guy that doesn't need single coverage to make plays.  He's a T.O. caliber receiver and will immediately make that offense better, assuming their QB can get the ball to him.

Grade: A

6. Dallas Cowboys - CB Morris Claiborne, LSU

The Cowboys gave up a 2nd round pick to get Claiborne.  I absolutely love Claiborne, but I love 2nd round picks more. I think they overpaid to move up, so that knocks their grade down.

Grade: B+

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - S Mark Barron, Alabama

I know this guy's draft value kept rising, but I think that it was more of a product of scarcity at the safety position than talent-related.  They did manage to get a 4th round pick, but they should've stayed at #5 and taken Claiborne.

Grade: C

8. Miami Dolphins - QB Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M

I know they have ties to this guy and really like him, but they made a mistake.  It seems to happen far too often, but teams get so desperate to find that franchise QB that they overlook glaring flaws.  Brandon Weeden would've gotten a better grade here, 

Grade: D-

9. Carolina Panthers - ILB Luke Kuechly, Boston College

Kuechly may be one of the more underrated players in the draft.  That likely is because he's not a flashy guy who plays at a position that rarely has "sexy" picks.  Fletcher Cox would've been a great choice here as well, but the Panthers got a guy that is just as safe a pick.

Grade: A

10. Buffalo Bills - CB Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina

Gilmore is a solid pick for the Bills.  The Bills had a solid defense and Gilmore will make them even better.  If they target offensive line and get another receiver tomorrow, they will be a team to watch in 2012.

Grade: B+

11. Kansas City Chiefs - DT Dontari Poe, Memphis

When it comes to defensive line, I don't take any stock in combine results.  The best attribute for a defensive lineman is a high motor, which unfortunately is not measured at the combine.  Poe just didn't show up in game film, which for a guy with his numbers means he doesn't have the motor needed at that position. Fletcher Cox was hands down the better choice here.

Grade: C-

12. Philadelphia Eagles - DT Fletcher Cox, Mississippi State

There isn't much to say about this pick, which is a good thing.  The Eagles moved up to get a guy that really shouldn't have been there at #12.  Cox was my top defensive lineman in the draft.

Grade: A

13. Arizona Cardinal - WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame

I will start by saying that I don't believe Floyd should've gone this high.  I think he will struggle against top corners in the NFL, but with that being said, he is going to succeed early in his career because he won't be facing any team's best corner with Larry Fitzgerald on the other side.  I don't like the player, but the pick actually works for them.

Grade: B

14. St. Louis Rams - DT Michael Brockers, LSU

I mentioned earlier how much I love 2nd round picks.  The fact that the Rams ultimately moved from #2 to #14 and got two 2nd round picks and first round picks in 2013 and 2014 is astonishing.  They could have taken anyone at this spot and have gotten a good a grade, but on top of those picks they got a solid defensive lineman with a high ceiling.

Grade: A+

15. Seattle Seahawks - OLB Bruce Irvin, West Virginia

I liked Irvin's upside, but in the late 2nd or 3rd round, not the middle of the 1st.  Many described Irvin as the best pass rush specialist in the draft, which I can't argue, but he also has some baggage.  Seattle simply reached way too far for a guy they probably could have gotten in the 2nd round.  When so many teams were willing to trade up, they just did a poor job of draft management.

Grade: F

16. New York Jets - DE Quinton Coples, North Carolina

I already made it known that I have an issue with any defensive lineman that has his motor questioned. The knock on Coples is exactly that.  People question his motor and accuse him of taking plays off.  I really can't overlook that, even for the most athletically talented of players.

Grade: C-

17. Cincinnati Bengals - CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama

I thought the Bengals would go offensive lineman here and target Janoris Jenkins with their second pick in round 1.  I'd like to be the first to congratulate the Bengals for finally avoiding the guy with character issue.  I think Kirkpatrick has the ability to become a solid corner in the NFL.

Grade: B

18. San Diego Chargers - DE Melvin Ingram, South Carolina

San Diego may have gotten one of the best value picks in the 1st round.  Ingram will immediately improve the Chargers' defensive front.  That's all I have to say about that.

Grade: A

19. Chicago Bears - OLB Shea McClellin, Boise State

I was surprised to see McClellin go this high, especially ahead of Chandler Jones.  I thought McClellin would be a perfect fit for the Packers or Patriots later in the 1st round, but clearly the Bears liked him a lot.  McClellin is a good pick, but the Bears passed on some better players at this spot.

Grade: C+

20. Tennessee Titans - WR Kendall Wright, Baylor

I'm not sure if Wright has thanked RG3 for getting him drafted in the 1st round, but he should.  Wright is a talent, but not a 1st round talent.  It is common to see a receivers' draft stock rise with his QB.  If the Titans really wanted to go with a WR, they should've gone with Stephen Hill, who I had just behind  Blackmon in my receiver rankings.  Had Hill been in that Baylor offense last year, he would've been the top receiver in this draft.

Grade: D+

21. New England Patriots - DE Chandler Jones, Syracuse

I was disappointed when the Patriots moved up to take Jones, because I wanted my Packers to get him.  Jones has gone up draft boards in the past month, but unlike many other players, he deserved to be headed in that direction.  Belichick & Co. continue to make the right moves on draft day.

Grade: A

22. Cleveland Browns - QB Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State

I had this in my mock draft and I was happy to see it happen.  Weeden should not only compete with McCoy for the starting job, but he should win it.  Weeden is going to be a better quarterback in the NFL than Tannehill, so clearly the Browns did well getting him at #22.  If they can get him a dynamic receiver like Stephen Hill in the 2nd round, watch out for the Browns' offense.

Grade: A-

23. Detroit Lions - OT Riley Reiff, Iowa

Many people had Reiff going as high as #10 in their mocks, including yours truly.  The game has gone from a running game to a passing game, but it still is won in the trenches.  The Lions got a top-15 player and an offensive lineman that can step in immediately.  You can never have enough offensive lineman, so when in doubt, take one.  Especially when your teams' success is directly linked to keeping your quarterback healthy for the whole season.

Grade: A

24. Pittsburgh Steelers - OG David DeCastro, Stanford

Basically it's the same thing I said for the last pick.  DeCastro is a guy that you can plug in immediately.  He will help improve the Steelers' run game drastically.

Grade: A

25: New England Patriots - ILB Dont'a Hightower, Alabama

Once again the Patriots moved up to grab a guy that probably shouldn't have still been on the board.  Hightower is going to be a presence in the middle of the Patriots defense and is well worth the 4th round pick he cost.  

Grade: A

26. Houston Texans - DE Whitney Mercilus, Illinois

I've seen Mercilus go in the top-10 in some mock drafts and in the 2nd round in others, but this spot seems about right.  Mercilus doesn't amaze me, but I also don't see any glaring flaws.  I would've taken Andre Branch or Courtney Upshaw ahead of Mercilus, but he's still a solid pick.

Grade: B

27. Cincinnati Bengals - OG Kevin Zeitler, Wisconsin

Do you expect me to say anything bad about a fellow Badger?  Good, because I won't.  Zeitler is another solid lineman from a program that produces NFL-ready lineman on a yearly basis.  Wisconsin is one of the best rushing teams in college football year in and year out, yet they haven't had a running back drafted in 5 years.  This is testament to the talent of guys like Zeitler and Peter Konz, whose name you should hear called in the 2nd round.

Grade: B+

28. Green Bay Packers - DE Nick Perry, USC

The Packers got the guy I absolutely wanted them to get.  I started to think Chandler Jones was a possibility, but in the end they got another solid pass-rusher from USC.  The presence of Perry is going to likely double or even triple Clay Matthews' sack total in 2012.  The added pressure on the quarterback will also take pressure of the secondary.  I could keep going, but you get the picture.

Grade: A

29. Minnesota Vikings - S Harrison Smith, Notre Dame

This guy started to grow on me after some prodding.  As I mentioned earlier when discussing the Mark Barron pick, this draft is very thin at safety.  The Vikings clearly knew this and used a 4th round pick to get back into the 1st round to pick up Smith.  I still believe Smith would've been a late 2nd round pick in another year, but he definitely is going to bring some intelligence to the Vikings.

Grade: B

30. San Francisco 49ers - WR A.J. Jenkins, Illinois

I loved the receiver named AJ in last year's draft and he really panned out.  Unfortunately, I have similar feelings for another receiver in this draft, but his name is Stephen, not AJ.  I actually had Alshon Jeffery, Rueben Randle and Brian Quick all ahead of Jenkins, so clearly this was not the guy the 49ers should've taken.  I pride myself in my ability to evaluate receivers early in the draft, so I have no hesitations in grading this pick poorly.

Grade: D-

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - RB Doug Martin, Boise State

I thought Martin would go the Giants at #32 and it appears they were going to go that route, so the Bucs were wise to swap 4th rounders with the Broncos to get ahead of the Giants to get Martin.  Martin is a back that can do it all, opposite of what they have right now in LaGarrette Blount.  The cost was right and the pick was right.

Grade: B+

32. New York Giants - RB David Wilson, Virginia Tech

I believe the Giants were planning on having their choice of Martin and Wilson at this spot.  Had that been the case, they would've been wise to move back 5-10 picks.  Nonetheless, they needed another running back to fill the shoes of Brandon Jacobs.  I still think the Giants could've picked up another pick and still have gotten Wilson in the 2nd round, but they still did well.

Grade: B

Winners

Patriots - The Patriots know they are a few playmakers on the defensive side of the ball from winning a superbowl.  They managed to get two such playmakers in the 1st round for only the cost of a 3rd round and 4th round pick. They only have two 2nd round picks left in this year's draft, but if they get a defensive back and an offensive lineman, they will have done everything they needed.

Rams - I already touched on the reason I believe the Rams were winners in the 1st round.  The moved down 12 spots, and in return, received two 2nd round picks in this year's draft (giving them 3 total), a 1st round pick in the 2013 draft, and a 1st round pick in the 2014 draft.  Still, they managed to get Michael Brockers.  They are in very good position to be on this list again tomorrow, with those three 2nd round picks.

Losers

Seahawks - Bruce Irvin may turn out to be a solid player, but it still can't be overlooked that they could've moved back to get him or even have gotten him in the 2nd round.  They passed on the chance to take Fletcher Cox, which they will regret.  Pete Carroll is a great recruiter, but his draft strategy should be questioned.

Dolphins - I'm not gonna say much here, you can read my thoughts in the bust below.

Round 1 Bust

Ryan Tannehill - It's plain and simple, Tannehill isn't the next Dan Marino.  Hell, he isn't even the next Chad Henne (on a good day).  There is something that Kiper, McShay, Mike Sherman, and the numerous random blog writers have in common, they all evaluate upside too heavily.  Tannehill is raved about for his athleticism and his size, but they have nothing to do with being a quarterback in the NFL.  The quarterback position has changed drastically.  You no longer can get by with a game manager, you need an elite quarterback.  In the past, teams drafted quarterbacks to cultivate them into solid game managers 3 years down the road.  Those guys aren't the guys that can win you a superbowl.  I could go on forever here, but I'll just wait 5 years to say I told you so.

Round 1 Steal

David DeCastro/Melvin Ingram - I'm tired and want to go to bed, so this is going to be short.  These 2 guys are going to contribute immediately to their teams, and unlike almost every other team in the 1st round, they didn't have to give up anything to get them.  These players fell and San Diego and Pittsburgh were rewarded for the patience.  I'll sum it up by reminding everyone how quickly Pittsburgh submitted their pick.  That should tell you how surprised they were to see DeCastro still there at #24.